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Register a new userNetwork-Based Prediction of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic Outbreak in the Chinese Province Hubei
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At the moment of writing (12 February, 2020), the future evolution of the 2019-nCoV virus is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the 2019-nCoV epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is composed of the cities in Hubei and their interactions (e.g., traffic flow). However, the precise interactions between cities is unknown and must be inferred from observing the epidemic. We propose a network-based method to predict the future prevalence of the 2019-nCoV virus in every city. Our results indicate that network-based modelling is beneficial for an accurate forecast of the epidemic outbreak.
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The initial cluster of severe pneumonia cases that triggered the 2019-nCoV epidemic was identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019. While early cases of the disease were linked to a wet market, human-to-human transmission has driven the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for modelers, as limited data are available on the early growth trajectory, and the epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus are yet to be fully elucidated. We provide timely short-term forecasts of the cumulative number of confirmed reported cases in Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, and for the overall trajectory in China, excluding the province of Hubei. We collect daily reported cumulative case data for the 2019-nCoV outbreak for each Chinese province from the National Health Commission of China. Here, we provide 5, 10, and 15 day forecasts for five consecutive days, February 5th through February 9th, with quantified uncertainty based on a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model. Our most recent forecasts reported here based on data up until February 9, 2020, largely agree across the three models presented and suggest an average range of 7,409-7,496 additional cases in Hubei and 1,128-1,929 additional cases in other provinces within the next five days. Models also predict an average total cumulative case count between 37,415 - 38,028 in Hubei and 11,588 - 13,499 in other provinces by February 24, 2020. Mean estimates and uncertainty bounds for both Hubei and other provinces have remained relatively stable in the last three reporting dates (February 7th - 9th). Our forecasts suggest that the containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission and that the epidemic growth has slowed in recent days.
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