Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userEclipse Prediction and Orbit Improvement for Asteroids: Theory and Application to Near Earth Asteroids
78
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
Asteroids can be eclipsed by other bodies in the Solar System, but no direct observation of an asteroid eclipse has been reported to date. We describe a statistical method to predict an eclipse for an asteroid based on the analysis of the orbital elements covariance matrix. By propagating a set of Virtual Asteroids to an epoch correspondent to a close approach with a Solar System planet or natural satellite, it is possible to estimate the probability of a partial or total eclipse. The direct observation of an eclipse can provide data useful to improve the asteroid orbit, especially for dim asteroids typically observed only for a few days. We propose two different methods: the first, based on the inclusion of the apparent magnitude residuals into the orbits least squares minimization process, capable of improving the asteroids nominal orbit and the related covariance matrix; the second, based on weighting different Virtual Asteroids in relation to their apparent magnitude during the eclipse, useful for recovery purposes. As an application, we have numerically investigated the possibility of a Near Earth Asteroid eclipsed by the Moon or the Earth in the 1990-2050 period. A total of 74 distinct eclipses have been found, involving 59 asteroids. In particular, the asteroid (99942) Apophis has a probability of about 74% to enter the Moons penumbra cone and a probability of about 6% to enter the umbra cone on April 14, 2029, less than six hours after a very close approach to Earth.
rate research
Read More
Gaia is an astrometric mission that will be launched in 2013 and set on L2 point of Lagrange. It will observe a large number of Solar System Objets (SSO) down to magnitude 20. The Solar System Science goal is to map thousand of Main Belt asteroids (MBAs), Near Earth Objects (NEOs) (including comets) and also planetary satellites with the principal purpuse of orbital determination (better than 5 mas astrometric precision), determination of asteroid mass, spin properties and taxonomy. Besides, Gaia will be able to discover a few objects, in particular NEOs in the region down to the solar elongation 45{deg} which are harder to detect with current ground-based surveys. But Gaia is not a follow-up mission and newly discovered objects can be lost if no ground-based recovery is processed. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of Gaia data for the known NEAs population and to show how to handle the problem of these discoveries when faint number of observations and thus very short arc is provided.
The Yarkovsky effect is a thermal process acting upon the orbits of small celestial bodies, which can cause these orbits to slowly expand or contract with time. The effect is subtle (da/dt ~ 10^-4 au/My for a 1 km diameter object) and is thus generally difficult to measure. We analyzed both optical and radar astrometry for 600 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) for the purpose of detecting and quantifying the Yarkovsky effect. We present 247 NEAs with measured drift rates, which is the largest published set of Yarkovsky detections. This large sample size provides an opportunity to examine the Yarkovsky effect in a statistical manner. In particular, we describe two independent population-based tests that verify the measurement of Yarkovsky orbital drift. First, we provide observational confirmation for the Yarkovsky effects theoretical size dependence of 1/D, where D is diameter. Second, we find that the observed ratio of negative to positive drift rates in our sample is 2.34, which, accounting for bias and sampling uncertainty, implies an actual ratio of $2.7^{+0.3}_{-0.7}$. This ratio has a vanishingly small probability of occurring due to chance or statistical noise. The observed ratio of retrograde to prograde rotators is two times lower than the ratio expected from numerical predictions from NEA population studies and traditional assumptions about the sense of rotation of NEAs originating from various main belt escape routes. We also examine the efficiency with which solar energy is converted into orbital energy and find a median efficiency in our sample of 12%. We interpret this efficiency in terms of NEA spin and thermal properties.
We seek evidence of the Yarkovsky effect among Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by measuring the Yarkovsky-related orbital drift from the orbital fit. To prevent the occurrence of unreliable detections we employ a high precision dynamical model, including the Newtonian attraction of 16 massive asteroids and the planetary relativistic terms, and a suitable astrometric data treatment. We find 21 NEAs whose orbital fits show a measurable orbital drift with a signal to noise ratio (SNR) greater than 3. The best determination is for asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36, resulting in the recovery of one radar apparition and an orbit improvement by two orders of magnitude. In addition, we find 16 cases with a lower SNR that, despite being less reliable, are good candidates for becoming stronger detections in the future. In some cases it is possible to constrain physical quantities otherwise unknown by means of the detected orbital drift. Furthermore, the distribution of the detected orbital drifts shows an excess of retrograde rotators that can be connected to the delivery mechanism from the most important NEA feeding resonances and allows us to infer the distribution for NEAs obliquity. We discuss the implications of the Yarkovsky effect for impact predictions. In particular, for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA our results favor a retrograde rotation that would rule out an impact in 2880.
The cryogenic WISE mission in 2010 was extremely sensitive to asteroids and not biased against detecting dark objects. The albedos of 428 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) observed by WISE during its fully cryogenic mission can be fit quite well by a 3 parameter function that is the sum of two Rayleigh distributions. The Rayleigh distribution is zero for negative values, and follows $f(x) = x exp[-x^2/(2sigma^2)]/sigma^2$ for positive x. The peak value is at x=sigma, so the position and width are tied together. The three parameters are the fraction of the objects in the dark population, the position of the dark peak, and the position of the brighter peak. We find that 25.3% of the NEAs observed by WISE are in a very dark population peaking at $p_V = 0.03$, while the other 74.7% of the NEAs seen by WISE are in a moderately dark population peaking at $p_V = 0.168$. A consequence of this bimodal distribution is that the Congressional mandate to find 90% of all NEAs larger than 140 m diameter cannot be satisfied by surveying to H=22 mag, since a 140 m diameter asteroid at the very dark peak has H=23.7 mag, and more than 10% of NEAs are darker than p_V = 0.03.
In this article, theory-based analytical methodologies of astrophysics employed in the modern era are suitably operated alongside a test research-grade telescope to image and determine the orbit of a near-earth asteroid from original observations, measurements, and calculations. Subsequently, its intrinsic orbital path has been calculated including the chance it would likely impact Earth in the time ahead. More so specifically, this case-study incorporates the most effective, feasible, and novel Gausss Method in order to maneuver the orbital plane components of a planetesimal, further elaborating and extending our probes on a selected near-earth asteroid (namely the 12538-1998 OH) through the observational data acquired over a six week period. Utilizing the CCD (Charge Coupled Device) snapshots captured, we simulate and calculate the orbit of our asteroid as outlined in quite detailed explanations. The uncertainties and deviations from the expected values are derived to reach a judgement whether our empirical findings are truly reliable and representative measurements by partaking a statistical analysis based systematic approach. Concluding the study by narrating what could have caused such discrepancy of findings in the first place, if any, measures are put forward that could be undertaken to improve the test-case for future investigations. Following the calculation of orbital elements and their uncertainties using Monte Carlo analysis, simulations were executed with various sample celestial bodies to derive a plausible prediction regarding the fate of Asteroid 1998 OH. Finally, the astrometric and photometric data, after their precise verification, were officially submitted to the Minor Planet Center: an organization hosted by the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard and Smithsonian and funded by NASA, for keeping track of the asteroids potential trajectories.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
