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We provide a revised assessment of the number of exoplanets that should be discovered by Gaia astrometry, extending previous studies to a broader range of spectral types, distances, and magnitudes. Our assessment is based on a large representative sample of host stars from the TRILEGAL Galaxy population synthesis model, recent estimates of the exoplanet frequency distributions as a function of stellar type, and detailed simulation of the Gaia observations using the updated instrument performance and scanning law. We use two approaches to estimate detectable planetary systems: one based on the S/N of the astrometric signature per field crossing, easily reproducible and allowing comparisons with previous estimates, and a new and more robust metric based on orbit fitting to the simulated satellite data. With some plausible assumptions on planet occurrences, we find that some 21,000 (+/-6000) high-mass (1-15M_J) long-period planets should be discovered out to distances of ~500pc for the nominal 5-yr mission (including at least 1000-1500 around M dwarfs out to 100pc), rising to some 70,000 (+/-20,000) for a 10-yr mission. We indicate some of the expected features of this exoplanet population, amongst them ~25-50 intermediate-period (P~2-3yr) transiting systems.
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[abridged] We carry out numerical simulations to gauge the Gaia potential for precision astrometry of exoplanets orbiting a sample of known dM stars within 30 pc from the Sun. (1) It will be possible to accurately determine orbits and masses for Jupiter-mass planets with orbital periods in the range 0.2<P<6.0 yr and with an astrometric signal-to-noise ratio > 10. Given present-day estimates of the planet fraction f_p around M dwarfs, 100 giant planets could be found by Gaia around the sample. Comprehensive screening by Gaia of the reservoir of 4x10^5 M dwarfs within 100 pc could result in 2600 detections and as many as 500 accurate orbit determinations. The value of f_p could then be determined with an accuracy of 2%, an improvement by over an order of magnitude with respect to the most precise values available to-date; (2) in the same period range, inclination angles corresponding to quasi-edge-on configurations will be determined with enough precision (a few percent) so that it will be possible to identify intermediate-separation planets which are potentially transiting within the errors. Gaia could alert us of the existence of 10 such systems. More than 250 candidates could be identified assuming solutions compatible with transit configurations within 10% accuracy, although a large fraction of these (85%) could be false positives; (3) for well-sampled orbits, the uncertainties on planetary ephemerides, separation and position angle, will degrade at typical rates of < 1 mas/yr and < 2 deg/yr, respectively; (4) planetary phases will be measured with typical uncertainties of several degrees, resulting (under the assumption of purely scattering atmospheres) in phase-averaged errors on the phase function of 0.05, and expected uncertainties in the determination of the emergent flux of intermediate-separation (0.3<a<2.0 AU) giant planets of 20%. [abridged]
We use detailed simulations of the Gaia observations of synthetic planetary systems and develop and utilize independent software codes in double-blind mode to analyze the data, including statistical tools for planet detection and different algorithms for single and multiple Keplerian orbit fitting that use no a priori knowledge of the true orbital parameters of the systems. 1) Planets with astrometric signatures $alphasimeq 3$ times the single-measurement error $sigma_psi$ and period $Pleq 5$ yr can be detected reliably, with a very small number of false positives. 2) At twice the detection limit, uncertainties in orbital parameters and masses are typically $15%-20%$. 3) Over 70% of two-planet systems with well-separated periods in the range $0.2leq Pleq 9$ yr, $2leqalpha/sigma_psileq 50$, and eccentricity $eleq 0.6$ are correctly identified. 4) Favorable orbital configurations have orbital elements measured to better than 10% accuracy $> 90%$ of the time, and the value of the mutual inclination angle determined with uncertainties $leq 10^{degr}$. 5) Finally, uncertainties obtained from the fitting procedures are a good estimate of the actual errors. Extrapolating from the present-day statistical properties of the exoplanet sample, the results imply that a Gaia with $sigma_psi$ = 8 $mu$as, in its unbiased and complete magnitude-limited census of planetary systems, will measure several thousand giant planets out to 3-4 AUs from stars within 200 pc, and will characterize hundreds of multiple-planet systems, including meaningful coplanarity tests. Finally, we put Gaia into context, identifying several areas of planetary-system science in which Gaia can be expected to have a relevant impact, when combined with data coming from other ongoing and future planet search programs.
Astrometry can detect rocky planets in a broad range of masses and orbital distances and measure their masses and three-dimensional orbital parameters, including eccentricity and inclination, to provide the properties of terrestrial planets. The masses of both the new planets and the known gas giants can be measured unambiguously, allowing a direct calculation of the gravitational interactions, both past and future. Such dynamical interactions inform theories of the formation and evolution of planetary systems, including Earth-like planets. Astrometry is the only technique technologically ready to detect planets of Earth mass in the habitable zone (HZ) around solar-type stars within 20 pc. These Earth analogs are close enough for follow-up observations to characterize the planets by infrared imaging and spectroscopy with planned future missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Terrestrial Planet Finder/Darwin. Employing a demonstrated astrometric precision of 1 microarcsecond and a noise floor under 0.1 micro-arcseconds, SIM Lite can make multiple astrometric measurements of the nearest 60 F-, G-, and K-type stars during a five-year mission. SIM Lite directly tests theories of rocky planet formation and evolution around Sun-like stars and identifies the nearest potentially habitable planets for later spaceborne imaging, e.g., with Terrestrial Planet Finder and Darwin. SIM was endorsed by the two recent Decadal Surveys and it meets the highest-priority goal of the 2008 AAAC Exoplanet Task Force.
We are still in the early days of exoplanet discovery. Astronomers are beginning to model the atmospheres and interiors of exoplanets and have developed a deeper understanding of processes of planet formation and evolution. However, we have yet to map out the full complexity of multi-planet architectures or to detect Earth analogues around nearby stars. Reaching these ambitious goals will require further improvements in instrumentation and new analysis tools. In this chapter, we provide an overview of five observational techniques that are currently employed in the detection of exoplanets: optical and IR Doppler measurements, transit photometry, direct imaging, microlensing, and astrometry. We provide a basic description of how each of these techniques works and discuss forefront developments that will result in new discoveries. We also highlight the observational limitations and synergies of each method and their connections to future space missions.
In contrast to photometric transits, whose peak signal occurs at mid-transit due to occultation of the brightest region of the disk, polarimetric transits provide a signal upon ingress and egress due to occultation of the polarized stellar limb. Limb polarization, the bright corollary to limb darkening, arises from the $90^circ$ scattering angle and low optical depth experienced by photons at the limb. In addition to the ratio $R_{rm p} / R_*$, the amplitude of a polarimetric transit is expected to be controlled by the strength and width of the stellar limb polarization profile, which depend on the scattering-to-total opacity ratio at the stellar limb. We present a short list of the systems providing the highest expected signal-to-noise ratio for detection of this effect, and we draw particular attention to HD 80606b. This planet is spin/orbit misaligned, has a three-hour ingress, and has a bright parent star, which make it an attractive target. We report on test observations of an HD 80606b ingress with the POLISH2 polarimeter at the Lick Observatory Shane 3-m telescope. We conclude that unmodeled telescope systematic effects prevented polarimetric detection of this event. We outline a roadmap for further refinements of exoplanet polarimetry, whose eventual success will require a further factor of ten reduction in systematic noise.
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