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Register a new userA Space Weather Information Service Based Upon Remote and In-Situ Measurements of Coronal Mass Ejections Heading for Earth
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The Earths magnetosphere is formed as a consequence of interaction between the planets magnetic field and the solar wind, a continuous plasma stream from the Sun. A number of different solar wind phenomena have been studied over the past forty years with the intention of understanding and forecasting solar behavior. One of these phenomena in particular, Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can significantly disturb the Earths magnetosphere for a short time and cause geomagnetic storms. This publication presents a mission concept consisting of six spacecraft that are equally spaced in a heliocentric orbit at 0.72 AU. These spacecraft will monitor the plasma properties, the magnetic fields orientation and magnitude, and the 3D-propagation trajectory of CMEs heading for Earth. The primary objective of this mission is to increase space weather (SW) forecasting time by means of a near real-time information service, that is based upon in-situ and remote measurements of the aforementioned CME properties. The missions secondary objective is to provide vital data to update scientific models. In-situ measurements are performed using a Solar Wind Analyzer instrumentation package and flux gate magnetometers, while coronagraphs execute remote measurements. Communication with the six identical spacecraft is realized via a deep space network consisting of six ground stations. They provide an information service that is in uninterrupted contact with the spacecraft, allowing for continuous SW monitoring. The data will be handled by a dedicated processing center before being forwarded to the SSA Space Weather Coordination Center who will manage the SW forecasting. The data processing center will additionally archive the data for the scientific community. The proposed concept mission allows for major advances in SW forecasting time and the scientific modelling of SW.
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Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on stars other than the Sun have proven very difficult to detect. One promising pathway lies in the detection of type II radio bursts. Their appearance and distinctive properties are associated with the development of an outward propagating CME-driven shock. However, dedicated radio searches have not been able to identify these transient features in other stars. Large Alfven speeds and the magnetic suppression of CMEs in active stars have been proposed to render stellar eruptions radio-quiet. Employing 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we study here the distribution of the coronal Alfven speed, focusing on two cases representative of a young Sun-like star and a mid-activity M-dwarf (Proxima Centauri). These results are compared with a standard solar simulation and used to characterize the shock-prone regions in the stellar corona and wind. Furthermore, using a flux-rope eruption model, we drive realistic CME events within our M-dwarf simulation. We consider eruptions with different energies to probe the regimes of weak and partial CME magnetic confinement. While these CMEs are able to generate shocks in the corona, those are pushed much farther out compared to their solar counterparts. This drastically reduces the resulting type II radio burst frequencies down to the ionospheric cutoff, which impedes their detection with ground-based instrumentation.
Predicting the Bz magnetic field embedded within ICMEs, also known as the Bz problem, is a key challenge in space weather forecasting. We study the hypothesis that upstream in situ measurements of the sheath region and the first few hours of the magnetic obstacle provide sufficient information for predicting the downstream Bz component. To do so, we develop a predictive tool based on machine learning that is trained and tested on 348 ICMEs from Wind, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B measurements. We train the machine learning models to predict the minimum value of the Bz component and the maximum value of the total magnetic field Bz in the magnetic obstacle. To validate the tool, we let the ICMEs sweep over the spacecraft and assess how continually feeding in situ measurements into the tool improves the Bz prediction. Because the application of the tool in operations needs an automated detection of ICMEs, we implement an existing automated ICME detection algorithm and test its robustness for the time intervals under scrutiny. We find that the predictive tool can predict the minimum value of the Bz component in the magnetic obstacle with a mean absolute error of 3.12 nT and a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.71 when the sheath region and the first 4 hours of the magnetic obstacle are observed. While the underlying hypothesis is unlikely to solve the Bz problem, the tool shows promise for ICMEs that have a recognizable magnetic flux rope signature. Transitioning the tool to operations could lead to improved space weather forecasting.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of geomagnetic disturbances, but the effects of their interaction with Earths magnetic field depend on their magnetic configuration and orientation. Fitting and reconstruction techniques have been developed to determine the important geometrical and physical CME properties. In many instances, there is disagreement between such different methods but also between fitting from in situ measurements and reconstruction based on remote imaging. Here, we compare three methods based on different assumptions for measurements of thirteen CMEs by the Wind spacecraft from 1997 to 2015. These CMEs are selected from the interplanetary coronal mass ejections catalog on https://wind.nasa.gov/ICMEindex.php due to their simplicity in terms of 1) small expansion speed throughout the CME and 2) little asymmetry in the magnetic field profile. This makes these thirteen events ideal candidates to compare codes that do not include expansion nor distortion. We find that, for these simple events, the codes are in relatively good agreement in terms of the CME axis orientation for six out of the 13 events. Using the Grad-Shafranov technique, we can determine the shape of the cross-section, which is assumed to be circular for the other two models, a force-free fitting and a circular-cylindrical non-force-free fitting. Five of the events are found to have a clear circular cross-section, even when this is not a pre-condition of the reconstruction. We make an initial attempt at evaluating the adequacy of the different assumptions for these simple CMEs. The conclusion of this work strongly suggests that attempts at reconciling in situ and remote-sensing views of CMEs must take in consideration the compatibility of the different models with specific CME structures to better reproduce flux ropes.
We study interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) measured by probes at different heliocentric distances (0.3-1AU) to investigate the propagation of ICMEs in the inner heliosphere and determine how the generic features of ICMEs change with heliospheric distance. Using data from the MESSENGER, Venus Express and ACE spacecraft, we analyze with the superposed epoch technique the profiles of ICME substructures, namely the sheath and the magnetic ejecta. We determine that the median magnetic field magnitude in the sheath correlates well with ICME speeds at 1 AU and we use this proxy to order the ICMEs at all spacecraft. We then investigate the typical ICME profiles for three categories equivalent to slow, intermediate and fast ICMEs. Contrary to fast ICMEs, slow ICMEs have a weaker solar wind field at the front and a more symmetric magnetic field profile. We find the asymmetry to be less pronounced at Earth than at Mercury, indicating a relaxation taking place as ICMEs propagate. We also find that the magnetic field intensities in the wake region of the ICMEs do not go back to the pre-ICME solar wind intensities, suggesting that the effects of ICMEs on the ambient solar wind last longer than the duration of the transient event. Such results provide an indication of physical processes that need to be reproduced by numerical simulations of ICME propagation. The samples studied here will be greatly improved by future missions dedicated to the exploration of the inner heliosphere, such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.
During European Space Weather Week 15 two plenary sessions were held to review the status of operational space weather forecasting. The first session addressed the topic of working with space weather service providers now and in the future, the user perspective. The second session provided the service perspective, addressing experiences in forecasting development and operations. Presentations in both sessions provided an overview of international efforts on these topics, and panel discussion topics arising in the first session were used as a basis for panel discussion in the second session. Discussion topics included experiences during the September 2017 space weather events, cross domain impacts, timeliness of notifications, and provision of effective user education. Users highlighted that a severe space weather event did not necessarily lead to severe impacts for each individual user across the different sectors. Service providers were generally confident that timely and reliable information could be provided during severe and extreme events, although stressed that more research and funding were required in this relatively new field of operational space weather forecasting, to ensure continuation of capabilities and further development of services, in particular improved forecasting targeting user needs. Here a summary of the sessions is provided followed by a commentary on the current state-of-the-art and potential next steps towards improvement of services.
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