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Register a new userAn Improved Approach to Orbital Determination and Prediction of Near-Earth Asteroids: Computer Simulation, Modeling and Test Measurements
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In this article, theory-based analytical methodologies of astrophysics employed in the modern era are suitably operated alongside a test research-grade telescope to image and determine the orbit of a near-earth asteroid from original observations, measurements, and calculations. Subsequently, its intrinsic orbital path has been calculated including the chance it would likely impact Earth in the time ahead. More so specifically, this case-study incorporates the most effective, feasible, and novel Gausss Method in order to maneuver the orbital plane components of a planetesimal, further elaborating and extending our probes on a selected near-earth asteroid (namely the 12538-1998 OH) through the observational data acquired over a six week period. Utilizing the CCD (Charge Coupled Device) snapshots captured, we simulate and calculate the orbit of our asteroid as outlined in quite detailed explanations. The uncertainties and deviations from the expected values are derived to reach a judgement whether our empirical findings are truly reliable and representative measurements by partaking a statistical analysis based systematic approach. Concluding the study by narrating what could have caused such discrepancy of findings in the first place, if any, measures are put forward that could be undertaken to improve the test-case for future investigations. Following the calculation of orbital elements and their uncertainties using Monte Carlo analysis, simulations were executed with various sample celestial bodies to derive a plausible prediction regarding the fate of Asteroid 1998 OH. Finally, the astrometric and photometric data, after their precise verification, were officially submitted to the Minor Planet Center: an organization hosted by the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard and Smithsonian and funded by NASA, for keeping track of the asteroids potential trajectories.
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The Canada-France-Hawaii Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) comprising about 25 000 MegaCam images was data mined to search for serendipitous encounters of known Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). A total of 143 asteroids (109 NEAs and 34 PHAs) were found on 508 candidate images which were field corrected and measured carefully, and their astrometry was reported to Minor Planet Centre. Both recoveries and precoveries (apparitions before discovery) were reported, including data for 27 precovered asteroids (20 NEAs and 7 PHAs) and 116 recovered asteroids (89 NEAs and 27 PHAs). Our data prolonged arcs for 41 orbits at first or last opposition, refined 35 orbits by fitting data taken at one new opposition, recovered 6 NEAs at their second opposition and allowed us to ameliorate most orbits and their Minimal Orbital Intersection Distance (MOID), an important parameter to monitor for potential Earth impact hazard in the future.
Asteroids can be eclipsed by other bodies in the Solar System, but no direct observation of an asteroid eclipse has been reported to date. We describe a statistical method to predict an eclipse for an asteroid based on the analysis of the orbital elements covariance matrix. By propagating a set of Virtual Asteroids to an epoch correspondent to a close approach with a Solar System planet or natural satellite, it is possible to estimate the probability of a partial or total eclipse. The direct observation of an eclipse can provide data useful to improve the asteroid orbit, especially for dim asteroids typically observed only for a few days. We propose two different methods: the first, based on the inclusion of the apparent magnitude residuals into the orbits least squares minimization process, capable of improving the asteroids nominal orbit and the related covariance matrix; the second, based on weighting different Virtual Asteroids in relation to their apparent magnitude during the eclipse, useful for recovery purposes. As an application, we have numerically investigated the possibility of a Near Earth Asteroid eclipsed by the Moon or the Earth in the 1990-2050 period. A total of 74 distinct eclipses have been found, involving 59 asteroids. In particular, the asteroid (99942) Apophis has a probability of about 74% to enter the Moons penumbra cone and a probability of about 6% to enter the umbra cone on April 14, 2029, less than six hours after a very close approach to Earth.
The ESO/MPG WFI and the INT WFC wide field archives comprising 330,000 images were mined to search for serendipitous encounters of known Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). A total of 152 asteroids (44 PHAs and 108 other NEAs) were identified using the PRECOVERY software, their astrometry being measured on 761 images and sent to the Minor Planet Centre. Both recoveries and precoveries were reported, including prolonged orbital arcs for 18 precovered objects and 10 recoveries. We analyze all new opposition data by comparing the orbits fitted before and after including our contributions. We conclude the paper presenting Mega-Precovery, a new online service focused on data mining of many instrument archives simultaneously for one or a few given asteroids. A total of 28 instrument archives have been made available for mining using this tool, adding together about 2.5 million images forming the Mega-Archive.
Gaia is an astrometric mission that will be launched in spring 2013. There are many scientific outcomes from this mission and as far as our Solar System is concerned, the satellite will be able to map thousands of main belt asteroids (MBAs) and near-Earth objects (NEOs) down to magnitude < 20. The high precision astrometry (0.3-5 mas of accuracy) will allow orbital improvement, mass determination, and a better accuracy in the prediction and ephemerides of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs). We give in this paper some simulation tests to analyse the impact of Gaia data on known asteroids orbit, and their value for the analysis of NEOs through the example of asteroid (99942) Apophis. We then present the need for a follow-up network for newly discovered asteroids by Gaia, insisting on the synergy of ground and space data for the orbital improvement.
The cryogenic WISE mission in 2010 was extremely sensitive to asteroids and not biased against detecting dark objects. The albedos of 428 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) observed by WISE during its fully cryogenic mission can be fit quite well by a 3 parameter function that is the sum of two Rayleigh distributions. The Rayleigh distribution is zero for negative values, and follows $f(x) = x exp[-x^2/(2sigma^2)]/sigma^2$ for positive x. The peak value is at x=sigma, so the position and width are tied together. The three parameters are the fraction of the objects in the dark population, the position of the dark peak, and the position of the brighter peak. We find that 25.3% of the NEAs observed by WISE are in a very dark population peaking at $p_V = 0.03$, while the other 74.7% of the NEAs seen by WISE are in a moderately dark population peaking at $p_V = 0.168$. A consequence of this bimodal distribution is that the Congressional mandate to find 90% of all NEAs larger than 140 m diameter cannot be satisfied by surveying to H=22 mag, since a 140 m diameter asteroid at the very dark peak has H=23.7 mag, and more than 10% of NEAs are darker than p_V = 0.03.
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