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Register a new userExoplanets with ELT-METIS I: Estimating the direct imaging exoplanet yield around stars within 6.5 parsecs
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Direct imaging is a powerful exoplanet discovery technique that is complementary to other techniques and offers great promise in the era of 30 meter class telescopes. Space-based transit surveys have revolutionized our understanding of the frequency of planets at small orbital radii around Sun-like stars. The next generation of extremely large ground-based telescopes will have the angular resolution and sensitivity to directly image planets with $R < 4R_oplus$ around the very nearest stars. Here, we predict yields from a direct imaging survey of a volume-limited sample of Sun-like stars with the Mid-Infrared ELT Imager and Spectrograph (METIS) instrument, planned for the 39 m European Southern Observatory (ESO) Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) that is expected to be operational towards the end of the decade. Using Kepler occurrence rates, a sample of stars with spectral types A-K within 6.5 pc, and simulated contrast curves based on an advanced model of what is achievable from coronagraphic imaging with adaptive optics, we estimated the expected yield from METIS using Monte Carlo simulations. We find the METIS expected yield of planets in the N2 band (10.10 - 12.40 $mu$m) is 1.14 planets, which is greater than comparable observations in the L (3.70 - 3.95 $mu$m) and M (4.70 - 4.90 $mu$m) bands. We also determined a 24.6% chance of detecting at least one Jovian planet in the background limited regime assuming a 1 hour integration. We calculated the yield per star and estimate optimal observing revisit times to increase the yield. We also analyzed a northern hemisphere version of this survey and found there are additional targets worth considering. In conclusion, we present an observing strategy aimed to maximize the possible yield for limited telescope time, resulting in 1.48 expected planets in the N2 band.
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Combining high-contrast imaging with medium-resolution spectroscopy has been shown to significantly boost the direct detection of exoplanets. HARMONI, one of the first-light instruments to be mounted on ESOs ELT, will be equipped with a single-conjugated adaptive optics system to reach the diffraction limit of the ELT in H and K bands, a high-contrast module dedicated to exoplanet imaging, and a medium-resolution (up to R = 17 000) optical and near-infrared integral field spectrograph. Combined together, these systems will provide unprecedented contrast limits at separations between 50 and 400 mas. In this paper, we estimate the capabilities of the HARMONI high-contrast module for the direct detection of young giant exoplanets. We use an end-to-end model of the instrument to simulate observations based on realistic observing scenarios and conditions. We analyze these data with the so-called molecule mapping technique combined to a matched-filter approach, in order to disentangle the companions from the host star and tellurics, and increase the S/N of the planetary signal. We detect planets above 5-sigma at contrasts up to 16 mag and separations down to 75 mas in several spectral configurations of the instrument. We show that molecule mapping allows the detection of companions up to 2.5 mag fainter compared to state-of-the-art high-contrast imaging techniques based on angular differential imaging. We also demonstrate that the performance is not strongly affected by the spectral type of the host star, and that we reach close sensitivities for the best three quartiles of observing conditions at Armazones, which means that HARMONI could be used in near-critical observations during 60 to 70% of telescope time at the ELT. Finally, we simulate planets from population synthesis models to further explore the parameter space that HARMONI and its high-contrast module will soon open.
We quantify the scientific potential for exoplanet imaging with the Mid-infrared E-ELT Imager and Spectrograph (METIS) foreseen as one of the instruments of the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT). We focus on two main science cases: (1) the direct detection of known gas giant planets found by radial velocity (RV) searches; and (2) the direct detection of small (1 - 4 R_earth) planets around the nearest stars. Under the assumptions made in our modeling, in particular on the achievable inner working angle and sensitivity, our analyses reveal that within a reasonable amount of observing time METIS is able to image >20 already known, RV-detected planets in at least one filter. Many more suitable planets with dynamically determined masses are expected to be found in the coming years with the continuation of RV-surveys and the results from the GAIA astrometry mission. In addition, by extrapolating the statistics for close-in planets found by emph{Kepler}, we expect METIS might detect ~10 small planets with equilibrium temperatures between 200 - 500 K around the nearest stars. This means that (1) METIS will help constrain atmospheric models for gas giant planets by determining for a sizable sample their luminosity, temperature and orbital inclination; and (2) METIS might be the first instrument to image a nearby (super-)Earth-sized planet with an equilibrium temperature near that expected to enable liquid water on a planet surface.
Planet yield calculations may be used to inform the target selection strategy and science operations of space observatories. Forthcoming and proposed NASA missions, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx), and the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR), are expected to be equipped with sensitive coronagraphs and/or starshades. We are developing a suite of numerical simulations to quantify the extent to which ground-based radial velocity (RV) surveys could boost the detection efficiency of direct imaging missions. In this paper, we discuss the first step in the process of estimating planet yields: generating synthetic planetary systems consistent with observed occurrence rates from multiple detection methods. In an attempt to self-consistently populate stars with orbiting planets, it is found that naive extrapolation of occurrence rates (mass, semi-major axis) results in an unrealistically large number-density of Neptune-mass planets beyond the ice-line ($a gtrsim 5$au), causing dynamic interactions that would destabilize orbits. We impose a stability criterion for multi-planet systems based on mutual Hill radii separation. Considering the influence of compact configurations containing Jovian-mass and Neptune-mass planets results in a marked suppression in the number of terrestrial planets that can exist at large radii. This result has a pronounced impact on planet yield calculations particularly in regions accessible to high-contrast imaging and microlensing. The dynamically compact configurations and occurrence rates that we develop may be incorporated as input into joint RV and direct imaging yield calculations to place meaningful limits on the number of detectable planets with future missions.
The expected yield of potentially Earth-like planets is a useful metric for designing future exoplanet-imaging missions. Recent yield studies of direct-imaging missions have focused primarily on yield methods and trade studies using toy models of missions. Here we increase the fidelity of these calculations substantially, adopting more realistic exoplanet demographics as input, an improved target list, and a realistic distribution of exozodi levels. Most importantly, we define standardized inputs for instrument simulations, use these standards to directly compare the performance of realistic instrument designs, include the sensitivity of coronagraph contrast to stellar diameter, and adopt engineering-based throughputs and detector parameters. We apply these new high-fidelity yield models to study several critical design trades: monolithic vs segmented primary mirrors, on-axis vs off-axis secondary mirrors, and coronagraphs vs starshades. We show that as long as the gap size between segments is sufficiently small, there is no difference in yield for coronagraph-based missions with monolithic off-axis telescopes and segmented off-axis telescopes, assuming that the requisite engineering constraints imposed by the coronagraph can be met in both scenarios. We show that there is currently a factor of ~2 yield penalty for coronagraph-based missions with on-axis telescopes compared to off-axis telescopes, and note that there is room for improvement in coronagraph designs for on-axis telescopes. We also reproduce previous results in higher fidelity showing that the yields of coronagraph-based missions continue to increase with aperture size while the yields of starshade-based missions turnover at large apertures if refueling is not possible. Finally, we provide absolute yield numbers with uncertainties that include all major sources of astrophysical noise to guide future mission design.
One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. For this, we have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo simulations of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Within a 2.5-year initial search phase, an interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures covering a wavelength range between 4 and 18.5 $mu$m could detect up to ~550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R$_oplus$ with an integrated SNR$ge$7. At least ~160 of the detected exoplanets have radii $le$1.5 R$_oplus$. Depending on the observing scenario, ~25-45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 $_{oplus}$) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four times 3.5 m aperture size, the total number of detections can increase to up to ~770, including ~60-80 rocky, eHZ planets. With four times 1 m aperture size, the maximum detection yield is ~315 exoplanets, including $le$20 rocky, eHZ planets. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions. (abridged)
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