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Register a new userData-driven Fair Resource Allocation For Novel Emerging Epidemics: A COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Case Study
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Maryam Akbari-Moghaddam
Publication date
2021
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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Epidemics are a serious public health threat, and the resources for mitigating their effects are typically limited. Decision-makers face challenges in forecasting the demand for these resources as prior information about the disease is often not available, the behaviour of the disease can periodically change (either naturally or as a result of public health policies) and can differ by geographical region. In this work, we discuss a model that is suitable for short-term real-time supply and demand forecasting during emerging outbreaks without having to rely on demographic information. We propose a data-driven mixed-integer programming (MIP) resource allocation model that assigns available resources to maximize a notion of fairness among the resource-demanding entities. Numerical results from applying our MIP model to a COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) case study suggest that our approach can help balance the supply and demand of limited products such as CCP and minimize the unmet demand ratios of the demand entities.
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The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures.
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