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Register a new userJoint Radial Velocity and Direct Imaging Planet Yield Calculations: I. Self-consistent Planet Populations
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Planet yield calculations may be used to inform the target selection strategy and science operations of space observatories. Forthcoming and proposed NASA missions, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx), and the Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR), are expected to be equipped with sensitive coronagraphs and/or starshades. We are developing a suite of numerical simulations to quantify the extent to which ground-based radial velocity (RV) surveys could boost the detection efficiency of direct imaging missions. In this paper, we discuss the first step in the process of estimating planet yields: generating synthetic planetary systems consistent with observed occurrence rates from multiple detection methods. In an attempt to self-consistently populate stars with orbiting planets, it is found that naive extrapolation of occurrence rates (mass, semi-major axis) results in an unrealistically large number-density of Neptune-mass planets beyond the ice-line ($a gtrsim 5$au), causing dynamic interactions that would destabilize orbits. We impose a stability criterion for multi-planet systems based on mutual Hill radii separation. Considering the influence of compact configurations containing Jovian-mass and Neptune-mass planets results in a marked suppression in the number of terrestrial planets that can exist at large radii. This result has a pronounced impact on planet yield calculations particularly in regions accessible to high-contrast imaging and microlensing. The dynamically compact configurations and occurrence rates that we develop may be incorporated as input into joint RV and direct imaging yield calculations to place meaningful limits on the number of detectable planets with future missions.
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Methods used to detect giant exoplanets can be broadly divided into two categories: indirect and direct. Indirect methods are more sensitive to planets with a small orbital period, whereas direct detection is more sensitive to planets orbiting at a large distance from their host star. %, and thus on long orbital period. This dichotomy makes it difficult to combine the two techniques on a single target at once. Simultaneous measurements made by direct and indirect techniques offer the possibility of determining the mass and luminosity of planets and a method of testing formation models. Here, we aim to show how long-baseline interferometric observations guided by radial-velocity can be used in such a way. We observed the recently-discovered giant planet $beta$ Pictoris c with GRAVITY, mounted on the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). This study constitutes the first direct confirmation of a planet discovered through radial velocity. We find that the planet has a temperature of $T = 1250pm50$,K and a dynamical mass of $M = 8.2pm0.8,M_{rm Jup}$. At $18.5pm2.5$,Myr, this puts $beta$ Pic c close to a hot start track, which is usually associated with formation via disk instability. Conversely, the planet orbits at a distance of 2.7,au, which is too close for disk instability to occur. The low apparent magnitude ($M_{rm K} = 14.3 pm 0.1$) favours a core accretion scenario. We suggest that this apparent contradiction is a sign of hot core accretion, for example, due to the mass of the planetary core or the existence of a high-temperature accretion shock during formation.
We present results from a data challenge posed to the radial velocity (RV) community: namely, to quantify the Bayesian evidence for n={0,1,2,3} planets in a set of synthetically generated RV datasets containing a range of planet signals. Participating teams were provided the same likelihood function and set of priors to use in their analysis. They applied a variety of methods to estimate Z, the marginal likelihood for each n-planet model, including cross-validation, the Laplace approximation, importance sampling, and nested sampling. We found the dispersion in Z across different methods grew with increasing n-planet models: ~3 for 0-planets, ~10 for 1-planet, ~100-1000 for 2-planets, and >10,000 for 3-planets. Most internal estimates of uncertainty in Z for individual methods significantly underestimated the observed dispersion across all methods. Methods that adopted a Monte Carlo approach by comparing estimates from multiple runs yielded plausible uncertainties. Finally, two classes of numerical algorithms (those based on importance and nested samplers) arrived at similar conclusions regarding the ratio of Zs for n and (n+1)-planet models. One analytic method (the Laplace approximation) demonstrated comparable performance. We express both optimism and caution: we demonstrate that it is practical to perform rigorous Bayesian model comparison for <=3-planet models, yet robust planet discoveries require researchers to better understand the uncertainty in Z and its connections to model selection.
Results from gravitational microlensing suggested the existence of a large population of free-floating planetary mass objects. The main conclusion from this work was partly based on constraints from a direct imaging survey. This survey determined upper limits for the frequency of stars that harbor giant exoplanets at large orbital separations. Aims. We want to verify to what extent upper limits from direct imaging do indeed constrain the microlensing results. We examine the current derivation of the upper limits used in the microlensing study and re-analyze the data from the corresponding imaging survey. We focus on the mass and semi-major axis ranges that are most relevant in context of the microlensing results. We also consider new results from a recent M-dwarf imaging survey as these objects are typically the host stars for planets detected by microlensing. We find that the upper limits currently applied in context of the microlensing results are probably underestimated. This means that a larger fraction of stars than assumed may harbor gas giant planets at larger orbital separations. Also, the way the upper limit is currently used to estimate the fraction of free-floating objects is not strictly correct. If the planetary surface density of giant planets around M-dwarfs is described as df_Planet ~ a^beta da, we find that beta ~ 0.5 - 0.6 is consistent with results from different observational studies probing semi-major axes between ~0.03 - 30 AU. Having a higher upper limit on the fraction of stars that may have gas giant planets at orbital separations probed by the microlensing data implies that more of the planets detected in the microlensing study are potentially bound to stars rather than free-floating. The current observational data are consistent with a rising planetary surface density for giant exoplanets around M-dwarfs out to ~30 AU.
We present observations with the planet finder SPHERE of a selected sample of the most promising radial velocity (RV) companions for high-contrast imaging. Using a Monte Carlo simulation to explore all the possible inclinations of the orbit of wide RV companions, we identified the systems with companions that could potentially be detected with SPHERE. We found the most favorable RV systems to observe are : HD,142, GJ,676, HD,39091, HIP,70849, and HD,30177 and carried out observations of these systems during SPHERE Guaranteed Time Observing (GTO). To reduce the intensity of the starlight and reveal faint companions, we used Principle Component Analysis (PCA) algorithms alongside angular and spectral differential imaging. We injected synthetic planets with known flux to evaluate the self-subtraction caused by our data reduction and to determine the 5$sigma$ contrast in the J band $vs$ separation for our reduced images. We estimated the upper limit on detectable companion mass around the selected stars from the contrast plot obtained from our data reduction. Although our observations enabled contrasts larger than 15 mag at a few tenths of arcsec from the host stars, we detected no planets. However, we were able to set upper mass limits around the stars using AMES-COND evolutionary models. We can exclude the presence of companions more massive than 25-28 MJup around these stars, confirming the substellar nature of these RV companions.
SPIRou is the newest spectropolarimeter and high-precision velocimeter that has recently been installed at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope on Maunakea, Hawaii. It operates in the near-infrared and simultaneously covers the 0.98-2.35 {mu}m domain at high spectral resolution. SPIRou is optimized for exoplanet search and characterization with the radial-velocity technique, and for polarization measurements in stellar lines and subsequent magnetic field studies. The host of the transiting hot Jupiter HD 189733 b has been observed during early science runs. We present the first near-infrared spectropolarimetric observations of the planet-hosting star as well as the stellar radial velocities as measured by SPIRou throughout the planetary orbit and two transit sequences. The planetary orbit and Rossiter-McLaughlin anomaly are both investigated and modeled. The orbital parameters and obliquity are all compatible with the values found in the optical. The obtained radial-velocity precision is compatible with about twice the photon-noise estimates for a K2 star under these conditions. The additional scatter around the orbit, of about 8 m/s, agrees with previous results that showed that the activity-induced scatter is the dominant factor. We analyzed the polarimetric signal, Zeeman broadening, and chromospheric activity tracers such as the 1083nm HeI and the 1282nm Pab{eta} lines to investigate stellar activity. First estimates of the average unsigned magnetic flux from the Zeeman broadening of the FeI lines give a magnetic flux of 290+-58 G, and the large-scale longitudinal field shows typical values of a few Gauss. These observations illustrate the potential of SPIRou for exoplanet characterization and magnetic and stellar activity studies.
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