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Register a new userMultistage Hypothesis Tests for the Mean of a Normal Distribution
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Xinjia Chen
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In this paper, we have developed new multistage tests which guarantee prescribed level of power and are more efficient than previous tests in terms of average sampling number and the number of sampling operations. Without truncation, the maximum sampling numbers of our testing plans are absolutely bounded. Based on geometrical arguments, we have derived extremely tight bounds for the operating characteristic function. To reduce the computational complexity for the relevant integrals, we propose adaptive scanning algorithms which are not only useful for present hypothesis testing problem but also for other problem areas.
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In this paper, we have established a general framework of multistage hypothesis tests which applies to arbitrarily many mutually exclusive and exhaustive composite hypotheses. Within the new framework, we have constructed specific multistage tests which rigorously control the risk of committing decision errors and are more efficient than previous tests in terms of average sample number and the number of sampling operations. Without truncation, the sample numbers of our testing plans are absolutely bounded.
The G-normal distribution was introduced by Peng [2007] as the limiting distribution in the central limit theorem for sublinear expectation spaces. Equivalently, it can be interpreted as the solution to a stochastic control problem where we have a sequence of random variables, whose variances can be chosen based on all past information. In this note we study the tail behavior of the G-normal distribution through analyzing a nonlinear heat equation. Asymptotic results are provided so that the tail probabilities can be easily evaluated with high accuracy. This study also has a significant impact on the hypothesis testing theory for heteroscedastic data; we show that even if the data are generated under the null hypothesis, it is possible to cheat and attain statistical significance by sequentially manipulating the error variances of the observations.
In this paper, we have developed a new class of sampling schemes for estimating parameters of binomial and Poisson distributions. Without any information of the unknown parameters, our sampling schemes rigorously guarantee prescribed levels of precision and confidence.
We propose and study a general method for construction of consistent statistical tests on the basis of possibly indirect, corrupted, or partially available observations. The class of tests devised in the paper contains Neymans smooth tests, data-driven score tests, and some types of multi-sample tests as basic examples. Our tests are data-driven and are additionally incorporated with model selection rules. The method allows to use a wide class of model selection rules that are based on the penalization idea. In particular, many of the optimal penalties, derived in statistical literature, can be used in our tests. We establish the behavior of model selection rules and data-driven tests under both the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis, derive an explicit detectability rule for alternative hypotheses, and prove a master consistency theorem for the tests from the class. The paper shows that the tests are applicable to a wide range of problems, including hypothesis testing in statistical inverse problems, multi-sample problems, and nonparametric hypothesis testing.
In this work, we study the partial sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with the number of terms following a fractional Poisson (FP) distribution. The FP sum contains the Poisson and geometric summations as particular cases. We show that the weak limit of the FP summation, when properly normalized, is a mixture between the normal and Mittag-Leffler distributions, which we call by Normal-Mittag-Leffler (NML) law. A parameter estimation procedure for the NML distribution is developed and the associated asymptotic distribution is derived. Simulations are performed to check the performance of the proposed estimators under finite samples. An empirical illustration on the daily log-returns of the Brazilian stock exchange index (IBOVESPA) shows that the NML distribution captures better the tails than some of its competitors. Related problems such as a mixed Poisson representation for the FP law and the weak convergence for the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson random sum are also addressed.
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