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Register a new userPredicting human mobility through the assimilation of social media traces into mobility models
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Predicting human mobility flows at different spatial scales is challenged by the heterogeneity of individual trajectories and the multi-scale nature of transportation networks. As vast amounts of digital traces of human behaviour become available, an opportunity arises to improve mobility models by integrating into them proxy data on mobility collected by a variety of digital platforms and location-aware services. Here we propose a hybrid model of human mobility that integrates a large-scale publicly available dataset from a popular photo-sharing system with the classical gravity model, under a stacked regression procedure. We validate the performance and generalizability of our approach using two ground-truth datasets on air travel and daily commuting in the United States: using two different cross-validation schemes we show that the hybrid model affords enhanced mobility prediction at both spatial scales.
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Understanding how people move in the urban area is important for solving urbanization issues, such as traffic management, urban planning, epidemic control, and communication network improvement. Leveraging recent availability of large amounts of diverse crowdsensed data, many studies have made contributions to this field in various aspects. They need proper review and summary. In this paper, therefore, we first review these recent studies with a proper taxonomy with corresponding examples. Then, based on the experience learnt from the studies, we provide a comprehensive tutorial for future research, which introduces and discusses popular crowdsensed data types, different human mobility subjects, and common data preprocessing and analysis methods. Special emphasis is made on the matching between data types and mobility subjects. Finally, we present two research projects as case studies to demonstrate the entire process of understanding urban human mobility through crowdsensed data in city-wide scale and building-wide scale respectively. Beyond demonstration purpose, the two case studies also make contributions to their category of certain crowdsensed data type and mobility subject.
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In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different geographic scales, we investigate the relationship between human mobility, which subsumes many facets of the populations response to the changing situation, and the spread of COVID-19. Leveraging mobile phone data from February through September 2020, we find a striking relationship between the decrease in mobility flows and the net reproduction number. We find that the time needed to switch off mobility and bring the net reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1 is about one week. Moreover, we observe a strong relationship between the number of days spent above such threshold before the lockdown-induced drop in mobility flows and the total number of infections per 100k inhabitants. Estimating the statistical effect of mobility flows on the net reproduction number over time, we document a 2-week lag positive association, strong in March and April, and weaker but still significant in June. Our study demonstrates the value of big mobility data to monitor the epidemic and inform control interventions during its unfolding.
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