No Arabic abstract
With the global refugee crisis at a historic high, there is a growing need to assess the impact of refugee settlements on their hosting countries and surrounding environments. Because fires are an important land management practice in smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, burned area (BA) mappings can help provide information about the impacts of land management practices on local environments. However, a lack of BA ground-truth data in much of sub-Saharan Africa limits the use of highly scalable deep learning (DL) techniques for such BA mappings. In this work, we propose a scalable transfer learning approach to study BA dynamics in areas with little to no ground-truth data such as the West Nile region in Northern Uganda. We train a deep learning model on BA ground-truth data in Portugal and propose the application of that model on refugee-hosting districts in West Nile between 2015 and 2020. By comparing the district-level BA dynamic with the wider West Nile region, we aim to add understanding of the land management impacts of refugee settlements on their surrounding environments.
To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, decision-makers and public authorities have announced various non-pharmaceutical policies. Analyzing the causal impact of these policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19 is important for future policy-making. The main challenge here is the existence of unobserved confounders (e.g., vigilance of residents). Besides, as the confounders may be time-varying during COVID-19 (e.g., vigilance of residents changes in the course of the pandemic), it is even more difficult to capture them. In this paper, we study the problem of assessing the causal effects of different COVID-19 related policies on the outbreak dynamics in different counties at any given time period. To this end, we integrate data about different COVID-19 related policies (treatment) and outbreak dynamics (outcome) for different United States counties over time and analyze them with respect to variables that can infer the confounders, including the covariates of different counties, their relational information and historical information. Based on these data, we develop a neural network based causal effect estimation framework which leverages above information in observational data and learns the representations of time-varying (unobserved) confounders. In this way, it enables us to quantify the causal impact of policies at different granularities, ranging from a category of policies with a certain goal to a specific policy type in this category. Besides, experimental results also indicate the effectiveness of our proposed framework in capturing the confounders for quantifying the causal impact of different policies. More specifically, compared with several baseline methods, our framework captures the outbreak dynamics more accurately, and our assessment of policies is more consistent with existing epidemiological studies of COVID-19.
In a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC), predictive models of student behavior can support multiple aspects of learning, including instructor feedback and timely intervention. Ongoing courses, when the student outcomes are yet unknown, must rely on models trained from the historical data of previously offered courses. It is possible to transfer models, but they often have poor prediction performance. One reason is features that inadequately represent predictive attributes common to both courses. We present an automated transductive transfer learning approach that addresses this issue. It relies on problem-agnostic, temporal organization of the MOOC clickstream data, where, for each student, for multiple courses, a set of specific MOOC event types is expressed for each time unit. It consists of two alternative transfer methods based on representation learning with auto-encoders: a passive approach using transductive principal component analysis and an active approach that uses a correlation alignment loss term. With these methods, we investigate the transferability of dropout prediction across similar and dissimilar MOOCs and compare with known methods. Results show improved model transferability and suggest that the methods are capable of automatically learning a feature representation that expresses common predictive characteristics of MOOCs.
Complex environments and tasks pose a difficult problem for holistic end-to-end learning approaches. Decomposition of an environment into interacting controllable and non-controllable objects allows supervised learning for non-controllable objects and universal value function approximator learning for controllable objects. Such decomposition should lead to a shorter learning time and better generalisation capability. Here, we consider arcade-game environments as sets of interacting objects (controllable, non-controllable) and propose a set of functional modules that are specialized on mastering different types of interactions in a broad range of environments. The modules utilize regression, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning algorithms. Results of this case study in different Atari games suggest that human-level performance can be achieved by a learning agent within a human amount of game experience (10-15 minutes game time) when a proper decomposition of an environment or a task is provided. However, automatization of such decomposition remains a challenging problem. This case study shows how a model of a causal structure underlying an environment or a task can benefit learning time and generalization capability of the agent, and argues in favor of exploiting modular structure in contrast to using pure end-to-end learning approaches.
Computing devices such as laptops, tablets and mobile phones have become part of our daily lives. End users increasingly know more and more information about these devices. Further, more technically savvy end users know how such devices are being built and know how to choose one over the others. However, we cannot say the same about the Internet of Things (IoT) products. Due to its infancy nature of the marketplace, end users have very little idea about IoT products. To address this issue, we developed a method, a crowdsourced peer learning activity, supported by an online platform (OLYMPUS) to enable a group of learners to learn IoT products space better. We conducted two different user studies to validate that our tool enables better IoT education. Our method guide learners to think more deeply about IoT products and their design decisions. The learning platform we developed is open source and available for the community.
Knowledge Discovery plays a very important role in analyzing data and getting insights from them to drive better business decisions. Entrepreneurship in a Knowledge based economy contributes greatly to the development of a countrys economy. In this paper, we analyze surveys that were conducted on women in entrepreneurship in UAE. Relevant insights are extracted from the data that can help us to better understand the current landscape of women in entrepreneurship and predict the future as well. The features are analyzed using machine learning to drive better business decisions in the future.