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Register a new userMachine learning for predicting the Bz magnetic field component from upstream in situ observations of solar coronal mass ejections
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Predicting the Bz magnetic field embedded within ICMEs, also known as the Bz problem, is a key challenge in space weather forecasting. We study the hypothesis that upstream in situ measurements of the sheath region and the first few hours of the magnetic obstacle provide sufficient information for predicting the downstream Bz component. To do so, we develop a predictive tool based on machine learning that is trained and tested on 348 ICMEs from Wind, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B measurements. We train the machine learning models to predict the minimum value of the Bz component and the maximum value of the total magnetic field Bz in the magnetic obstacle. To validate the tool, we let the ICMEs sweep over the spacecraft and assess how continually feeding in situ measurements into the tool improves the Bz prediction. Because the application of the tool in operations needs an automated detection of ICMEs, we implement an existing automated ICME detection algorithm and test its robustness for the time intervals under scrutiny. We find that the predictive tool can predict the minimum value of the Bz component in the magnetic obstacle with a mean absolute error of 3.12 nT and a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.71 when the sheath region and the first 4 hours of the magnetic obstacle are observed. While the underlying hypothesis is unlikely to solve the Bz problem, the tool shows promise for ICMEs that have a recognizable magnetic flux rope signature. Transitioning the tool to operations could lead to improved space weather forecasting.
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We examine 188 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) measured by the twin STEREO spacecraft during 2007-2016 to investigate the generic features of the CME sheath and the magnetic ejecta (ME) and dependencies of average physical parameters of the sheath on the ME. We classify the MEs into three categories, focusing on whether a ME drives both a shock and sheath, or only a sheath, or neither, near 1 AU. We also reevaluate our initial classification through an automated algorithm and visual inspection. We observe that even for leading edge speeds greater than 500 km/s, 1 out of 4 MEs do not drive shocks near 1 AU. MEs driving both shocks and sheaths are the fastest and propagate in high magnetosonic solar wind, whereas MEs driving only sheaths are the slowest and propagate in low magnetosonic solar wind. Our statistical and superposed epoch analyses indicate that all physical parameters are more enhanced in the sheath regions following shocks than in sheaths without shocks. However, differences within sheaths become statistically less significant for similar driving MEs. We also find that the radial thickness of ME-driven sheaths apparently has no clear linear correlation with the speed profile and associated Mach numbers of the driver.
We study interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) measured by probes at different heliocentric distances (0.3-1AU) to investigate the propagation of ICMEs in the inner heliosphere and determine how the generic features of ICMEs change with heliospheric distance. Using data from the MESSENGER, Venus Express and ACE spacecraft, we analyze with the superposed epoch technique the profiles of ICME substructures, namely the sheath and the magnetic ejecta. We determine that the median magnetic field magnitude in the sheath correlates well with ICME speeds at 1 AU and we use this proxy to order the ICMEs at all spacecraft. We then investigate the typical ICME profiles for three categories equivalent to slow, intermediate and fast ICMEs. Contrary to fast ICMEs, slow ICMEs have a weaker solar wind field at the front and a more symmetric magnetic field profile. We find the asymmetry to be less pronounced at Earth than at Mercury, indicating a relaxation taking place as ICMEs propagate. We also find that the magnetic field intensities in the wake region of the ICMEs do not go back to the pre-ICME solar wind intensities, suggesting that the effects of ICMEs on the ambient solar wind last longer than the duration of the transient event. Such results provide an indication of physical processes that need to be reproduced by numerical simulations of ICME propagation. The samples studied here will be greatly improved by future missions dedicated to the exploration of the inner heliosphere, such as Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.
The Earths magnetosphere is formed as a consequence of interaction between the planets magnetic field and the solar wind, a continuous plasma stream from the Sun. A number of different solar wind phenomena have been studied over the past forty years with the intention of understanding and forecasting solar behavior. One of these phenomena in particular, Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), can significantly disturb the Earths magnetosphere for a short time and cause geomagnetic storms. This publication presents a mission concept consisting of six spacecraft that are equally spaced in a heliocentric orbit at 0.72 AU. These spacecraft will monitor the plasma properties, the magnetic fields orientation and magnitude, and the 3D-propagation trajectory of CMEs heading for Earth. The primary objective of this mission is to increase space weather (SW) forecasting time by means of a near real-time information service, that is based upon in-situ and remote measurements of the aforementioned CME properties. The missions secondary objective is to provide vital data to update scientific models. In-situ measurements are performed using a Solar Wind Analyzer instrumentation package and flux gate magnetometers, while coronagraphs execute remote measurements. Communication with the six identical spacecraft is realized via a deep space network consisting of six ground stations. They provide an information service that is in uninterrupted contact with the spacecraft, allowing for continuous SW monitoring. The data will be handled by a dedicated processing center before being forwarded to the SSA Space Weather Coordination Center who will manage the SW forecasting. The data processing center will additionally archive the data for the scientific community. The proposed concept mission allows for major advances in SW forecasting time and the scientific modelling of SW.
Aims: We investigate whether solar coronal mass ejections are driven mainly by coupling to the ambient solar wind or through the release of internal magnetic energy. Methods: We examine the energetics of 39 flux-rope like coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun using data in the distance range $sim$ 2--20 $R_{odot}$ from the Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronograph (LASCO) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). This comprises a complete sample of the best examples of flux-rope CMEs observed by LASCO in 1996-2001. Results: We find that 69% of the CMEs in our sample experience a clearly identifiable driving power in the LASCO field of view. For the CMEs that are driven, we examine if they might be deriving most of their driving power by coupling to the solar wind. We do not find conclusive evidence in favor of this hypothesis. On the other hand, we find that their internal magnetic energy is a viable source of the required driving power. We have estimated upper and lower limits on the power that can possibly be provided by the internal magnetic field of a CME. We find that, on average, the lower limit to the available magnetic power is around 74% of what is required to drive the CMEs, while the upper limit can be as much as an order of magnitude larger.
We describe a method to measure the magnetic field orientation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Faraday rotation (FR). Two basic FR profiles, Gaussian-shaped with a single polarity or N-like with polarity reversals, are produced by a radio source occulted by a moving flux rope depending on its orientation. These curves are consistent with the Helios observations, providing evidence for the flux-rope geometry of CMEs. Many background radio sources can map CMEs in FR onto the sky. We demonstrate with a simple flux rope that the magnetic field orientation and helicity of the flux rope can be determined 2-3 days before it reaches Earth, which is of crucial importance for space weather forecasting. An FR calculation based on global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of CMEs in a background heliosphere shows that FR mapping can also resolve a CME geometry curved back to the Sun. We discuss implementation of the method using data from the Mileura Widefield Array (MWA).
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