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Register a new userDeja Vu All Over Again: The Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal
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In Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging taken on 10 November 2014, four images of supernova (SN) Refsdal (redshift z=1.49) appeared in an Einstein-cross--like configuration (images S1-S4) around an early-type galaxy in the cluster MACS J1149.5+2223 (z=0.54). Almost all lens models of the cluster have predicted that the SN should reappear within a year in a second host-galaxy image created by the clusters potential. In HST observations taken on 11 December 2015, we find a new source at the predicted position of the new image of SN Refsdal approximately 8 from the previous images S1-S4. This marks the first time the appearance of a SN at a particular time and location in the sky was successfully predicted in advance! We use these data and the light curve from the first four observed images of SN Refsdal to place constraints on the relative time delay and magnification of the new image (SX), compared to images S1-S4. This enables us, for the first time, to test blind lens model predictions of both magnifications and time delays for a lensed SN. We find that the timing and brightness of the new image are consistent with the blind predictions of a fraction of the models. The reappearance illustrates the discriminatory power of this blind test and its utility to uncover sources of systematic uncertainty. From planned HST photometry, we expect to reach a precision of 1-2% on the time delay between S1-S4 and SX.
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The massive cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223(z=0.544) displays five very large lensed images of a well resolved spiral galaxy at $z_{rm spect}=1.491$. It is within one of these images that the first example of a multiply-lensed supernova has been detected recently as part of the Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space. The depth of this data also reveals many HII regions within the lensed spiral galaxy which we identify between the five counter-images. Here we expand the capability of our free-form method to incorporate these HII regions locally, with other reliable lensed galaxies added for a global solution. This improved accuracy allows us to estimate when the Refsdal supernova will appear within the other lensed images of the spiral galaxy to an accuracy of $sim$ 7%. We predict this supernova will reappear in one of the counter-images (RA=11:49:36.025, DEC=+22:23:48.11, J2000) and on November 1$^{st}$ 2015 (with an estimated error of $pm$ 25 days) it will be at the same phase as it was when it was originally discovered, offering a unique opportunity to study the early phases of this supernova and to examine the consistency of the mass model and the cosmological model that have an impact on the time delay prediction.
We present the first year of Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the unique supernova (SN) Refsdal, a gravitationally lensed SN at z=1.488$pm$0.001 with multiple images behind the galaxy cluster MACS J1149.6+2223. The first four observed images of SN Refsdal (images S1-S4) exhibited a slow rise (over ~150 days) to reach a broad peak brightness around 20 April, 2015. Using a set of light curve templates constructed from SN 1987A-like peculiar Type II SNe, we measure time delays for the four images relative to S1 of 4$pm$4 (for S2), 2$pm$5 (S3), and 24$pm$7 days (S4). The measured magnification ratios relative to S1 are 1.15$pm$0.05 (S2), 1.01$pm$0.04 (S3), and 0.34$pm$0.02 (S4). None of the template light curves fully captures the photometric behavior of SN Refsdal, so we also derive complementary measurements for these parameters using polynomials to represent the intrinsic light curve shape. These more flexible fits deliver fully consistent time delays of 7$pm$2 (S2), 0.6$pm$3 (S3), and 27$pm$8 days (S4). The lensing magnification ratios are similarly consistent, measured as 1.17$pm$0.02 (S2), 1.00$pm$0.01 (S3), and 0.38$pm$0.02 (S4). We compare these measurements against published predictions from lens models, and find that the majority of model predictions are in very good agreement with our measurements. Finally, we discuss avenues for future improvement of time delay measurements -- both for SN Refsdal and for other strongly lensed SNe yet to come.
The study of the extragalactic background light (EBL) is undergoing a renaissance. New results from very high energy experiments and deep space missions have broken the deadlock between the contradictory measurements in the optical and near-IR arising from direct versus discrete source estimates. We are also seeing advances in our ability to model the EBL from gamma-ray to radio wavelengths with improved dust models and AGN handling. With the advent of deep and wide spectroscopic and photometric redshift surveys, we can now subdivide the EBL into redshift intervals. This allows for the recovery of the Cosmic Spectral Energy Distribution (CSED), or emissivity of a representative portion of the Universe, at any time. With new facilities coming online, and more unified studies underway from gamma-ray to radio wavelengths, it will soon be possible to measure the EBL to within 1 per cent accuracy. At this level correct modelling of reionisation, awareness of missing populations or light, radiation from the intra-cluster and halo gas, and any signal from decaying dark-matter all become important. In due course, the goal is to measure and explain the origin of all photons incident on the Earths surface from the extragalactic domain, and within which is encoded the entire history of energy production in our Universe.
We present MUSE observations in the core of the HFF galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, where the first magnified and spatially-resolved multiple images of SN Refsdal at redshift 1.489 were detected. Thanks to a DDT program with the VLT and the extraordinary efficiency of MUSE, we measure 117 secure redshifts with just 4.8 hours of total integration time on a single target pointing. We spectroscopically confirm 68 galaxy cluster members, with redshift values ranging from 0.5272 to 0.5660, and 18 multiple images belonging to 7 background, lensed sources distributed in redshifts between 1.240 and 3.703. Starting from the combination of our catalog with those obtained from extensive spectroscopic and photometric campaigns using the HST, we select a sample of 300 (164 spectroscopic and 136 photometric) cluster members, within approximately 500 kpc from the BCG, and a set of 88 reliable multiple images associated to 10 different background source galaxies and 18 distinct knots in the spiral galaxy hosting SN Refsdal. We exploit this valuable information to build 6 detailed strong lensing models, the best of which reproduces the observed positions of the multiple images with a rms offset of only 0.26. We use these models to quantify the statistical and systematic errors on the predicted values of magnification and time delay of the next emerging image of SN Refsdal. We find that its peak luminosity should should occur between March and June 2016, and should be approximately 20% fainter than the dimmest (S4) of the previously detected images but above the detection limit of the planned HST/WFC3 follow-up. We present our two-dimensional reconstruction of the cluster mass density distribution and of the SN Refsdal host galaxy surface brightness distribution. We outline the roadmap towards even better strong lensing models with a synergetic MUSE and HST effort.
Supernova Refsdal, multiply imaged by cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a time scale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of SN Refsdal. A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image should be approximately one third as bright as the brightest known image (i.e., H_AB~25.7 mag at peak and H_AB~26.7 mag six months before peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct.
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