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Register a new userAstrometric Detection of Earthlike Planets
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Michael Shao
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Astrometry can detect rocky planets in a broad range of masses and orbital distances and measure their masses and three-dimensional orbital parameters, including eccentricity and inclination, to provide the properties of terrestrial planets. The masses of both the new planets and the known gas giants can be measured unambiguously, allowing a direct calculation of the gravitational interactions, both past and future. Such dynamical interactions inform theories of the formation and evolution of planetary systems, including Earth-like planets. Astrometry is the only technique technologically ready to detect planets of Earth mass in the habitable zone (HZ) around solar-type stars within 20 pc. These Earth analogs are close enough for follow-up observations to characterize the planets by infrared imaging and spectroscopy with planned future missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Terrestrial Planet Finder/Darwin. Employing a demonstrated astrometric precision of 1 microarcsecond and a noise floor under 0.1 micro-arcseconds, SIM Lite can make multiple astrometric measurements of the nearest 60 F-, G-, and K-type stars during a five-year mission. SIM Lite directly tests theories of rocky planet formation and evolution around Sun-like stars and identifies the nearest potentially habitable planets for later spaceborne imaging, e.g., with Terrestrial Planet Finder and Darwin. SIM was endorsed by the two recent Decadal Surveys and it meets the highest-priority goal of the 2008 AAAC Exoplanet Task Force.
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[abridged] We carry out numerical simulations to gauge the Gaia potential for precision astrometry of exoplanets orbiting a sample of known dM stars within 30 pc from the Sun. (1) It will be possible to accurately determine orbits and masses for Jupiter-mass planets with orbital periods in the range 0.2<P<6.0 yr and with an astrometric signal-to-noise ratio > 10. Given present-day estimates of the planet fraction f_p around M dwarfs, 100 giant planets could be found by Gaia around the sample. Comprehensive screening by Gaia of the reservoir of 4x10^5 M dwarfs within 100 pc could result in 2600 detections and as many as 500 accurate orbit determinations. The value of f_p could then be determined with an accuracy of 2%, an improvement by over an order of magnitude with respect to the most precise values available to-date; (2) in the same period range, inclination angles corresponding to quasi-edge-on configurations will be determined with enough precision (a few percent) so that it will be possible to identify intermediate-separation planets which are potentially transiting within the errors. Gaia could alert us of the existence of 10 such systems. More than 250 candidates could be identified assuming solutions compatible with transit configurations within 10% accuracy, although a large fraction of these (85%) could be false positives; (3) for well-sampled orbits, the uncertainties on planetary ephemerides, separation and position angle, will degrade at typical rates of < 1 mas/yr and < 2 deg/yr, respectively; (4) planetary phases will be measured with typical uncertainties of several degrees, resulting (under the assumption of purely scattering atmospheres) in phase-averaged errors on the phase function of 0.05, and expected uncertainties in the determination of the emergent flux of intermediate-separation (0.3<a<2.0 AU) giant planets of 20%. [abridged]
The habitable zone (HZ) around a star is typically defined as the region where a rocky planet can maintain liquid water on its surface. That definition is appropriate, because this allows for the possibility that carbon-based, photosynthetic life exists on the planet in sufficient abundance to modify the planets atmosphere in a way that might be remotely detected. Exactly what conditions are needed, however, to maintain liquid water remains a topic for debate. Historically, modelers have restricted themselves to water-rich planets with CO2 and H2O as the only important greenhouse gases. More recently, some researchers have suggested broadening the definition to include arid, Dune planets on the inner edge and planets with captured H2 atmospheres on the outer edge, thereby greatly increasing the HZ width. Such planets could exist, but we demonstrate that an inner edge limit of 0.59 AU or less is physically unrealistic. We further argue that conservative HZ definitions should be used for designing future space-based telescopes, but that optimistic definitions may be useful in interpreting the data from such missions. In terms of effective solar flux, Seff, the recently recalculated HZ boundaries are: recent Venus-1.78, runaway greenhouse-1.04, moist greenhouse-1.01, maximum greenhouse-0.35, early Mars-0.32. Based on a combination of different HZ definitions, the frequency of potentially Earth-like planets around late-K and M stars observed by Kepler is in the range of 0.4-0.5.
We provide a revised assessment of the number of exoplanets that should be discovered by Gaia astrometry, extending previous studies to a broader range of spectral types, distances, and magnitudes. Our assessment is based on a large representative sample of host stars from the TRILEGAL Galaxy population synthesis model, recent estimates of the exoplanet frequency distributions as a function of stellar type, and detailed simulation of the Gaia observations using the updated instrument performance and scanning law. We use two approaches to estimate detectable planetary systems: one based on the S/N of the astrometric signature per field crossing, easily reproducible and allowing comparisons with previous estimates, and a new and more robust metric based on orbit fitting to the simulated satellite data. With some plausible assumptions on planet occurrences, we find that some 21,000 (+/-6000) high-mass (1-15M_J) long-period planets should be discovered out to distances of ~500pc for the nominal 5-yr mission (including at least 1000-1500 around M dwarfs out to 100pc), rising to some 70,000 (+/-20,000) for a 10-yr mission. We indicate some of the expected features of this exoplanet population, amongst them ~25-50 intermediate-period (P~2-3yr) transiting systems.
(abridged) A complete census of planetary systems around a volume-limited sample of solar-type stars (FGK dwarfs) in the Solar neighborhood with uniform sensitivity down to Earth-mass planets within their Habitable Zones out to several AUs would be a major milestone in extrasolar planets astrophysics. This fundamental goal can be achieved with a mission concept such as NEAT - the Nearby Earth Astrometric Telescope. NEAT is designed to carry out space-borne extremely-high-precision astrometric measurements sufficient to detect dynamical effects due to orbiting planets of mass even lower than Earths around the nearest stars. Such a survey mission would provide the actual planetary masses and the full orbital geometry for all the components of the detected planetary systems down to the Earth-mass limit. The NEAT performance limits can be achieved by carrying out differential astrometry between the targets and a set of suitable reference stars in the field. The NEAT instrument design consists of an off-axis parabola single-mirror telescope, a detector with a large field of view made of small movable CCDs located around a fixed central CCD, and an interferometric calibration system originating from metrology fibers located at the primary mirror. The proposed mission architecture relies on the use of two satellites operating at L2 for 5 years, flying in formation and offering a capability of more than 20,000 reconfigurations (alternative option uses deployable boom). The NEAT primary science program will encompass an astrometric survey of our 200 closest F-, G- and K-type stellar neighbors, with an average of 50 visits. The remaining time might be allocated to improve the characterization of the architecture of selected planetary systems around nearby targets of specific interest (low-mass stars, young stars, etc.) discovered by Gaia, ground-based high-precision radial-velocity surveys.
We present a comprehensive analysis of 10 years of HARPS radial velocities of the K2V dwarf star HD 13808, which has previously been reported to host two unconfirmed planet candidates. We use the state-of-the-art nested sampling algorithm PolyChord to compare a wide variety of stellar activity models, including simple models exploiting linear correlations between RVs and stellar activity indicators, harmonic models for the activity signals, and a more sophisticated Gaussian process regression model. We show that the use of overly-simplistic stellar activity models that are not well-motivated physically can lead to spurious `detections of planetary signals that are almost certainly not real. We also reveal some difficulties inherent in parameter and model inference in cases where multiple planetary signals may be present. Our study thus underlines the importance both of exploring a variety of competing models and of understanding the limitations and precision settings of ones sampling algorithm. We also show that at least in the case of HD 13808, we always arrive at consistent conclusions about two particular signals present in the RV, regardless of the stellar activity model we adopt; these two signals correspond to the previously-reported though unconfirmed planet candidate signals. Given the robustness and precision with which we can characterize these two signals, we deem them secure planet detections. In particular, we find two planets orbiting HD 13808 at distances of 0.11, 0.26 AU with periods of 14.2, 53.8 d, and minimum masses of 11, 10 Earth masses.
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