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Register a new userRefsdal meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223
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Supernova Refsdal, multiply imaged by cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223, represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a time scale that is short compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the known images, even though these quantities were not used as input. This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight, cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model predictions for the other appearances of SN Refsdal. A future image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image should be approximately one third as bright as the brightest known image (i.e., H_AB~25.7 mag at peak and H_AB~26.7 mag six months before peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find out soon whether our predictions are correct.
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The massive cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223(z=0.544) displays five very large lensed images of a well resolved spiral galaxy at $z_{rm spect}=1.491$. It is within one of these images that the first example of a multiply-lensed supernova has been detected recently as part of the Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space. The depth of this data also reveals many HII regions within the lensed spiral galaxy which we identify between the five counter-images. Here we expand the capability of our free-form method to incorporate these HII regions locally, with other reliable lensed galaxies added for a global solution. This improved accuracy allows us to estimate when the Refsdal supernova will appear within the other lensed images of the spiral galaxy to an accuracy of $sim$ 7%. We predict this supernova will reappear in one of the counter-images (RA=11:49:36.025, DEC=+22:23:48.11, J2000) and on November 1$^{st}$ 2015 (with an estimated error of $pm$ 25 days) it will be at the same phase as it was when it was originally discovered, offering a unique opportunity to study the early phases of this supernova and to examine the consistency of the mass model and the cosmological model that have an impact on the time delay prediction.
With upcoming (continuum) surveys of high-resolution radio telescopes, detection rates of fast radio bursts (FRBs) might approach $10^5$ per sky per day by future extremely large observatories, such as the possible extension of the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) to a phase 2 array. Depending on the redshift distribution of FRBs and using the repeating FRB121102 as a model, we calculate a detection rate of multiply-imaged FRBs with their multiply-imaged hosts caused by the distribution of galaxy-cluster scale gravitational lenses of the order of $10^{-4}$ per square degree per year for a minimum total flux of the host of 10 $mu$Jy at 1.4 GHz for SKA phase 2. Our comparison of estimated detection rates for quasars, supernovae, gamma ray bursts, and FRBs shows that multiple images of FRBs could be more numerous than those of gamma ray bursts and supernovae and as numerous as multiple images of quasars. Time delays between the multiple images of an FRB break degeneracies in model-based and model-independent lens reconstructions as other time-varying sources do, yet without a microlensing bias as FRBs are more point-like and have shorter duration times. We estimate the relative imprecision of FRB time-delay measurements to be $10^{-10}$ for time delays on the order of 100 days for galaxy-cluster scale lenses, yielding more precise (local) lens properties than time delays from the other time-varying sources. Using the lens modelling software Grale, we show the increase in accuracy and precision of the reconstructed scaled surface mass density map of a simulated cluster-scale lens when adding time delays for one set of multiple images to the set of observational constraints.
We report spectroscopic confirmation and high-resolution infrared imaging of a z=2.79 triply-imaged galaxy behind the Bullet Cluster. This source, a Spitzer-selected luminous infrared galaxy (LIRG), is confirmed via polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) features using the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) and resolved with HST WFC3 imaging. In this galaxy, which with a stellar mass of M*=4e9 Msun is one of the two least massive ones studied with IRS at z>2, we also detect H_2 S(4) and H_2 S(5) pure rotational lines (at 3.1 sigma and 2.1 sigma) - the first detection of these molecular hydrogen lines in a high-redshift galaxy. From the molecular hydrogen lines we infer an excitation temperature T=377+68-84 K. The detection of these lines indicates that the warm molecular gas mass is 6(+36-4)% of the stellar mass and implies the likely existence of a substantial reservoir of cold molecular gas in the galaxy. Future spectral observations at longer wavelengths with facilities like the Herschel Space Observatory, the Large Millimeter Telescope, and the Atacama Pathfinder EXperiment (APEX) thus hold the promise of precisely determining the total molecular gas mass. Given the redshift, and using refined astrometric positions from the high resolution imaging, we also update the magnification estimate and derived fundamental physical properties of this system. The previously published values for total infrared luminosity, star formation rate, and dust temperature are confirmed modulo the revised magnification; however we find that PAH emission is roughly a factor of five stronger than would be predicted by the relations between the total infrared and PAH luminosity reported for SMGs and starbursts in Pope et al. (2008).
We report the discovery of a multiply-imaged gravitationally lensed Type Ia supernova, iPTF16geu (SN 2016geu), at redshift $z=0.409$. This phenomenon could be identified because the light from the stellar explosion was magnified more than fifty times by the curvature of space around matter in an intervening galaxy. We used high spatial resolution observations to resolve four images of the lensed supernova, approximately 0.3 from the center of the foreground galaxy. The observations probe a physical scale of $sim$1 kiloparsec, smaller than what is typical in other studies of extragalactic gravitational lensing. The large magnification and symmetric image configuration implies close alignment between the line-of-sight to the supernova and the lens. The relative magnifications of the four images provide evidence for sub-structures in the lensing galaxy.
We present evidence for a Spitzer-selected luminous infrared galaxy (LIRG) behind the Bullet Cluster. The galaxy, originally identified in IRAC photometry as a multiply imaged source, has a spectral energy distribution consistent with a highly extincted (A_V~3.3), strongly star-forming galaxy at z=2.7. Using our strong gravitational lensing model presented in Bradac et al. (2006), we find that the magnifications are 10 to 50 for the three images of the galaxy. The implied infrared luminosity is consistent with the galaxy being a LIRG, with a stellar mass of M_*~2e11 M_Sun and a star formation rate of ~90 M_Sun/yr. With lensed fluxes at 24 microns of 0.58 mJy and 0.39 mJy in the two brightest images, this galaxy presents a unique opportunity for detailed study of an obscured starburst with star fomation rate comparable to that of L* galaxies at z>2.
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