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Register a new userAssessment of the MERS-CoV epidemic situation in the Middle East region
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Chiara Poletto Miss
Publication date
2013
fields
Biology
and research's language is
English
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The appearance of a novel coronavirus named Middle East (ME) Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has raised global public health concerns regarding the current situation and its future evolution. Here we propose an integrative maximum likelihood analysis of both cluster data in the ME region and importations in Europe to assess transmission scenario and incidence of sporadic infections. Our approach is based on a spatial-transmission model integrating mobility data worldwide and allows for variations in the zoonotic/environmental transmission and underascertainment. Maximum likelihood estimates for the ME region indicate the occurrence of a subcritical epidemic (R=0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.30-0.77) associated with a 0.28 (95% CI 0.12-0.85) daily rate of sporadic introductions. Infections in the region appear to be mainly dominated by zoonotic/environmental transmissions, with possible underascertainment (95% CI of estimated to observed sporadic cases in the range 1.03-7.32). No time evolution of the situation emerges. Analyses of flight passenger data from the region indicate areas at high risk of importation. While dismissing an immediate threat for global health security, this analysis provides a baseline scenario for future reference and updates, suggests reinforced surveillance to limit underascertainment, and calls for increased alertness in high-risk areas worldwide.
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Understanding the patterns and processes of diversification of life in the planet is a key challenge of science. The Tree of Life represents such diversification processes through the evolutionary relationships among the different taxa, and can be extended down to intra-specific relationships. Here we examine the topological properties of a large set of interspecific and intraspecific phylogenies and show that the branching patterns follow allometric rules conserved across the different levels in the Tree of Life, all significantly departing from those expected from the standard null models. The finding of non-random universal patterns of phylogenetic differentiation suggests that similar evolutionary forces drive diversification across the broad range of scales, from macro-evolutionary to micro-evolutionary processes, shaping the diversity of life on the planet.
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