No Arabic abstract
In this paper, we propose a model to analyze sentiment of online stock forum and use the information to predict the stock volatility in the Chinese market. We have labeled the sentiment of the online financial posts and make the dataset public available for research. By generating a sentimental dictionary based on financial terms, we develop a model to compute the sentimental score of each online post related to a particular stock. Such sentimental information is represented by two sentiment indicators, which are fused to market data for stock volatility prediction by using the Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Empirical study shows that, comparing to using RNN only, the model performs significantly better with sentimental indicators.
Static malware analysis is well-suited to endpoint anti-virus systems as it can be conducted quickly by examining the features of an executable piece of code and matching it to previously observed malicious code. However, static code analysis can be vulnerable to code obfuscation techniques. Behavioural data collected during file execution is more difficult to obfuscate, but takes a relatively long time to capture - typically up to 5 minutes, meaning the malicious payload has likely already been delivered by the time it is detected. In this paper we investigate the possibility of predicting whether or not an executable is malicious based on a short snapshot of behavioural data. We find that an ensemble of recurrent neural networks are able to predict whether an executable is malicious or benign within the first 5 seconds of execution with 94% accuracy. This is the first time general types of malicious file have been predicted to be malicious during execution rather than using a complete activity log file post-execution, and enables cyber security endpoint protection to be advanced to use behavioural data for blocking malicious payloads rather than detecting them post-execution and having to repair the damage.
Link prediction is one of the central problems in graph mining. However, recent studies highlight the importance of higher-order network analysis, where complex structures called motifs are the first-class citizens. We first show that existing link prediction schemes fail to effectively predict motifs. To alleviate this, we establish a general motif prediction problem and we propose several heuristics that assess the chances for a specified motif to appear. To make the scores realistic, our heuristics consider - among others - correlations between links, i.e., the potential impact of some arriving links on the appearance of other links in a given motif. Finally, for highest accuracy, we develop a graph neural network (GNN) architecture for motif prediction. Our architecture offers vertex features and sampling schemes that capture the rich structural properties of motifs. While our heuristics are fast and do not need any training, GNNs ensure highest accuracy of predicting motifs, both for dense (e.g., k-cliques) and for sparse ones (e.g., k-stars). We consistently outperform the best available competitor by more than 10% on average and up to 32% in area under the curve. Importantly, the advantages of our approach over schemes based on uncorrelated link prediction increase with the increasing motif size and complexity. We also successfully apply our architecture for predicting more arbitrary clusters and communities, illustrating its potential for graph mining beyond motif analysis.
Methods for time series prediction and classification of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from gene expression data have been treated separately so far. The recent emergence of attention-based recurrent neural networks (RNN) models boosted the interpretability of RNN parameters, making them appealing for the understanding of gene interactions. In this work, we generated synthetic time series gene expression data from a range of archetypal GRNs and we relied on a dual attention RNN to predict the gene temporal dynamics. We show that the prediction is extremely accurate for GRNs with different architectures. Next, we focused on the attention mechanism of the RNN and, using tools from graph theory, we found that its graph properties allow to hierarchically distinguish different architectures of the GRN. We show that the GRNs respond differently to the addition of noise in the prediction by the RNN and we relate the noise response to the analysis of the attention mechanism. In conclusion, this work provides a a way to understand and exploit the attention mechanism of RNN and it paves the way to RNN-based methods for time series prediction and inference of GRNs from gene expression data.
Understanding and predicting the popularity of online items is an important open problem in social media analysis. Considerable progress has been made recently in data-driven predictions, and in linking popularity to external promotions. However, the existing methods typically focus on a single source of external influence, whereas for many types of online content such as YouTube videos or news articles, attention is driven by multiple heterogeneous sources simultaneously - e.g. microblogs or traditional media coverage. Here, we propose RNN-MAS, a recurrent neural network for modeling asynchronous streams. It is a sequence generator that connects multiple streams of different granularity via joint inference. We show RNN-MAS not only to outperform the current state-of-the-art Youtube popularity prediction system by 17%, but also to capture complex dynamics, such as seasonal trends of unseen influence. We define two new metrics: promotion score quantifies the gain in popularity from one unit of promotion for a Youtube video; the loudness level captures the effects of a particular user tweeting about the video. We use the loudness level to compare the effects of a video being promoted by a single highly-followed user (in the top 1% most followed users) against being promoted by a group of mid-followed users. We find that results depend on the type of content being promoted: superusers are more successful in promoting Howto and Gaming videos, whereas the cohort of regular users are more influential for Activism videos. This work provides more accurate and explainable popularity predictions, as well as computational tools for content producers and marketers to allocate resources for promotion campaigns.
Neural networks have a remarkable capacity for contextual processing--using recent or nearby inputs to modify processing of current input. For example, in natural language, contextual processing is necessary to correctly interpret negation (e.g. phrases such as not bad). However, our ability to understand how networks process context is limited. Here, we propose general methods for reverse engineering recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to identify and elucidate contextual processing. We apply these methods to understand RNNs trained on sentiment classification. This analysis reveals inputs that induce contextual effects, quantifies the strength and timescale of these effects, and identifies sets of these inputs with similar properties. Additionally, we analyze contextual effects related to differential processing of the beginning and end of documents. Using the insights learned from the RNNs we improve baseline Bag-of-Words models with simple extensions that incorporate contextual modification, recovering greater than 90% of the RNNs performance increase over the baseline. This work yields a new understanding of how RNNs process contextual information, and provides tools that should provide similar insight more broadly.