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Register a new userSignatures of Solar Cycle 25 in Subsurface Zonal Flows
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The pattern of migrating zonal flow bands associated with the solar cycle, known as the torsional oscillation, has been monitored with continuous global helioseismic observations by the Global Oscillations Network Group, together with those made by the Michelson Doppler Imager onboard the Solar and Heliosepheric Observatory and its successor the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, since 1995, giving us nearly two full solar cycles of observations. We report that the flows now show traces of the mid-latitude acceleration that is expected to become the main equatorward-moving branch of the zonal flow pattern for Cycle 25. Based on the current position of this branch, we speculate that the onset of widespread activity for Cycle 25 is unlikely to be earlier than the middle of 2019.
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The results of determinations of the azimuthal and meridional velocities by time-distance helioseismology from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) from May 2010 to September 2020 at latitudes from -60{deg} to +60{deg} and depths to about 19 Mm below the photosphere are used to analyze spatiotemporal variations of the solar differential rotation and meridional circulation. The pattern of torsional oscillations, or latitudinal belts of alternating `fast and `slow zonal flows migrating from high latitudes towards the equator, is found to extend in the time--latitude diagrams over the whole time interval. The oscillation period is comparable with a doubled solar-activity-cycle and can be described as an extended solar cycle. The zonal-velocity variations are related to the solar-activity level, the local-velocity increases corresponding to the sunspot-number increases and being localized at latitudes where the strongest magnetic fields are recorded. The dramatic growth of the zonal velocities in 2018 appears to be a precursor of the beginning of activity Cycle 25. The strong symmetrization of the zonal-velocity field by 2020 can be considered another precursor. The general pattern of poleward meridional flows is modulated by latitudinal variations that are similar to the extended-solar-cycle behavior of the zonal flows. During the activity maximum, these variations are superposed with a higher harmonic corresponding to meridional flows converging to the spot-formation latitudes. Our results indicate that variations of both the zonal and meridional flows exhibit the extended solar-cycle behavior, which is an intrinsic feature of the solar dynamo.
According to the scheme of action of the solar dynamo, the poloidal magnetic field can be considered a source of production of the toroidal magnetic field by the solar differential rotation. From the polar magnetic field proxies, it is natural to expect that solar Cycle 25 will be weak as recorded in sunspot data. We suggest that there are parameters of the zonal harmonics of the solar surface magnetic field, such as the magnitude of the $ell$=3 harmonic or the effective multipole index, that can be used as a reasonable addition to the polar magnetic field proxies. We discuss also some specific features of solar activity indices in Cycles 23 and 24.
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact. Nevertheless, the well-known difficulty is how to accurately predict, on the basis of various recorded solar activity indices, the complete evolution of future solar cycles, due to highly complex dynamical and stochastic processes involved, mainly related to interaction of different components of internal magnetic fields. There are two main distinct classes of solar cycle prediction methods: the precursor-like ones and the mathematical-numerical ones. The main characteristic of precursor techniques, both purely solar and geomagnetic, is their physical basis. Conversely, the non-precursor methods use different mathematical and/or numerical properties of the known temporal evolution of solar activity indices to extract useful information for predicting future activity. For current solar cycle #24 we obtained fairly good statistical performances from both precursor and purely numerical methods, such as the so-called solar precursor and nonlinear ones. To further check the performances of these prediction techniques, we compared the early predictions for the next solar cycle #25. Preliminary results support some coherence of the prediction methods considered and confirm the current trend of a relatively low solar activity.
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Suns activity dominates Earths space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Suns activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. The dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide predictions, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Cycle 24 to the prediction of Cycle 25, so that we can verify whether the previous success is repeatable. The prediction shows that Cycle 25 would be about 10% stronger than Cycle 24 with an amplitude of 126 (international sunspot number version 2.0). The result suggests that Cycle 25 will not enter the Maunder-like grand solar minimum as suggested by some publications. Solar behavior in about four to five years will give a verdict whether the prediction method captures the key mechanism for solar cycle variability, which is assumed as the polar field around the cycle minimum in the model.
We present the association rates between solar energetic particles (SEPs) and the radio emission signatures in the corona and IP space during the entire solar cycle 23. We selected SEPs associated with X and M-class flares from the visible solar hemisphere. All SEP events are also accompanied by coronal mass ejections. Here, we focus on the correlation between the SEP events and the appearance of radio type II, III and IV bursts on dynamic spectra. For this we used the available radio data from ground-based stations and the Wind/WAVES spacecraft. The associations are presented separately for SEP events accompanying activity in the eastern and western solar hemisphere. We find the highest association rate of SEP events to be with type III bursts, followed by types II and IV. Whereas for types III and IV no longitudinal dependence is noticed, these is a tendency for a higher SEP-association rate with type II bursts in the eastern hemisphere. A comparison with reports from previous studies is briefly discussed.
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