Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userCorrelation structure of extreme stock returns
355
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time independent correlations. Using surrogate data with the true market return as the dominant factor, we show that most of these correlations, measured by a variety of different indicators, can be accounted for. In particular, this one-factor model can explain the level and asymmetry of empirical exceedance correlations. However, more subtle effects require an extension of the one factor model, where the variance and skewness of the residuals also depend on the market return.
rate research
Read More
We investigate the general problem of how to model the kinematics of stock prices without considering the dynamical causes of motion. We propose a stochastic process with long-range correlated absolute returns. We find that the model is able to reproduce the experimentally observed clustering, power law memory, fat tails and multifractality of real financial time series. We find that the distribution of stock returns is approximated by a Gaussian with log-normally distributed local variance and shows excellent agreement with the behavior of the NYSE index for a range of time scales.
In this study, we investigate the statistical properties of the returns and the trading volume. We show a typical example of power-law distributions of the return and of the trading volume. Next, we propose an interacting agent model of stock markets inspired from statistical mechanics [24] to explore the empirical findings. We show that as the interaction among the interacting traders strengthens both the returns and the trading volume present power-law behavior.
Using the Generalised Lotka Volterra (GLV) model adapted to deal with muti agent systems we can investigate economic systems from a general viewpoint and obtain generic features common to most economies. Assuming only weak generic assumptions on capital dynamics, we are able to obtain very specific predictions for the distribution of social wealth. First, we show that in a fair market, the wealth distribution among individual investors fulfills a power law. We then argue that fair play for capital and minimal socio-biological needs of the humans traps the economy within a power law wealth distribution with a particular Pareto exponent $alpha sim 3/2$. In particular we relate it to the average number of individuals L depending on the average wealth: $alpha sim L/(L-1)$. Then we connect it to certain power exponents characterising the stock markets. We obtain that the distribution of volumes of the individual (buy and sell) orders follows a power law with similar exponent $beta sim alpha sim 3/2$. Consequently, in a market where trades take place by matching pairs of such sell and buy orders, the corresponding exponent for the market returns is expected to be of order $gamma sim 2 alpha sim 3$. These results are consistent with recent experimental measurements of these power law exponents ([Maslov 2001] for $beta$ and [Gopikrishnan et al. 1999] for $gamma$).
This paper presents a statistical analysis of Tehran Price Index (TePIx) for the period of 1992 to 2004. The results present asymmetric property of the return distribution which tends to the right hand of the mean. Also the return distribution can be fitted by a stable Levy distribution and the tails are very fatter than the gaussian distribution. We estimate the tail index of the TePIx returns with two different methods and the results are consistent with the previous studies on the stock markets. A strong autocorrelation has been detected in the TePIx time series representing a long memory of several trading days. We have also applied a Zipf analysis on the TePIx data presenting strong correlations between the TePIx daily fluctuations. We hope that this paper be able to give a brief description about the statistical behavior of financial data in Iran stock market.
The validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis has been under severe scrutiny since several decades. However, the evidence against it is not conclusive. Artificial Neural Networks provide a model-free means to analize the prediction power of past returns on current returns. This chapter analizes the predictability in the intraday Brazilian stock market using a backpropagation Artificial Neural Network. We selected 20 stocks from Bovespa index, according to different market capitalization, as a proxy for stock size. We find that predictability is related to capitalization. In particular, larger stocks are less predictable than smaller ones.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
