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Register a new userPredicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions
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Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that $25.5^{+0.7}_{-0.7}$ of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that $11.7^{+0.3}_{-0.3}$ of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for $sim$3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of $sim$125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.
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We present a prediction of the transiting exoplanet yield of the TESS primary mission, in order to guide follow-up observations and science projects utilizing TESS discoveries. Our new simulations differ from previous work by using (1) an updated photometric noise model that accounts for the nominal pointing jitter estimated through simulation prior to launch, (2) improved stellar parameters based on Gaia mission Data Release 2, (3) improved empirically-based simulation of multi-planet systems, (4) a realistic method of selecting targets for 2-minute exposures, and (5) a more realistic geometric distortion model to determine the sky region that falls on TESS CCDs. We also present simulations of the planet yield for three suggested observing strategies of the TESS extended mission. We report ~$10^4$ planets to be discovered by the TESS primary mission, as well as an additional $sim 2000$ planets for each year of the three extended mission scenarios we explored. We predict that in the primary mission, TESS will discover about 3500 planets with Neptune size and smaller, half of which will orbit stars with TESS magnitudes brighter than 12. Specifically, we proposed a new extended mission scenario that centers Camera 3 on the ecliptic pole (C3PO), which will yield more long period planets as well as moderately irradiated planets that orbit F, G, and K stars.
We present new Spitzer transit observations of four K2 transiting sub-Neptunes: K2-36c, K2-79b, K2-167b, and K2-212b. We derive updated orbital ephemerides and radii for these planets based on a joint analysis of the Spitzer, TESS, and K2 photometry. We use the EVEREST pipeline to provide improved K2 photometry, by detrending instrumental noise and K2s pointing jitter. We used a pixel level decorrelation method on the Spitzer observations to reduce instrumental systematic effects. We modeled the effect of possible blended eclipsing binaries, seeking to validate these planets via the achromaticity of the transits (K2 versus Spitzer). However, we find that Spitzers signal-to-noise ratio for these small planets is insufficient to validate them via achromaticity. Nevertheless, by jointly fitting radii between K2 and Spitzer observations, we were able to independently confirm the K2 radius measurements. Due to the long time baseline between the K2 and Spitzer observations, we were also able to increase the precision of the orbital periods compared to K2 observations alone. The improvement is a factor of 3 for K2-36c, and more than an order of magnitude for the remaining planets. Considering possible JWST observations in 1/2023, previous 1 sigma uncertainties in transit times for these planets range from 74 to 434 minutes, but we have reduced them to the range of 8 to 23 minutes.
Planetary rotation rates and obliquities provide information regarding the history of planet formation, but have not yet been measured for evolved extrasolar planets. Here we investigate the theoretical and observational perspective of the Rossiter-McLauglin effect during secondary eclipse (RMse) ingress and egress for transiting exoplanets. Near secondary eclipse, when the planet passes behind the parent star, the star sequentially obscures light from the approaching and receding parts of the rotating planetary surface. The temporal block of light emerging from the approaching (blue-shifted) or receding (red-shifted) parts of the planet causes a temporal distortion in the planets spectral line profiles resulting in an anomaly in the planets radial velocity curve. We demonstrate that the shape and the ratio of the ingress-to-egress radial velocity amplitudes depends on the planetary rotational rate, axial tilt and impact factor (i.e. sky-projected planet spin-orbital alignment). In addition, line asymmetries originating from different layers in the atmosphere of the planet could provide information regarding zonal atmospheric winds and constraints on the hot spot shape for giant irradiated exoplanets. The effect is expected to be most-pronounced at near-infrared wavelengths, where the planet-to-star contrasts are large. We create synthetic near-infrared, high-dispersion spectroscopic data and demonstrate how the sky-projected spin axis orientation and equatorial velocity of the planet can be estimated. We conclude that the RMse effect could be a powerful method to measure exoplanet spins.
NASAs Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission is expected to discover hundreds of planets via single transits first identified in their light curves. Determining the orbital period of these single transit candidates typically requires a significant amount of follow-up work to observe a second transit or measure a radial velocity orbit. In Yao et al. (2019), we developed simulations that demonstrated the ability to use archival photometric data in combination with TESS to precover the orbital period for these candidates with a precision of several minutes, assuming circular orbits. In this work, we incorporate updated models for TESS single transits, allowing for eccentric orbits, along with an updated methodology to improve the reliability of the results. Additionally, we explore how radial velocity (RV) observations can be used to follow up single transit events, using strategies distinct from those employed when the orbital period is known. We find that the use of an estimated period based on a circular orbit to schedule reconnaissance RV observations can efficiently distinguish eclipsing binaries from planets. For candidates that pass reconnaissance RV observations, we simulate RV monitoring campaigns that enable one to obtain an approximate orbital solution. We find this method can regularly determine the orbital periods for planets more massive than 0.5 M_J with orbital periods as long as 100 days.
The space missions TESS and PLATO plan to double the number of 4000 exoplanets already discovered and will measure the size of thousands of exoplanets around the brightest stars in the sky, allowing ground-based radial velocity spectroscopy follow-up to determine the orbit and mass of the detected planets. The new facility we are developing, MARVEL (Raskin et al. this conference), will enable the ground-based follow-up of large numbers of exoplanet detections, expected from TESS and PLATO, which cannot be carried out only by the current facilities that achieve the necessary radial velocity accuracy of 1 m/s or less. This paper presents the MARVEL observation strategy and performance analysis based on predicted PLATO transit detection yield simulations. The resulting observation scenario baseline will help in the instrument design choices and demonstrate the effectiveness of MARVEL as a TESS and PLATO science enabling facility.
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