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Register a new userDouble-blind test program for astrometric planet detection with Gaia
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Alessandro Sozzetti
Publication date
2008
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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We use detailed simulations of the Gaia observations of synthetic planetary systems and develop and utilize independent software codes in double-blind mode to analyze the data, including statistical tools for planet detection and different algorithms for single and multiple Keplerian orbit fitting that use no a priori knowledge of the true orbital parameters of the systems. 1) Planets with astrometric signatures $alphasimeq 3$ times the single-measurement error $sigma_psi$ and period $Pleq 5$ yr can be detected reliably, with a very small number of false positives. 2) At twice the detection limit, uncertainties in orbital parameters and masses are typically $15%-20%$. 3) Over 70% of two-planet systems with well-separated periods in the range $0.2leq Pleq 9$ yr, $2leqalpha/sigma_psileq 50$, and eccentricity $eleq 0.6$ are correctly identified. 4) Favorable orbital configurations have orbital elements measured to better than 10% accuracy $> 90%$ of the time, and the value of the mutual inclination angle determined with uncertainties $leq 10^{degr}$. 5) Finally, uncertainties obtained from the fitting procedures are a good estimate of the actual errors. Extrapolating from the present-day statistical properties of the exoplanet sample, the results imply that a Gaia with $sigma_psi$ = 8 $mu$as, in its unbiased and complete magnitude-limited census of planetary systems, will measure several thousand giant planets out to 3-4 AUs from stars within 200 pc, and will characterize hundreds of multiple-planet systems, including meaningful coplanarity tests. Finally, we put Gaia into context, identifying several areas of planetary-system science in which Gaia can be expected to have a relevant impact, when combined with data coming from other ongoing and future planet search programs.
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We provide a revised assessment of the number of exoplanets that should be discovered by Gaia astrometry, extending previous studies to a broader range of spectral types, distances, and magnitudes. Our assessment is based on a large representative sample of host stars from the TRILEGAL Galaxy population synthesis model, recent estimates of the exoplanet frequency distributions as a function of stellar type, and detailed simulation of the Gaia observations using the updated instrument performance and scanning law. We use two approaches to estimate detectable planetary systems: one based on the S/N of the astrometric signature per field crossing, easily reproducible and allowing comparisons with previous estimates, and a new and more robust metric based on orbit fitting to the simulated satellite data. With some plausible assumptions on planet occurrences, we find that some 21,000 (+/-6000) high-mass (1-15M_J) long-period planets should be discovered out to distances of ~500pc for the nominal 5-yr mission (including at least 1000-1500 around M dwarfs out to 100pc), rising to some 70,000 (+/-20,000) for a 10-yr mission. We indicate some of the expected features of this exoplanet population, amongst them ~25-50 intermediate-period (P~2-3yr) transiting systems.
A tool for representation of the one-dimensional astrometric signal of Gaia is described and investigated in terms of fit discrepancy and astrometric performance with respect to number of parameters required. The proposed basis function is based on the aberration free response of the ideal telescope and its derivatives, weighted by the source spectral distribution. The influence of relative position of the detector pixel array with respect to the optical image is analysed, as well as the variation induced by the source spectral emission. The number of parameters required for micro-arcsec level consistency of the reconstructed function with the detected signal is found to be 11. Some considerations are devoted to the issue of calibration of the instrument response representation, taking into account the relevant aspects of source spectrum and focal plane sampling. Additional investigations and other applications are also suggested.
The astrometric sample of Gaia allows us to study the outermost Galactic disc, the halo and their interface. It is precisely at the very edge of the disc where the effects of external perturbations are expected to be the most noticeable. Our goal is to detect the kinematic substructure present in the halo and at the edge of the Milky Way (MW) disc, and provide observational constraints on their phase-space distribution. We download, one HEALpix at a time, the proper motion histogram of distant stars, to which we apply a Wavelet Transformation to reveal the significant overdensities. We then analyse the large coherent structures that appear in the sky. We reveal a sharp yet complex anticentre dominated by Monoceros (MNC) and the Anticentre Stream (ACS) in the north, which we find with an intensity comparable to the Magellanic clouds and the Sagittarius stream, and by MNC south and TriAnd at negative latitudes. Our method allows us to perform a morphological analysis of MNC and ACS, both spanning more than 100$^circ$ in longitude, and to provide a high purity sample of giants with which we track MNC down to latitudes as low as $sim$5$^circ$. Their colour-magnitude diagram is consistent with extended structures at a distance of $sim$10-11 kpc originated in the disc, with a very low ratio of RR Lyrae over M giants, and kinematics compatible with the rotation curve at those distances or only slightly slower. We present a precise characterisation of MNC and ACS, two previously known structures that our method reveals naturally, allowing us to detect them without limiting ourselves to a particular stellar type and, for the first time, using only kinematics. Our results allow future studies to model their chemo-dynamics and evolution, thus constraining some of the most influential processes that shaped the MW.
We employ differential astrometric methods to establish a small field reference frame stable at the micro-arcsecond ($mu$as) level on short timescales using high-cadence simulated observations taken by Gaia in February 2017 of a bright star close to the limb of Jupiter, as part of the relativistic experiment on Jupiters quadrupole. We achieve sub$mu$as-level precision along scan through a suitable transformation of the field angles into a small-field tangent plane and a least-squares fit over several overlapping frames for estimating the plate and geometric calibration parameters with tens of reference stars that lie within $sim$0.5 degs from the target star, assuming perfect knowledge of stellar proper motions and parallaxes. Furthermore, we study the effects of unmodeled astrometric parameters on the residuals and find that proper motions have a stronger effect than unmodeled parallaxes. For e.g., unmodeled Gaia DR2 proper motions introduce extra residuals of $sim$23$mu$as (AL) and 69$mu$as (AC) versus the $sim$5$mu$as (AL) and 17$mu$as (AC) due to unmodeled parallaxes. On the other hand, assuming catalog errors in the proper motions such as those from Gaia DR2 has a minimal impact on the stability introducing sub$mu$as and $mu$as level residuals in the along and across scanning direction, respectively. Finally, the effect of a coarse knowledge in the satellite velocity components (with time dependent errors of 10$mu$as) is capable of enlarging the size of the residuals to roughly 0.2 mas.
[abridged] We carry out numerical simulations to gauge the Gaia potential for precision astrometry of exoplanets orbiting a sample of known dM stars within 30 pc from the Sun. (1) It will be possible to accurately determine orbits and masses for Jupiter-mass planets with orbital periods in the range 0.2<P<6.0 yr and with an astrometric signal-to-noise ratio > 10. Given present-day estimates of the planet fraction f_p around M dwarfs, 100 giant planets could be found by Gaia around the sample. Comprehensive screening by Gaia of the reservoir of 4x10^5 M dwarfs within 100 pc could result in 2600 detections and as many as 500 accurate orbit determinations. The value of f_p could then be determined with an accuracy of 2%, an improvement by over an order of magnitude with respect to the most precise values available to-date; (2) in the same period range, inclination angles corresponding to quasi-edge-on configurations will be determined with enough precision (a few percent) so that it will be possible to identify intermediate-separation planets which are potentially transiting within the errors. Gaia could alert us of the existence of 10 such systems. More than 250 candidates could be identified assuming solutions compatible with transit configurations within 10% accuracy, although a large fraction of these (85%) could be false positives; (3) for well-sampled orbits, the uncertainties on planetary ephemerides, separation and position angle, will degrade at typical rates of < 1 mas/yr and < 2 deg/yr, respectively; (4) planetary phases will be measured with typical uncertainties of several degrees, resulting (under the assumption of purely scattering atmospheres) in phase-averaged errors on the phase function of 0.05, and expected uncertainties in the determination of the emergent flux of intermediate-separation (0.3<a<2.0 AU) giant planets of 20%. [abridged]
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