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Register a new userExpected Yields of Planet discoveries from the TESS primary and extended missions
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We present a prediction of the transiting exoplanet yield of the TESS primary mission, in order to guide follow-up observations and science projects utilizing TESS discoveries. Our new simulations differ from previous work by using (1) an updated photometric noise model that accounts for the nominal pointing jitter estimated through simulation prior to launch, (2) improved stellar parameters based on Gaia mission Data Release 2, (3) improved empirically-based simulation of multi-planet systems, (4) a realistic method of selecting targets for 2-minute exposures, and (5) a more realistic geometric distortion model to determine the sky region that falls on TESS CCDs. We also present simulations of the planet yield for three suggested observing strategies of the TESS extended mission. We report ~$10^4$ planets to be discovered by the TESS primary mission, as well as an additional $sim 2000$ planets for each year of the three extended mission scenarios we explored. We predict that in the primary mission, TESS will discover about 3500 planets with Neptune size and smaller, half of which will orbit stars with TESS magnitudes brighter than 12. Specifically, we proposed a new extended mission scenario that centers Camera 3 on the ecliptic pole (C3PO), which will yield more long period planets as well as moderately irradiated planets that orbit F, G, and K stars.
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Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that $25.5^{+0.7}_{-0.7}$ of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that $11.7^{+0.3}_{-0.3}$ of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for $sim$3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of $sim$125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will perform a two-year survey of nearly the entire sky, with the main goal of detecting exoplanets smaller than Neptune around bright and nearby stars. There do not appear to be any fundamental obstacles to continuing science operations for at least several years after the two-year Primary Mission. To provide a head start to those who will plan and propose for such a mission, we present simulations of exoplanet detections in a third year of TESS operations. Our goal is to provide a helpful reference for the exoplanet-related aspects of any Extended Mission, while recognizing this will be only one part of a larger community discussion of the scientific goals. We use Monte Carlo simulations to try and anticipate the quantities and types of planets that would be detected in each of 6 plausible scenarios for a one-year Extended Mission following the two-year Primary Mission. We find that: (1) there is no sharp fall-off in the planet discovery rate in the third year; (2) the quantity of newly detected sub-Neptune radius planets does not depend strongly on the schedule of pointings; (3) an important function of an Extended Mission would be improving our ability to predict the times of future transits and occultations of TESS-detected planets.
We present the results from the first two years of the Planet Hunters TESS citizen science project, which identifies planet candidates in the TESS data by engaging members of the general public. Over 22,000 citizen scientists from around the world visually inspected the first 26 Sectors of TESS data in order to help identify transit-like signals. We use a clustering algorithm to combine these classifications into a ranked list of events for each sector, the top 500 of which are then visually vetted by the science team. We assess the detection efficiency of this methodology by comparing our results to the list of TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) and show that we recover 85 % of the TOIs with radii greater than 4 Earth radii and 51 % of those with radii between 3 and 4 Earth radii. Additionally, we present our 90 most promising planet candidates that had not previously been identified by other teams, 73 of which exhibit only a single transit event in the TESS light curve, and outline our efforts to follow these candidates up using ground-based observatories. Finally, we present noteworthy stellar systems that were identified through the Planet Hunters TESS project.
We carried out a systematic study of full-orbit phase curves for known transiting systems in the northern ecliptic sky that were observed during Year 2 of the TESS primary mission. We applied the same methodology for target selection, data processing, and light-curve fitting as we did in our Year 1 study. Out of the 15 transiting systems selected for analysis, seven - HAT-P-7, KELT-1, KELT-9, KELT-16, KELT-20, Kepler-13A, and WASP-12 - show statistically significant secondary eclipses and day-night atmospheric brightness modulations. Small eastward dayside hotspot offsets were measured for KELT-9b and WASP-12b. KELT-1, Kepler-13A, and WASP-12 show additional phase-curve variability attributed to the tidal distortion of the host star; the amplitudes of these signals are consistent with theoretical predictions. We combined occultation measurements from TESS and Spitzer to compute dayside brightness temperatures, TESS-band geometric albedos, Bond albedos, and phase integrals for several systems. The new albedo values solidify the previously reported trend between dayside temperature and geometric albedo for planets with $1500<T_{mathrm{day}}<3000$ K. For Kepler-13Ab, we carried out an atmospheric retrieval of the full secondary eclipse spectrum, which revealed a non-inverted temperature-pressure profile, significant H$_{2}$O and K absorption in the near-infrared, evidence for strong optical atmospheric opacity due to sodium, and a confirmation of the high geometric albedo inferred from our simpler analysis. We explore the implications of the phase integrals (ratios of Bond to geometric albedos) for understanding exoplanet clouds. We also report updated transit ephemerides for all of the systems studied in this work.
We set out to look at the overlap between CHEOPS sky coverage and TESS primary mission monotransits to determine what fraction of TESS monotransits may be observed by CHEOPS. We carry out a simulation of TESS transits based on the stellar population in TICv8 in the primary TESS mission. We then select the monotransiting candidates and determine their CHEOPS observing potential. We find that TESS will discover approximately 433 monotransits during its primary mission. Using a baseline observing efficiency of 40% we then find that 387 of these ($sim$89%) will be observable by CHEOPS with an average observing time of $sim$60 days per year. Based on the individual observing times and orbital periods of each system we predict that CHEOPS could observe additional transits for approximately 302 of the 433 TESS primary mission monotransits ($sim$70%). Given that CHEOPS will require some estimate of period before observing a target we estimate that up to 250 ($sim$58%) TESS primary mission monotransits could have solved periods prior to CHEOPS observations using a combination of photometry and spectroscopy.
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