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Register a new userGravitational-wave cosmography with LISA and the Hubble tension
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We propose that stellar-mass binary black holes like GW150914 will become a tool to explore the local Universe within ~100Mpc in the era of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). High calibration accuracy and annual motion of LISA could enable us to localize up to ~60 binaries more accurately than the error volume of ~100Mpc^3 without electromagnetic counterparts under moderately optimistic assumptions. This accuracy will give us a fair chance to determine the host object solely by gravitational waves. By combining the luminosity distance extracted from gravitational waves with the cosmological redshift determined from the host, the local value of the Hubble parameter will be determined up to a few % without relying on the empirically constructed distance ladder. Gravitational-wave cosmography would pave the way for resolution of the disputed Hubble tension, where the local and global measurements disagree in the value of the Hubble parameter at 3.4sigma level, which amounts to ~9%.
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In a recent paper, we argued that systematic uncertainties related to the choice of Cepheid color-luminosity calibration may have a large influence on the tension between the Hubble constant as inferred from distances to Type Ia supernovae and the cosmic microwave background as measured with the Planck satellite. Here, we investigate the impact of other sources of uncertainty in the supernova distance ladder, including Cepheid temperature and metallicity variations, supernova magnitudes and GAIA parallax distances. Excluding Milky Way Cepheids based on parallax calibration uncertainties, for the color excess calibration we obtain $H_0 = 70.8pm 2.1$ km/s/Mpc, in $1.6,sigma$ tension with the Planck value.
Motivated by the large observed diversity in the properties of extra-galactic extinction by dust, we re-analyse the Cepheid calibration used to infer the local value of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from Type Ia supernovae. Unlike the SH0ES team, we do not enforce a universal color-luminosity relation to correct the near-IR Cepheid magnitudes. Instead, we focus on a data driven method, where the measured colors of the Cepheids are used to derive a color-luminosity relation for each galaxy individually. We present two different analyses, one based on Wesenheit magnitudes, a common practice in the field that attempts to combine corrections from both extinction and variations in intrinsic colors, resulting in $H_0=66.9pm 2.5$ km/s/Mpc, in agreement with the Planck value. In the second approach, we calibrate using color excesses with respect to derived average intrinsic colors, yielding $H_0=71.8pm 1.6$ km/s/Mpc, a $2.7,sigma$ tension with the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background. Hence, we argue that systematic uncertainties related to the choice of Cepheid color-luminosity calibration method currently inhibits us from measuring $H_0$ to the precision required to claim a substantial tension with Planck data.
The $Lambda$CDM model provides a good fit to a large span of cosmological data but harbors areas of phenomenology. With the improvement of the number and the accuracy of observations, discrepancies among key cosmological parameters of the model have emerged. The most statistically significant tension is the $4-6sigma$ disagreement between predictions of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by early time probes with $Lambda$CDM model, and a number of late time, model-independent determinations of $H_0$ from local measurements of distances and redshifts. The high precision and consistency of the data at both ends present strong challenges to the possible solution space and demand a hypothesis with enough rigor to explain multiple observations--whether these invoke new physics, unexpected large-scale structures or multiple, unrelated errors. We present a thorough review of the problem, including a discussion of recent Hubble constant estimates and a summary of the proposed theoretical solutions. Some of the models presented are formally successful, improving the fit to the data in light of their additional degrees of freedom, restoring agreement within $1-2sigma$ between {it Planck} 2018, using CMB power spectra data, BAO, Pantheon SN data, and R20, the latest SH0ES Team measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0 = 73.2 pm 1.3{rm,km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}}$ at 68% confidence level). Reduced tension might not simply come from a change in $H_0$ but also from an increase in its uncertainty due to degeneracy with additional physics, pointing to the need for additional probes. While no specific proposal makes a strong case for being highly likely or far better than all others, solutions involving early or dynamical dark energy, neutrino interactions, interacting cosmologies, primordial magnetic fields, and modified gravity provide the best options until a better alternative comes along.[Abridged]
We use supernovae measurements, calibrated by the local determination of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by SH0ES, to interpolate the distance-redshift relation using Gaussian process regression. We then predict, independent of the cosmological model, the distances that are measured with strong lensing time delays. We find excellent agreement between these predictions and the measurements. The agreement holds when we consider only the redshift dependence of the distance-redshift relation, independent of the value of $H_0$. Our results disfavor the possibility that lens mass modeling contributes a 10% bias or uncertainty in the strong lensing analysis, as suggested recently in the literature. In general our analysis strengthens the case that residual systematic errors in both measurements are below the level of the current discrepancy with the CMB determination of $H_0$, and supports the possibility of new physical phenomena on cosmological scales. With additional data our methodology can provide more stringent tests of unaccounted for systematics in the determinations of the distance-redshift relation in the late universe.
We have begun an exciting era for gravitational wave detection, as several world-leading experiments are breaching the threshold of anticipated signal strengths. Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are pan-Galactic gravitational wave detectors that are already cutting into the expected strength of gravitational waves from cosmic strings and binary supermassive black holes in the nHz-$mu$Hz gravitational wave band. These limits are leading to constraints on the evolutionary state of the Universe. Here, we provide a broad review of this field, from how pulsars are used as tools for detection, to astrophysical sources of uncertainty in the signals PTAs aim to see, to the primary current challenge areas for PTA work. This review aims to provide an up-to-date reference point for new parties interested in the field of gravitational wave detection via pulsar timing.
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