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Register a new userDevelopment of Risk-Free COVID-19 Screening Algorithm from Routine Blood Test using Ensemble Machine Learning
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Added by
Md. Mohi Uddin Khan
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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The Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RTPCR) test is the silver bullet diagnostic test to discern COVID infection. Rapid antigen detection is a screening test to identify COVID positive patients in little as 15 minutes, but has a lower sensitivity than the PCR tests. Besides having multiple standardized test kits, many people are getting infected & either recovering or dying even before the test due to the shortage and cost of kits, lack of indispensable specialists and labs, time-consuming result compared to bulk population especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. Intrigued by the parametric deviations in immunological & hematological profile of a COVID patient, this research work leveraged the concept of COVID-19 detection by proposing a risk-free and highly accurate Stacked Ensemble Machine Learning model to identify a COVID patient from communally available-widespread-cheap routine blood tests which gives a promising accuracy, precision, recall & F1-score of 100%. Analysis from R-curve also shows the preciseness of the risk-free model to be implemented. The proposed method has the potential for large scale ubiquitous low-cost screening application. This can add an extra layer of protection in keeping the number of infected cases to a minimum and control the pandemic by identifying asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people early.
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Cardiovascular disease, especially heart failure is one of the major health hazard issues of our time and is a leading cause of death worldwide. Advancement in data mining techniques using machine learning (ML) models is paving promising prediction approaches. Data mining is the process of converting massive volumes of raw data created by the healthcare institutions into meaningful information that can aid in making predictions and crucial decisions. Collecting various follow-up data from patients who have had heart failures, analyzing those data, and utilizing several ML models to predict the survival possibility of cardiovascular patients is the key aim of this study. Due to the imbalance of the classes in the dataset, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) has been implemented. Two unsupervised models (K-Means and Fuzzy C-Means clustering) and three supervised classifiers (Random Forest, XGBoost and Decision Tree) have been used in our study. After thorough investigation, our results demonstrate a superior performance of the supervised ML algorithms over unsupervised models. Moreover, we designed and propose a supervised stacked ensemble learning model that can achieve an accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score of 99.98%. Our study shows that only certain attributes collected from the patients are imperative to successfully predict the surviving possibility post heart failure, using supervised ML algorithms.
The COVID-19 is sweeping the world with deadly consequences. Its contagious nature and clinical similarity to other pneumonias make separating subjects contracted with COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia a priority and a challenge. However, COVID-19 testing has been greatly limited by the availability and cost of existing methods, even in developed countries like the US. Intrigued by the wide availability of routine blood tests, we propose to leverage them for COVID-19 testing using the power of machine learning. Two proven-robust machine learning model families, random forests (RFs) and support vector machines (SVMs), are employed to tackle the challenge. Trained on blood data from 208 moderate COVID-19 subjects and 86 subjects with non-COVID-19 moderate viral pneumonia, the best result is obtained in an SVM-based classifier with an accuracy of 84%, a sensitivity of 88%, a specificity of 80%, and a precision of 92%. The results are found explainable from both machine learning and medical perspectives. A privacy-protected web portal is set up to help medical personnel in their practice and the trained models are released for developers to further build other applications. We hope our results can help the world fight this pandemic and welcome clinical verification of our approach on larger populations.
Digital contact tracing apps for COVID, such as the one developed by Google and Apple, need to estimate the risk that a user was infected during a particular exposure, in order to decide whether to notify the user to take precautions, such as entering into quarantine, or requesting a test. Such risk score models contain numerous parameters that must be set by the public health authority. In this paper, we show how to automatically learn these parameters from data. Our method needs access to exposure and outcome data. Although this data is already being collected (in an aggregated, privacy-preserving way) by several health authorities, in this paper we limit ourselves to simulated data, so that we can systematically study the different factors that affect the feasibility of the approach. In particular, we show that the parameters become harder to estimate when there is more missing data (e.g., due to infections which were not recorded by the app), and when there is model misspecification. Nevertheless, the learning approach outperforms a strong manually designed baseline. Furthermore, the learning approach can adapt even when the risk factors of the disease change, e.g., due to the evolution of new variants, or the adoption of vaccines.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for robust, scalable monitoring tools supporting stratification of high-risk patients. This research aims to develop and validate prediction models, using the UK Biobank, to estimate COVID-19 mortality risk in confirmed cases. From the 11,245 participants testing positive for COVID-19, we develop a data-driven random forest classification model with excellent performance (AUC: 0.91), using baseline characteristics, pre-existing conditions, symptoms, and vital signs, such that the score could dynamically assess mortality risk with disease deterioration. We also identify several significant novel predictors of COVID-19 mortality with equivalent or greater predictive value than established high-risk comorbidities, such as detailed anthropometrics and prior acute kidney failure, urinary tract infection, and pneumonias. The model design and feature selection enables utility in outpatient settings. Possible applications include supporting individual-level risk profiling and monitoring disease progression across patients with COVID-19 at-scale, especially in hospital-at-home settings.
It is still nontrivial to develop a new fast COVID-19 screening method with the easier access and lower cost, due to the technical and cost limitations of the current testing methods in the medical resource-poor districts. On the other hand, there are more and more ocular manifestations that have been reported in the COVID-19 patients as growing clinical evidence[1]. This inspired this project. We have conducted the joint clinical research since January 2021 at the ShiJiaZhuang City, Heibei province, China, which approved by the ethics committee of The fifth hospital of ShiJiaZhuang of Hebei Medical University. We undertake several blind tests of COVID-19 patients by Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. Meantime as an important part of the ongoing globally COVID-19 eye test program by AIMOMICS since February 2020, we propose a new fast screening method of analyzing the eye-region images, captured by common CCD and CMOS cameras. This could reliably make a rapid risk screening of COVID-19 with the sustainable stable high performance in different countries and races. Our model for COVID-19 rapid prescreening have the merits of the lower cost, fully self-performed, non-invasive, importantly real-time, and thus enables the continuous health surveillance. We further implement it as the open accessible APIs, and provide public service to the world. Our pilot experiments show that our model is ready to be usable to all kinds of surveillance scenarios, such as infrared temperature measurement device at airports and stations, or directly pushing to the target people groups smartphones as a packaged application.
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