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Register a new userUrban Fire Station Location Planning: A Systematic Approach using Predicted Demand and Service Quality Index
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Added by
Arnab Dey
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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In this article, we propose a systematic approach for fire station location planning. We develop a machine learning model, based on Random Forest, for demand prediction and utilize the model further to define a generalized index to measure quality of fire service in urban settings. Our model is built upon spatial data collected from multiple different sources. Efficacy of proper facility planning depends on choice of candidates where fire stations can be located along with existing stations, if any. Also, the travel time from these candidates to demand locations need to be taken care of to maintain fire safety standard. Here, we propose a travel time based clustering technique to identify suitable candidates. Finally, we develop an optimization problem to select best locations to install new fire stations. Our optimization problem is built upon maximum coverage problem, based on integer programming. We present a detailed experimental study of our proposed approach in collaboration with city of Victoria Fire Department, MN, USA. Our demand prediction model achieves true positive rate of 70% and false positive rate of 22% approximately. We aid Victoria Fire Department to select a location for a new fire station using our approach. We present detailed results on improvement statistics by locating a new facility, as suggested by our methodology, in the city of Victoria.
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Urban air pollution has become a major environmental problem that threatens public health. It has become increasingly important to infer fine-grained urban air quality based on existing monitoring stations. One of the challenges is how to effectively select some relevant stations for air quality inference. In this paper, we propose a novel model based on reinforcement learning for urban air quality inference. The model consists of two modules: a station selector and an air quality regressor. The station selector dynamically selects the most relevant monitoring stations when inferring air quality. The air quality regressor takes in the selected stations and makes air quality inference with deep neural network. We conduct experiments on a real-world air quality dataset and our approach achieves the highest performance compared with several popular solutions, and the experiments show significant effectiveness of proposed model in tackling problems of air quality inference.
This research focuses on predicting the demand for air taxi urban air mobility (UAM) services during different times of the day in various geographic regions of New York City using machine learning algorithms (MLAs). Several ride-related factors (such as month of the year, day of the week and time of the day) and weather-related variables (such as temperature, weather conditions and visibility) are used as predictors for four popular MLAs, namely, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and gradient boosting. Experimental results suggest gradient boosting to consistently provide higher prediction performance. Specific locations, certain time periods and weekdays consistently emerged as critical predictors.
In this study, we propose a three-stage framework for the planning and scheduling of high-capacity mobility-on-demand services (e.g., micro transit and flexible transit) at urban activity hubs. The proposed framework consists of (1) the route generation step to and from the activity hub with connectivity to existing transit systems, and (2) the robust route scheduling step which determines the vehicle assignment and route headway under demand uncertainty. Efficient exact and heuristic algorithms are developed for identifying the minimum number of routes that maximize passenger coverage, and a matching scheme is proposed to combine routes to and from the hub into roundtrips optimally. With the generated routes, the robust route scheduling problem is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. Model reformulations are introduced to solve the robust optimization problem into the global optimum. In this regard, the proposed framework presents both algorithmic and analytic solutions for developing the hub-based transit services in response to the varying passenger demand over a short-time period. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, comprehensive numerical experiments are conducted for planning the HHMoD services at the JFK airport in New York City (NYC). The results show the superior performance of the proposed route generation algorithm to maximize the citywide coverage more efficiently. The results also demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of the robust route schedules under normal demand conditions and against worst-case-oriented realizations of passenger demand.
We study dynamic pricing over a finite number of periods in the presence of demand model ambiguity. Departing from the typical no-regret learning environment, where price changes are allowed at any time, pricing decisions are made at pre-specified points in time and each price can be applied to a large number of arrivals. In this environment, which arises in retailing, a pricing decision based on an incorrect demand model can significantly impact cumulative revenue. We develop an adaptively-robust-learning (ARL) pricing policy that learns the true model parameters from the data while actively managing demand model ambiguity. It optimizes an objective that is robust with respect to a self-adapting set of demand models, where a given model is included in this set only if the sales data revealed from prior pricing decisions makes it probable. As a result, it gracefully transitions from being robust when demand model ambiguity is high to minimizing regret when this ambiguity diminishes upon receiving more data. We characterize the stochastic behavior of ARLs self-adapting ambiguity sets and derive a regret bound that highlights the link between the scale of revenue loss and the customer arrival pattern. We also show that ARL, by being conscious of both model ambiguity and revenue, bridges the gap between a distributionally robust policy and a follow-the-leader policy, which focus on model ambiguity and revenue, respectively. We numerically find that the ARL policy, or its extension thereof, exhibits superior performance compared to distributionally robust, follow-the-leader, and upper-confidence-bound policies in terms of expected revenue and/or value at risk.
Freight carriers rely on tactical planning to design their service network to satisfy demand in a cost-effective way. For computational tractability, deterministic and cyclic Service Network Design (SND) formulations are used to solve large-scale problems. A central input is the periodic demand, that is, the demand expected to repeat in every period in the planning horizon. In practice, demand is predicted by a time series forecasting model and the periodic demand is the average of those forecasts. This is, however, only one of many possible mappings. The problem consisting in selecting this mapping has hitherto been overlooked in the literature. We propose to use the structure of the downstream decision-making problem to select a good mapping. For this purpose, we introduce a multilevel mathematical programming formulation that explicitly links the time series forecasts to the SND problem of interest. The solution is a periodic demand estimate that minimizes costs over the tactical planning horizon. We report results in an extensive empirical study of a large-scale application from the Canadian National Railway Company. They clearly show the importance of the periodic demand estimation problem. Indeed, the planning costs exhibit an important variation over different periodic demand estimates and using an estimate different from the mean forecast can lead to substantial cost reductions. Moreover, the costs associated with the period demand estimates based on forecasts were comparable to, or even better than those obtained using the mean of actual demand.
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