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Register a new userContact Adaption during Epidemics: A Multilayer Network Formulation Approach
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People change their physical contacts as a preventive response to infectious disease propagations. Yet, only a few mathematical models consider the coupled dynamics of the disease propagation and the contact adaptation process. This paper presents a model where each agent has a default contact neighborhood set, and switches to a different contact set once she becomes alert about infection among her default contacts. Since each agent can adopt either of two possible neighborhood sets, the overall contact network switches among 2^N possible configurations. Notably, a two-layer network representation can fully model the underlying adaptive, state-dependent contact network. Contact adaptation influences the size of the disease prevalence and the epidemic threshold---a characteristic measure of a contact network robustness against epidemics---in a nonlinear fashion. Particularly, the epidemic threshold for the presented adaptive contact network belongs to the solution of a nonlinear Perron-Frobenius (NPF) problem, which does not depend on the contact adaptation rate monotonically. Furthermore, the network adaptation model predicts a counter-intuitive scenario where adaptively changing contacts may adversely lead to lower network robustness against epidemic spreading if the contact adaptation is not fast enough. An original result for a class of NPF problems facilitate the analytical developments in this paper.
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A multilayer network depicts different types of interactions among the same set of nodes. For example, protease networks consist of five to seven layers, where different layers represent distinct types of experimentally confirmed molecule interactions among proteins. In a multilayer protease network, the co-expression layer is obtained through the meta-analysis of transcriptomic data from various sources and platforms. While in some researches the co-expression layer is in turn represented as a multilayered network, a fundamental problem is how to obtain a single-layer network from the corresponding multilayered network. This process is called multilayer network aggregation. In this work, we propose a maximum a posteriori estimation-based algorithm for multilayer network aggregation. The method allows to aggregate a weighted multilayer network while conserving the core information of the layers. We evaluate the method through an unweighted friendship network and a multilayer gene co-expression network. We compare the aggregated gene co-expression network with a network obtained from conflated datasets and a network obtained from averaged weights. The Von Neumann entropy is adopted to compare the mixedness of the three networks, and, together with other network measurements, shows the effectiveness of the proposes method.
In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different geographic scales, we investigate the relationship between human mobility, which subsumes many facets of the populations response to the changing situation, and the spread of COVID-19. Leveraging mobile phone data from February through September 2020, we find a striking relationship between the decrease in mobility flows and the net reproduction number. We find that the time needed to switch off mobility and bring the net reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1 is about one week. Moreover, we observe a strong relationship between the number of days spent above such threshold before the lockdown-induced drop in mobility flows and the total number of infections per 100k inhabitants. Estimating the statistical effect of mobility flows on the net reproduction number over time, we document a 2-week lag positive association, strong in March and April, and weaker but still significant in June. Our study demonstrates the value of big mobility data to monitor the epidemic and inform control interventions during its unfolding.
Information flow during catastrophic events is a critical aspect of disaster management. Modern communication platforms, in particular online social networks, provide an opportunity to study such flow, and a mean to derive early-warning sensors, improving emergency preparedness and response. Performance of the social networks sensor method, based on topological and behavioural properties derived from the friendship paradox, is studied here for over 50 million Twitter messages posted before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We find that differences in users network centrality effectively translate into moderate awareness advantage (up to 26 hours); and that geo-location of users within or outside of the hurricane-affected area plays significant role in determining the scale of such advantage. Emotional response appears to be universal regardless of the position in the network topology, and displays characteristic, easily detectable patterns, opening a possibility of implementing a simple sentiment sensing technique to detect and locate disasters.
Multilayer networks allow for modeling complex relationships, where individuals are embedded in multiple social networks at the same time. Given the ubiquity of such relationships, these networks have been increasingly gaining attention in the literature. This paper presents the first analysis of the robustness of centrality measures against strategic manipulation in multilayer networks. More specifically, we consider an evader who strategically chooses which connections to form in a multilayer network in order to obtain a low centrality-based ranking-thereby reducing the chance of being highlighted as a key figure in the network-while ensuring that she remains connected to a certain group of people. We prove that determining an optimal way to hide is NP-complete and hard to approximate for most centrality measures considered in our study. Moreover, we empirically evaluate a number of heuristics that the evader can use. Our results suggest that the centrality measures that are functions of the entire network topology are more robust to such a strategic evader than their counterparts which consider each layer separately.
We study social networks and focus on covert (also known as hidden) networks, such as terrorist or criminal networks. Their structures, memberships and activities are illegal. Thus, data about covert networks is often incomplete and partially incorrect, making interpreting structures and activities of such networks challenging. For legal reasons, real data about active covert networks is inaccessible to researchers. To address these challenges, we introduce here a network generator for synthetic networks that are statistically similar to a real network but void of personal information about its members. The generator uses statistical data about a real or imagined covert organization network. It generates randomized instances of the Stochastic Block model of the network groups but preserves this network organizational structure. The direct use of such anonymized networks is for training on them the research and analytical tools for finding structure and dynamics of covert networks. Since these synthetic networks differ in their sets of edges and communities, they can be used as a new source for network analytics. First, they provide alternative interpretations of the data about the original network. The distribution of probabilities for these alternative interpretations enables new network analytics. The analysts can find community structures which are frequent, therefore stable under perturbations. They may also analyze how the stability changes with the strength of perturbation. For covert networks, the analysts can quantify statistically expected outcomes of interdiction. This kind of analytics applies to all complex network in which the data are incomplete or partially incorrect.
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