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Register a new userImpact of Load Demand Dataset Characteristics on Clustering Validation Indices
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Added by
Soumyabrata Dev
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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With the inclusion of smart meters, electricity load consumption data can be fetched for individual consumer buildings at high temporal resolutions. Availability of such data has made it possible to study daily load demand profiles of the households. Clustering households based on their demand profiles is one of the primary, yet a key component of such analysis. While many clustering algorithms/frameworks can be deployed to perform clustering, they usually generate very different clusters. In order to identify the best clustering results, various cluster validation indices (CVIs) have been proposed in the literature. However, it has been noticed that different CVIs often recommend different algorithms. This leads to the problem of identifying the most suitable CVI for a given dataset. Responding to the problem, this paper shows how the recommendations of validation indices are influenced by different data characteristics that might be present in a typical residential load demand dataset. Furthermore, the paper identifies the features of data that prefer/prohibit the use of a particular cluster validation index.
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Large-scale deployment of smart meters has made it possible to collect sufficient and high-resolution data of residential electric demand profiles. Clustering analysis of these profiles is important to further analyze and comment on electricity consumption patterns. Although many clustering techniques have been proposed in the literature over the years, it is often noticed that different techniques fit best for different datasets. To identify the most suitable technique, standard clustering validity indices are often used. These indices focus primarily on the intrinsic characteristics of the clustering results. Moreover, different indices often give conflicting recommendations which can only be clarified with heuristics about the dataset and/or the expected cluster structures -- information that is rarely available in practical situations. This paper presents a novel scheme to validate and compare the clustering results objectively. Additionally, the proposed scheme considers all the steps prior to the clustering algorithm, including the pre-processing and dimensionality reduction steps, in order to provide recommendations over the complete framework. Accordingly, the proposed strategy is shown to provide better, unbiased, and uniform recommendations as compared to the standard Clustering Validity Indices.
Once integrated into clinical care, patient risk stratification models may perform worse compared to their retrospective performance. To date, it is widely accepted that performance will degrade over time due to changes in care processes and patient populations. However, the extent to which this occurs is poorly understood, in part because few researchers report prospective validation performance. In this study, we compare the 2020-2021 (20-21) prospective performance of a patient risk stratification model for predicting healthcare-associated infections to a 2019-2020 (19-20) retrospective validation of the same model. We define the difference in retrospective and prospective performance as the performance gap. We estimate how i) temporal shift, i.e., changes in clinical workflows and patient populations, and ii) infrastructure shift, i.e., changes in access, extraction and transformation of data, both contribute to the performance gap. Applied prospectively to 26,864 hospital encounters during a twelve-month period from July 2020 to June 2021, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.767 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.737, 0.801) and a Brier score of 0.189 (95% CI: 0.186, 0.191). Prospective performance decreased slightly compared to 19-20 retrospective performance, in which the model achieved an AUROC of 0.778 (95% CI: 0.744, 0.815) and a Brier score of 0.163 (95% CI: 0.161, 0.165). The resulting performance gap was primarily due to infrastructure shift and not temporal shift. So long as we continue to develop and validate models using data stored in large research data warehouses, we must consider differences in how and when data are accessed, measure how these differences may affect prospective performance, and work to mitigate those differences.
On-demand ride-pooling (e.g., UberPool) has recently become popular because of its ability to lower costs for passengers while simultaneously increasing revenue for drivers and aggregation companies. Unlike in Taxi on Demand (ToD) services -- where a vehicle is only assigned one passenger at a time -- in on-demand ride-pooling, each (possibly partially filled) vehicle can be assigned a group of passenger requests with multiple different origin and destination pairs. To ensure near real-time response, existing solutions to the real-time ride-pooling problem are myopic in that they optimise the objective (e.g., maximise the number of passengers served) for the current time step without considering its effect on future assignments. This is because even a myopic assignment in ride-pooling involves considering what combinations of passenger requests that can be assigned to vehicles, which adds a layer of combinatorial complexity to the ToD problem. A popular approach that addresses the limitations of myopic assignments in ToD problems is Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP). Existing ADP methods for ToD can only handle Linear Program (LP) based assignments, however, while the assignment problem in ride-pooling requires an Integer Linear Program (ILP) with bad LP relaxations. To this end, our key technical contribution is in providing a general ADP method that can learn from ILP-based assignments. Additionally, we handle the extra combinatorial complexity from combinations of passenger requests by using a Neural Network based approximate value function and show a connection to Deep Reinforcement Learning that allows us to learn this value-function with increased stability and sample-efficiency. We show that our approach outperforms past approaches on a real-world dataset by up to 16%, a significant improvement in city-scale transportation problems.
This paper considers the potential impact that the nascent technology of quantum computing may have on society. It focuses on three areas: cryptography, optimization, and simulation of quantum systems. We will also discuss some ethical aspects of these developments, and ways to mitigate the risks.
Recently, the online car-hailing service, Didi, has emerged as a leader in the sharing economy. Used by passengers and drivers extensive, it becomes increasingly important for the car-hailing service providers to minimize the waiting time of passengers and optimize the vehicle utilization, thus to improve the overall user experience. Therefore, the supply-demand estimation is an indispensable ingredient of an efficient online car-hailing service. To improve the accuracy of the estimation results, we analyze the implicit relationships between the points of Interest (POI) and the supply-demand gap in this paper. The different categories of POIs have positive or negative effects on the estimation, we propose a POI selection scheme and incorporate it into XGBoost [1] to achieve more accurate estimation results. Our experiment demonstrates our method provides more accurate estimation results and more stable estimation results than the existing methods.
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