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We investigate the general problem of how to model the kinematics of stock prices without considering the dynamical causes of motion. We propose a stochastic process with long-range correlated absolute returns. We find that the model is able to reproduce the experimentally observed clustering, power law memory, fat tails and multifractality of real financial time series. We find that the distribution of stock returns is approximated by a Gaussian with log-normally distributed local variance and shows excellent agreement with the behavior of the NYSE index for a range of time scales.
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This paper investigates the rank distribution, cumulative probability, and probability density of price returns for the stocks traded in the KSE and the KOSDAQ market. This research demonstrates that the rank distribution is consistent approximately with the Zipfs law with exponent $alpha = -1.00$ (KSE) and -1.31 (KOSDAQ), similar that of stock prices traded on the TSE. In addition, the cumulative probability distribution follows a power law with scaling exponent $beta = -1.23$ (KSE) and -1.45 (KOSDAQ). In particular, the evidence displays that the probability density of normalized price returns for two kinds of assets almost has the form of an exponential function, similar to the result in the TSE and the NYSE.
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant factor, we show that most of these correlations, measured by a variety of different indicators, can be accounted for. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations. However, more subtle effects require an extension of the one factor model, where the variance and skewness of the residuals also depend on the market return.
We study the rank distribution, the cumulative probability, and the probability density of returns of stock prices of listed firms traded in four stock markets. We find that the rank distribution and the cumulative probability of stock prices traded in are consistent approximately with the Zipfs law or a power law. It is also obtained that the probability density of normalized returns for listed stocks almost has the form of the exponential function. Our results are compared with those of other numerical calculations.
This paper presents a statistical analysis of Tehran Price Index (TePIx) for the period of 1992 to 2004. The results present asymmetric property of the return distribution which tends to the right hand of the mean. Also the return distribution can be fitted by a stable Levy distribution and the tails are very fatter than the gaussian distribution. We estimate the tail index of the TePIx returns with two different methods and the results are consistent with the previous studies on the stock markets. A strong autocorrelation has been detected in the TePIx time series representing a long memory of several trading days. We have also applied a Zipf analysis on the TePIx data presenting strong correlations between the TePIx daily fluctuations. We hope that this paper be able to give a brief description about the statistical behavior of financial data in Iran stock market.
A classic problem in physics is the origin of fat tailed distributions generated by complex systems. We study the distributions of stock returns measured over different time lags $tau.$ We find that destroying all correlations without changing the $tau = 1$ d distribution, by shuffling the order of the daily returns, causes the fat tails almost to vanish for $tau>1$ d. We argue that the fat tails are caused by known long-range volatility correlations. Indeed, destroying only sign correlations, by shuffling the order of only the signs (but not the absolute values) of the daily returns, allows the fat tails to persist for $tau >1$ d.
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