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Register a new userTheory of Rumour Spreading in Complex Social Networks
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We introduce a general stochastic model for the spread of rumours, and derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the model on complex social networks (in particular those mediated by the Internet). We use analytical and numerical solutions of these equations to examine the threshold behavior and dynamics of the model on several models of such networks: random graphs, uncorrelated scale-free networks and scale-free networks with assortative degree correlations. We show that in both homogeneous networks and random graphs the model exhibits a critical threshold in the rumour spreading rate below which a rumour cannot propagate in the system. In the case of scale-free networks, on the other hand, this threshold becomes vanishingly small in the limit of infinite system size. We find that the initial rate at which a rumour spreads is much higher in scale-free networks than in random graphs, and that the rate at which the spreading proceeds on scale-free networks is further increased when assortative degree correlations are introduced. The impact of degree correlations on the final fraction of nodes that ever hears a rumour, however, depends on the interplay between network topology and the rumour spreading rate. Our results show that scale-free social networks are prone to the spreading of rumours, just as they are to the spreading of infections. They are relevant to the spreading dynamics of chain emails, viral advertising and large-scale information dissemination algorithms on the Internet.
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We propose a bare-bones stochastic model that takes into account both the geographical distribution of people within a country and their complex network of connections. The model, which is designed to give rise to a scale-free network of social connections and to visually resemble the geographical spread seen in satellite pictures of the Earth at night, gives rise to a power-law distribution for the ranking of cities by population size (but for the largest cities) and reflects the notion that highly connected individuals tend to live in highly populated areas. It also yields some interesting insights regarding Gibrats law for the rates of city growth (by population size), in partial support of the findings in a recent analysis of real data [Rozenfeld et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 18702 (2008)]. The model produces a nontrivial relation between city population and city population density and a superlinear relationship between social connectivity and city population, both of which seem quite in line with real data.
Spreading processes have been largely studied in the literature, both analytically and by means of large-scale numerical simulations. These processes mainly include the propagation of diseases, rumors and information on top of a given population. In the last two decades, with the advent of modern network science, we have witnessed significant advances in this field of research. Here we review the main theoretical and numerical methods developed for the study of spreading processes on complex networked systems. Specifically, we formally define epidemic processes on single and multilayer networks and discuss in detail the main methods used to perform numerical simulations. Throughout the review, we classify spreading processes (disease and rumor models) into two classes according to the nature of time: (i) continuous-time and (ii) cellular automata approach, where the second one can be further divided into synchronous and asynchronous updating schemes. Our revision includes the heterogeneous mean-field, the quenched-mean field, and the pair quenched mean field approaches, as well as their respective simulation techniques, emphasizing similarities and differences among the different techniques. The content presented here offers a whole suite of methods to study epidemic-like processes in complex networks, both for researchers without previous experience in the subject and for experts.
We have two main aims in this paper. First we use theories of disease spreading on networks to look at the COVID-19 epidemic on the basis of individual contacts -- these give rise to predictions which are often rather different from the homogeneous mixing approaches usually used. Our second aim is to look at the role of social deprivation, again using networks as our basis, in the spread of this epidemic. We choose the city of Kolkata as a case study, but assert that the insights so obtained are applicable to a wide variety of urban environments which are densely populated and where social inequalities are rampant. Our predictions of hotspots are found to be in good agreement with those currently being identifed empirically as containment zones and provide a useful guide for identifying potential areas of concern.
We study a general epidemic model with arbitrary recovery rate distributions. This simple deviation from the standard setup is sufficient to prove that heterogeneity in the dynamical parameters can be as important as the more studied structural heterogeneity. Our analytical solution is able to predict the shift in the critical properties induced by heterogeneous recovery rates. Additionally, we show that the critical value of infectivity tends to be smaller than the one predicted by quenched mean-field approaches in the homogeneous case and that it can be linked to the variance of the recovery rates. We then illustrate the role of dynamical--structural correlations, which allow for a complete change in the critical behavior. We show that it is possible for a power-law network topology to behave similarly to a homogeneous structure by an appropriate tuning of its recovery rates, and vice versa. Finally, we show how heterogeneity in recovery rates affects the network localization properties of the spreading process.
A model for epidemic spreading on rewiring networks is introduced and analyzed for the case of scale free steady state networks. It is found that contrary to what one would have naively expected, the rewiring process typically tends to suppress epidemic spreading. In particular it is found that as in static networks, rewiring networks with degree distribution exponent $gamma >3$ exhibit a threshold in the infection rate below which epidemics die out in the steady state. However the threshold is higher in the rewiring case. For $2<gamma leq 3$ no such threshold exists, but for small infection rate the steady state density of infected nodes (prevalence) is smaller for rewiring networks.
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