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Register a new userThe Hubble Tension Bites the Dust: Sensitivity of the Hubble Constant Determination to Cepheid Color Calibration
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Motivated by the large observed diversity in the properties of extra-galactic extinction by dust, we re-analyse the Cepheid calibration used to infer the local value of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from Type Ia supernovae. Unlike the SH0ES team, we do not enforce a universal color-luminosity relation to correct the near-IR Cepheid magnitudes. Instead, we focus on a data driven method, where the measured colors of the Cepheids are used to derive a color-luminosity relation for each galaxy individually. We present two different analyses, one based on Wesenheit magnitudes, a common practice in the field that attempts to combine corrections from both extinction and variations in intrinsic colors, resulting in $H_0=66.9pm 2.5$ km/s/Mpc, in agreement with the Planck value. In the second approach, we calibrate using color excesses with respect to derived average intrinsic colors, yielding $H_0=71.8pm 1.6$ km/s/Mpc, a $2.7,sigma$ tension with the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background. Hence, we argue that systematic uncertainties related to the choice of Cepheid color-luminosity calibration method currently inhibits us from measuring $H_0$ to the precision required to claim a substantial tension with Planck data.
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The $Lambda$CDM model provides a good fit to a large span of cosmological data but harbors areas of phenomenology. With the improvement of the number and the accuracy of observations, discrepancies among key cosmological parameters of the model have emerged. The most statistically significant tension is the $4-6sigma$ disagreement between predictions of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by early time probes with $Lambda$CDM model, and a number of late time, model-independent determinations of $H_0$ from local measurements of distances and redshifts. The high precision and consistency of the data at both ends present strong challenges to the possible solution space and demand a hypothesis with enough rigor to explain multiple observations--whether these invoke new physics, unexpected large-scale structures or multiple, unrelated errors. We present a thorough review of the problem, including a discussion of recent Hubble constant estimates and a summary of the proposed theoretical solutions. Some of the models presented are formally successful, improving the fit to the data in light of their additional degrees of freedom, restoring agreement within $1-2sigma$ between {it Planck} 2018, using CMB power spectra data, BAO, Pantheon SN data, and R20, the latest SH0ES Team measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0 = 73.2 pm 1.3{rm,km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}}$ at 68% confidence level). Reduced tension might not simply come from a change in $H_0$ but also from an increase in its uncertainty due to degeneracy with additional physics, pointing to the need for additional probes. While no specific proposal makes a strong case for being highly likely or far better than all others, solutions involving early or dynamical dark energy, neutrino interactions, interacting cosmologies, primordial magnetic fields, and modified gravity provide the best options until a better alternative comes along.[Abridged]
We propose that stellar-mass binary black holes like GW150914 will become a tool to explore the local Universe within ~100Mpc in the era of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). High calibration accuracy and annual motion of LISA could enable us to localize up to ~60 binaries more accurately than the error volume of ~100Mpc^3 without electromagnetic counterparts under moderately optimistic assumptions. This accuracy will give us a fair chance to determine the host object solely by gravitational waves. By combining the luminosity distance extracted from gravitational waves with the cosmological redshift determined from the host, the local value of the Hubble parameter will be determined up to a few % without relying on the empirically constructed distance ladder. Gravitational-wave cosmography would pave the way for resolution of the disputed Hubble tension, where the local and global measurements disagree in the value of the Hubble parameter at 3.4sigma level, which amounts to ~9%.
In a recent paper, we argued that systematic uncertainties related to the choice of Cepheid color-luminosity calibration may have a large influence on the tension between the Hubble constant as inferred from distances to Type Ia supernovae and the cosmic microwave background as measured with the Planck satellite. Here, we investigate the impact of other sources of uncertainty in the supernova distance ladder, including Cepheid temperature and metallicity variations, supernova magnitudes and GAIA parallax distances. Excluding Milky Way Cepheids based on parallax calibration uncertainties, for the color excess calibration we obtain $H_0 = 70.8pm 2.1$ km/s/Mpc, in $1.6,sigma$ tension with the Planck value.
The accuracy of the Hubble constant measured with extragalactic Cepheids depends on robust photometry and background estimation in the presence of stellar crowding. The conventional approach accounts for crowding by sampling backgrounds near Cepheids and assuming they match those at their positions. We show a direct consequence of crowding by unresolved sources at Cepheid sites is a reduction in the fractional amplitudes of their light curves. We use a simple analytical expression to infer crowding directly from the light curve amplitudes of >200 Cepheids in 3 SNe~Ia hosts and NGC 4258 as observed by HST -- the first near-infrared amplitudes measured beyond the Magellanic Clouds. Where local crowding is minimal, we find near-infrared amplitudes match Milky Way Cepheids at the same periods. At greater stellar densities we find that the empirically measured amplitudes match the values predicted (with no free parameters) from crowding assessed in the conventional way from local regions, confirming their accuracy for estimating the background at the Cepheid locations. Extragalactic Cepheid amplitudes would need to be ~20% smaller than measured to indicate additional, unrecognized crowding as a primary source of the present discrepancy in H_0. Rather we find the amplitude data constrains a systematic mis-estimate of Cepheid backgrounds to be 0.029 +/- 0.037 mag, more than 5x smaller than the size of the present ~0.2 mag tension in H_0. We conclude that systematic errors in Cepheid backgrounds do not provide a plausible resolution to the Hubble tension.
The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4sigma$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.
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