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Global Modeling and Prediction of Computer Network Traffic

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 Added by Stilian Stoev
 Publication date 2010
and research's language is English




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We develop a probabilistic framework for global modeling of the traffic over a computer network. This model integrates existing single-link (-flow) traffic models with the routing over the network to capture the global traffic behavior. It arises from a limit approximation of the traffic fluctuations as the time--scale and the number of users sharing the network grow. The resulting probability model is comprised of a Gaussian and/or a stable, infinite variance components. They can be succinctly described and handled by certain space-time random fields. The model is validated against simulated and real data. It is then applied to predict traffic fluctuations over unobserved links from a limited set of observed links. Further, applications to anomaly detection and network management are briefly discussed.



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In order to maintain consistent quality of service, computer network engineers face the task of monitoring the traffic fluctuations on the individual links making up the network. However, due to resource constraints and limited access, it is not possible to directly measure all the links. Starting with a physically interpretable probabilistic model of network-wide traffic, we demonstrate how an expensively obtained set of measurements may be used to develop a network-specific model of the traffic across the network. This model may then be used in conjunction with easily obtainable measurements to provide more accurate prediction than is possible with only the inexpensive measurements. We show that the model, once learned may be used for the same network for many different periods of traffic. Finally, we show an application of the prediction technique to create relevant control charts for detection and isolation of shifts in network traffic.
Thanks to recent advancements in the technology, eXtended Reality (XR) applications are gaining a lot of momentum, and they will surely become increasingly popular in the next decade. These new applications, however, require a step forward also in terms of models to simulate and analyze this type of traffic sources in modern communication networks, in order to guarantee to the users state of the art performance and Quality of Experience (QoE). Recognizing this need, in this work, we present a novel open-source traffic model, which researchers can use as a starting point both for improvements of the model itself and for the design of optimized algorithms for the transmission of these peculiar data flows. Along with the mathematical model and the code, we also share with the community the traces that we gathered for our study, collected from freely available applications such as Minecraft VR, Google Earth VR, and Virus Popper. Finally, we propose a roadmap for the construction of an end-to-end framework that fills this gap in the current state of the art.
Accurate network traffic prediction of base station cell is very vital for the expansion and reduction of wireless devices in base station cell. The burst and uncertainty of base station cell network traffic makes the network traffic nonlinear and non-stationary, which brings challenges to the long-term prediction of network traffic. In this paper, the traffic model LMA-DeepAR for base station network is established based on DeepAR. Acordding to the distribution characteristics of network traffic, this paper proposes an artificial feature sequence calculation method based on local moving average (LMA). The feature sequence is input into DeepAR as covariant, which makes the statistical characteristics of network traffic near a period of time in the past be considered when updating parameters, and the interference of non-stationary network traffic on model training will be reduced. Experimental results show that the proposed prediction approach (LMA-DeepAR) outperforms other methods in the overall long-term prediction performance and stability of multi cell network traffic.
Link dimensioning is used by ISPs to properly provision the capacity of their network links. Operators have to make provisions for sudden traffic bursts and network failures to assure uninterrupted operations. In practice, traffic averages are used to roughly estimate required capacity. More accurate solutions often require traffic statistics easily obtained from packet captures, e.g. variance. Our investigations on real Internet traffic have emphasized that the traffic shows high variations at small aggregation times, which indicates that the traffic is self-similar and has a heavy-tailed characteristics. Self-similarity and heavy-tailedness are of great importance for network capacity planning purposes. Traffic modeling process should consider all Internet traffic characteristics. Thereby, the quality of service (QoS) of the network would not affected by any mismatching between the real traffic properties and the reference statistical model. This paper proposes a new class of traffic profiles that is better suited for metering bursty Internet traffic streams. We employ bandwidth provisioning to determine the lowest required bandwidth capacity level for a network link, such that for a given traffic load, a desired performance target is met. We validate our approach using packet captures from real IP-based networks. The proposed link dimensioning approach starts by measuring the statistical parameters of the available traces, and then the degree of fluctuations in the traffic has been measured. This is followed by choosing a proper model to fit the traffic such as lognormal and generalized extreme value distributions. Finally, the optimal capacity for the link can be estimated by deploying the bandwidth provisioning approach. It has been shown that the heavy tailed distributions give more precise values for the link capacity than the Gaussian model.
137 - Reginald D. Smith 2009
This paper has been withdrawn due to errors in the analysis of data with Carrier Access Rate control and statistical methodologies.
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