No Arabic abstract
We consider expected performances based on max-stable random fields and we are interested in their derivatives with respect to the spatial dependence parameters of those fields. Max-stable fields, such as the Brown--Resnick and Smith fields, are very popular in spatial extremes. We focus on the two most popular unbiased stochastic derivative estimation approaches: the likelihood ratio method (LRM) and the infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA). LRM requires the multivariate density of the max-stable field to be explicit, and IPA necessitates the computation of the derivative with respect to the parameters for each simulated value. We propose convenient and tractable conditions ensuring the validity of LRM and IPA in the cases of the Brown--Resnick and Smith field, respectively. Obtaining such conditions is intricate owing to the very structure of max-stable fields. Then we focus on risk and dependence measures, which constitute one of the several frameworks where our theoretical results can be useful. We perform a simulation study which shows that both LRM and IPA perform well in various configurations, and provide a real case study that is valuable for the insurance industry.
Let $ X_{lambda_1},ldots,X_{lambda_n}$ be dependent non-negative random variables and $Y_i=I_{p_i} X_{lambda_i}$, $i=1,ldots,n$, where $I_{p_1},ldots,I_{p_n}$ are independent Bernoulli random variables independent of $X_{lambda_i}$s, with ${rm E}[I_{p_i}]=p_i$, $i=1,ldots,n$. In actuarial sciences, $Y_i$ corresponds to the claim amount in a portfolio of risks. In this paper, we compare the largest claim amounts of two sets of interdependent portfolios, in the sense of usual stochastic order, when the variables in one set have the parameters $lambda_1,ldots,lambda_n$ and $p_1,ldots,p_n$ and the variables in the other set have the parameters $lambda^{*}_1,ldots,lambda^{*}_n$ and $p^*_1,ldots,p^*_n$. For illustration, we apply the results to some important models in actuary.
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for the evolution of the volatility, and a flexible sequential volatility updating is employed. Being computationally fast, the resulting estimation procedure is particularly suitable for on-line forecasting. Three performance measures are discussed in the context of model selection: the log-likelihood criterion, the mean of standardized one-step forecast errors, and sequential Bayes factors. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to a data set comprising eight exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar.
Max-stable random fields are very appropriate for the statistical modelling of spatial extremes. Hence, integrals of functions of max-stable random fields over a given region can play a key role in the assessment of the risk of natural disasters, meaning that it is relevant to improve our understanding of their probabilistic behaviour. For this purpose, in this paper, we propose a general central limit theorem for functions of stationary max-stable random fields on $mathbb{R}^d$. Then, we show that appropriate functions of the Brown-Resnick random field with a power variogram and of the Smith random field satisfy the central limit theorem. Another strong motivation for our work lies in the fact that central limit theorems for random fields on $mathbb{R}^d$ have been barely considered in the literature. As an application, we briefly show the usefulness of our results in a risk assessment context.
In this paper, we analyze the convergence rate of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for crossed random effects models. Our results apply to a substantially larger range of models than previous works, including models that incorporate missingness mechanism and unbalanced level data. The theoretical tools involved in our analysis include a connection between relaxation time and autoregression matrix, concentration inequalities, and random matrix theory.
We derive concentration inequalities for functions of the empirical measure of large random matrices with infinitely divisible entries and, in particular, stable ones. We also give concentration results for some other functionals of these random matrices, such as the largest eigenvalue or the largest singular value.