Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userSelf-adapting Robustness in Demand Learning
83
0
0.0
(
0
)
Added by
Parshan Pakiman
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We study dynamic pricing over a finite number of periods in the presence of demand model ambiguity. Departing from the typical no-regret learning environment, where price changes are allowed at any time, pricing decisions are made at pre-specified points in time and each price can be applied to a large number of arrivals. In this environment, which arises in retailing, a pricing decision based on an incorrect demand model can significantly impact cumulative revenue. We develop an adaptively-robust-learning (ARL) pricing policy that learns the true model parameters from the data while actively managing demand model ambiguity. It optimizes an objective that is robust with respect to a self-adapting set of demand models, where a given model is included in this set only if the sales data revealed from prior pricing decisions makes it probable. As a result, it gracefully transitions from being robust when demand model ambiguity is high to minimizing regret when this ambiguity diminishes upon receiving more data. We characterize the stochastic behavior of ARLs self-adapting ambiguity sets and derive a regret bound that highlights the link between the scale of revenue loss and the customer arrival pattern. We also show that ARL, by being conscious of both model ambiguity and revenue, bridges the gap between a distributionally robust policy and a follow-the-leader policy, which focus on model ambiguity and revenue, respectively. We numerically find that the ARL policy, or its extension thereof, exhibits superior performance compared to distributionally robust, follow-the-leader, and upper-confidence-bound policies in terms of expected revenue and/or value at risk.
rate research
Read More
E-commerce business is revolutionizing our shopping experiences by providing convenient and straightforward services. One of the most fundamental problems is how to balance the demand and supply in market segments to build an efficient platform. While conventional machine learning models have achieved great success on data-sufficient segments, it may fail in a large-portion of segments in E-commerce platforms, where there are not sufficient records to learn well-trained models. In this paper, we tackle this problem in the context of market segment demand prediction. The goal is to facilitate the learning process in the target segments by leveraging the learned knowledge from data-sufficient source segments. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithm, RMLDP, to incorporate a multi-pattern fusion network (MPFN) with a meta-learning paradigm. The multi-pattern fusion network considers both local and seasonal temporal patterns for segment demand prediction. In the meta-learning paradigm, transferable knowledge is regarded as the model parameter initialization of MPFN, which are learned from diverse source segments. Furthermore, we capture the segment relations by combining data-driven segment representation and segment knowledge graph representation and tailor the segment-specific relations to customize transferable model parameter initialization. Thus, even with limited data, the target segment can quickly find the most relevant transferred knowledge and adapt to the optimal parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on two large-scale industrial datasets. The results justify that our RMLDP outperforms a set of state-of-the-art baselines. Besides, RMLDP has been deployed in Taobao, a real-world E-commerce platform. The online A/B testing results further demonstrate the practicality of RMLDP.
Large scale recommender models find most relevant items from huge catalogs, and they play a critical role in modern search and recommendation systems. To model the input space with large-vocab categorical features, a typical recommender model learns a joint embedding space through neural networks for both queries and items from user feedback data. However, with millions to billions of items in the corpus, users tend to provide feedback for a very small set of them, causing a power-law distribution. This makes the feedback data for long-tail items extremely sparse. Inspired by the recent success in self-supervised representation learning research in both computer vision and natural language understanding, we propose a multi-task self-supervised learning (SSL) framework for large-scale item recommendations. The framework is designed to tackle the label sparsity problem by learning better latent relationship of item features. Specifically, SSL improves item representation learning as well as serving as additional regularization to improve generalization. Furthermore, we propose a novel data augmentation method that utilizes feature correlations within the proposed framework. We evaluate our framework using two real-world datasets with 500M and 1B training examples respectively. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of SSL regularization and show its superior performance over the state-of-the-art regularization techniques. We also have already launched the proposed techniques to a web-scale commercial app-to-app recommendation system, with significant improvements top-tier business metrics demonstrated in A/B experiments on live traffic. Our online results also verify our hypothesis that our framework indeed improves model performance even more on slices that lack supervision.
Determining what experience to generate to best facilitate learning (i.e. exploration) is one of the distinguishing features and open challenges in reinforcement learning. The advent of distributed agents that interact with parallel instances of the environment has enabled larger scales and greater flexibility, but has not removed the need to tune exploration to the task, because the ideal data for the learning algorithm necessarily depends on its process of learning. We propose to dynamically adapt the data generation by using a non-stationary multi-armed bandit to optimize a proxy of the learning progress. The data distribution is controlled by modulating multiple parameters of the policy (such as stochasticity, consistency or optimism) without significant overhead. The adaptation speed of the bandit can be increased by exploiting the factored modulation structure. We demonstrate on a suite of Atari 2600 games how this unified approach produces results comparable to per-task tuning at a fraction of the cost.
In this article, we propose a systematic approach for fire station location planning. We develop a machine learning model, based on Random Forest, for demand prediction and utilize the model further to define a generalized index to measure quality of fire service in urban settings. Our model is built upon spatial data collected from multiple different sources. Efficacy of proper facility planning depends on choice of candidates where fire stations can be located along with existing stations, if any. Also, the travel time from these candidates to demand locations need to be taken care of to maintain fire safety standard. Here, we propose a travel time based clustering technique to identify suitable candidates. Finally, we develop an optimization problem to select best locations to install new fire stations. Our optimization problem is built upon maximum coverage problem, based on integer programming. We present a detailed experimental study of our proposed approach in collaboration with city of Victoria Fire Department, MN, USA. Our demand prediction model achieves true positive rate of 70% and false positive rate of 22% approximately. We aid Victoria Fire Department to select a location for a new fire station using our approach. We present detailed results on improvement statistics by locating a new facility, as suggested by our methodology, in the city of Victoria.
A long-standing challenge in Reinforcement Learning is enabling agents to learn a model of their environment which can be transferred to solve other problems in a world with the same underlying rules. One reason this is difficult is the challenge of learning accurate models of an environment. If such a model is inaccurate, the agents plans and actions will likely be sub-optimal, and likely lead to the wrong outcomes. Recent progress in model-based reinforcement learning has improved the ability for agents to learn and use predictive models. In this paper, we extend a recent deep learning architecture which learns a predictive model of the environment that aims to predict only the value of a few key measurements, which are be indicative of an agents performance. Predicting only a few measurements rather than the entire future state of an environment makes it more feasible to learn a valuable predictive model. We extend this predictive model with a small, evolving neural network that suggests the best goals to pursue in the current state. We demonstrate that this allows the predictive model to transfer to new scenarios where goals are different, and that the adaptive goals can even adjust agent behavior on-line, changing its strategy to fit the current context.
suggested questions
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
