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This report assesses different machine learning approaches to 10-year survival prediction of breast cancer patients.
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Breast cancer is the most frequently reported cancer type among the women around the globe and beyond that it has the second highest female fatality rate among all cancer types. Despite all the progresses made in prevention and early intervention, early prognosis and survival prediction rates are still unsatisfactory. In this paper, we propose a novel type of perceptron called L-Perceptron which outperforms all the previous supervised learning methods by reaching 97.42 % and 98.73 % in terms of accuracy and sensitivity, respectively in Wisconsin Breast Cancer dataset. Experimental results on Habermans Breast Cancer Survival dataset, show the superiority of proposed method by reaching 75.18 % and 83.86 % in terms of accuracy and F1 score, respectively. The results are the best reported ones obtained in 10-fold cross validation in absence of any preprocessing or feature selection.
Cardiovascular disease, especially heart failure is one of the major health hazard issues of our time and is a leading cause of death worldwide. Advancement in data mining techniques using machine learning (ML) models is paving promising prediction approaches. Data mining is the process of converting massive volumes of raw data created by the healthcare institutions into meaningful information that can aid in making predictions and crucial decisions. Collecting various follow-up data from patients who have had heart failures, analyzing those data, and utilizing several ML models to predict the survival possibility of cardiovascular patients is the key aim of this study. Due to the imbalance of the classes in the dataset, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) has been implemented. Two unsupervised models (K-Means and Fuzzy C-Means clustering) and three supervised classifiers (Random Forest, XGBoost and Decision Tree) have been used in our study. After thorough investigation, our results demonstrate a superior performance of the supervised ML algorithms over unsupervised models. Moreover, we designed and propose a supervised stacked ensemble learning model that can achieve an accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score of 99.98%. Our study shows that only certain attributes collected from the patients are imperative to successfully predict the surviving possibility post heart failure, using supervised ML algorithms.
Recently, several classifiers that combine primary tumor data, like gene expression data, and secondary data sources, such as protein-protein interaction networks, have been proposed for predicting outcome in breast cancer. In these approaches, new composite features are typically constructed by aggregating the expression levels of several genes. The secondary data sources are employed to guide this aggregation. Although many studies claim that these approaches improve classification performance over single gene classifiers, the gain in performance is difficult to assess. This stems mainly from the fact that different breast cancer data sets and validation procedures are employed to assess the performance. Here we address these issues by employing a large cohort of six breast cancer data sets as benchmark set and by performing an unbiased evaluation of the classification accuracies of the different approaches. Contrary to previous claims, we find that composite feature classifiers do not outperform simple single gene classifiers. We investigate the effect of (1) the number of selected features; (2) the specific gene set from which features are selected; (3) the size of the training set and (4) the heterogeneity of the data set on the performance of composite feature and single gene classifiers. Strikingly, we find that randomization of secondary data sources, which destroys all biological information in these sources, does not result in a deterioration in performance of composite feature classifiers. Finally, we show that when a proper correction for gene set size is performed, the stability of single gene sets is similar to the stability of composite feature sets. Based on these results there is currently no reason to prefer prognostic classifiers based on composite features over single gene classifiers for predicting outcome in breast cancer.
Deriving interpretable prognostic features from deep-learning-based prognostic histopathology models remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a deep learning system (DLS) for predicting disease specific survival for stage II and III colorectal cancer using 3,652 cases (27,300 slides). When evaluated on two validation datasets containing 1,239 cases (9,340 slides) and 738 cases (7,140 slides) respectively, the DLS achieved a 5-year disease-specific survival AUC of 0.70 (95%CI 0.66-0.73) and 0.69 (95%CI 0.64-0.72), and added significant predictive value to a set of 9 clinicopathologic features. To interpret the DLS, we explored the ability of different human-interpretable features to explain the variance in DLS scores. We observed that clinicopathologic features such as T-category, N-category, and grade explained a small fraction of the variance in DLS scores (R2=18% in both validation sets). Next, we generated human-interpretable histologic features by clustering embeddings from a deep-learning based image-similarity model and showed that they explain the majority of the variance (R2 of 73% to 80%). Furthermore, the clustering-derived feature most strongly associated with high DLS scores was also highly prognostic in isolation. With a distinct visual appearance (poorly differentiated tumor cell clusters adjacent to adipose tissue), this feature was identified by annotators with 87.0-95.5% accuracy. Our approach can be used to explain predictions from a prognostic deep learning model and uncover potentially-novel prognostic features that can be reliably identified by people for future validation studies.
Prediction of Overall Survival (OS) of brain cancer patients from multi-modal MRI is a challenging field of research. Most of the existing literature on survival prediction is based on Radiomic features, which does not consider either non-biological factors or the functional neurological status of the patient(s). Besides, the selection of an appropriate cut-off for survival and the presence of censored data create further problems. Application of deep learning models for OS prediction is also limited due to the lack of large annotated publicly available datasets. In this scenario we analyse the potential of two novel neuroimaging feature families, extracted from brain parcellation atlases and spatial habitats, along with classical radiomic and geometric features; to study their combined predictive power for analysing overall survival. A cross validation strategy with grid search is proposed to simultaneously select and evaluate the most predictive feature subset based on its predictive power. A Cox Proportional Hazard (CoxPH) model is employed for univariate feature selection, followed by the prediction of patient-specific survival functions by three multivariate parsimonious models viz. Coxnet, Random survival forests (RSF) and Survival SVM (SSVM). The brain cancer MRI data used for this research was taken from two open-access collections TCGA-GBM and TCGA-LGG available from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA). Corresponding survival data for each patient was downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). A high cross validation $C-index$ score of $0.82pm.10$ was achieved using RSF with the best $24$ selected features. Age was found to be the most important biological predictor. There were $9$, $6$, $6$ and $2$ features selected from the parcellation, habitat, radiomic and region-based feature groups respectively.
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