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Register a new userSurvival Prediction of Heart Failure Patients using Stacked Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithm
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Added by
Md. Mohsin Sarker Raihan
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Cardiovascular disease, especially heart failure is one of the major health hazard issues of our time and is a leading cause of death worldwide. Advancement in data mining techniques using machine learning (ML) models is paving promising prediction approaches. Data mining is the process of converting massive volumes of raw data created by the healthcare institutions into meaningful information that can aid in making predictions and crucial decisions. Collecting various follow-up data from patients who have had heart failures, analyzing those data, and utilizing several ML models to predict the survival possibility of cardiovascular patients is the key aim of this study. Due to the imbalance of the classes in the dataset, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) has been implemented. Two unsupervised models (K-Means and Fuzzy C-Means clustering) and three supervised classifiers (Random Forest, XGBoost and Decision Tree) have been used in our study. After thorough investigation, our results demonstrate a superior performance of the supervised ML algorithms over unsupervised models. Moreover, we designed and propose a supervised stacked ensemble learning model that can achieve an accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score of 99.98%. Our study shows that only certain attributes collected from the patients are imperative to successfully predict the surviving possibility post heart failure, using supervised ML algorithms.
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The Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RTPCR) test is the silver bullet diagnostic test to discern COVID infection. Rapid antigen detection is a screening test to identify COVID positive patients in little as 15 minutes, but has a lower sensitivity than the PCR tests. Besides having multiple standardized test kits, many people are getting infected & either recovering or dying even before the test due to the shortage and cost of kits, lack of indispensable specialists and labs, time-consuming result compared to bulk population especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. Intrigued by the parametric deviations in immunological & hematological profile of a COVID patient, this research work leveraged the concept of COVID-19 detection by proposing a risk-free and highly accurate Stacked Ensemble Machine Learning model to identify a COVID patient from communally available-widespread-cheap routine blood tests which gives a promising accuracy, precision, recall & F1-score of 100%. Analysis from R-curve also shows the preciseness of the risk-free model to be implemented. The proposed method has the potential for large scale ubiquitous low-cost screening application. This can add an extra layer of protection in keeping the number of infected cases to a minimum and control the pandemic by identifying asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people early.
Cardiovascular diseases and their associated disorder of heart failure are one of the major death causes globally, being a priority for doctors to detect and predict its onset and medical consequences. Artificial Intelligence (AI) allows doctors to discover clinical indicators and enhance their diagnosis and treatments. Specifically, explainable AI offers tools to improve the clinical prediction models that experience poor interpretability of their results. This work presents an explainability analysis and evaluation of a prediction model for heart failure survival by using a dataset that comprises 299 patients who suffered heart failure. The model employs a data workflow pipeline able to select the best ensemble tree algorithm as well as the best feature selection technique. Moreover, different post-hoc techniques have been used for the explainability analysis of the model. The papers main contribution is an explainability-driven approach to select the best prediction model for HF survival based on an accuracy-explainability balance. Therefore, the most balanced explainable prediction model implements an Extra Trees classifier over 5 selected features (follow-up time, serum creatinine, ejection fraction, age and diabetes) out of 12, achieving a balanced-accuracy of 85.1% and 79.5% with cross-validation and new unseen data respectively. The follow-up time is the most influencing feature followed by serum-creatinine and ejection-fraction. The explainable prediction model for HF survival presented in this paper would improve a further adoption of clinical prediction models by providing doctors with intuitions to better understand the reasoning of, usually, black-box AI clinical solutions, and make more reasonable and data-driven decisions.
A subcritical load on a disordered material can induce creep damage. The creep rate in this case exhibits three temporal regimes viz. an initial decelerating regime followed by a steady-state regime and a stage of accelerating creep that ultimately leads to catastrophic breakdown. Due to the statistical regularities in the creep rate, the time evolution of creep rate has often been used to predict residual lifetime until catastrophic breakdown. However, in disordered samples, these efforts met with limited success. Nevertheless, it is clear that as the failure is approached, the damage become increasingly spatially correlated, and the spatio-temporal patterns of acoustic emission, which serve as a proxy for damage accumulation activity, are likely to mirror such correlations. However, due to the high dimensionality of the data and the complex nature of the correlations it is not straightforward to identify the said correlations and thereby the precursory signals of failure. Here we use supervised machine learning to estimate the remaining time to failure of samples of disordered materials. The machine learning algorithm uses as input the temporal signal provided by a mesoscale elastoplastic model for the evolution of creep damage in disordered solids. Machine learning algorithms are well-suited for assessing the proximity to failure from the time series of the acoustic emissions of sheared samples. We show that materials are relatively more predictable for higher disorder while are relatively less predictable for larger system sizes. We find that machine learning predictions, in the vast majority of cases, perform substantially better than other prediction approaches proposed in the literature.
This report assesses different machine learning approaches to 10-year survival prediction of breast cancer patients.
Predicting the incidence of complex chronic conditions such as heart failure is challenging. Deep learning models applied to rich electronic health records may improve prediction but remain unexplainable hampering their wider use in medical practice. We developed a novel Transformer deep-learning model for more accurate and yet explainable prediction of incident heart failure involving 100,071 patients from longitudinal linked electronic health records across the UK. On internal 5-fold cross validation and held-out external validation, our model achieved 0.93 and 0.93 area under the receiver operator curve and 0.69 and 0.70 area under the precision-recall curve, respectively and outperformed existing deep learning models. Predictor groups included all community and hospital diagnoses and medications contextualised within the age and calendar year for each patients clinical encounter. The importance of contextualised medical information was revealed in a number of sensitivity analyses, and our perturbation method provided a way of identifying factors contributing to risk. Many of the identified risk factors were consistent with existing knowledge from clinical and epidemiological research but several new associations were revealed which had not been considered in expert-driven risk prediction models.
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