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Register a new userFactors affecting the COVID-19 risk in the US counties: an innovative approach by combining unsupervised and supervised learning
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The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported lower COVID-19 related cases and mortality. In this paper, the factors that could affect the risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality were analyzed in county level. An innovative method by using K-means clustering and several classification models is utilized to determine the most critical factors. Results showed that mean temperature, percent of people below poverty, percent of adults with obesity, air pressure, population density, wind speed, longitude, and percent of uninsured people were the most significant attributes
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The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for robust, scalable monitoring tools supporting stratification of high-risk patients. This research aims to develop and validate prediction models, using the UK Biobank, to estimate COVID-19 mortality risk in confirmed cases. From the 11,245 participants testing positive for COVID-19, we develop a data-driven random forest classification model with excellent performance (AUC: 0.91), using baseline characteristics, pre-existing conditions, symptoms, and vital signs, such that the score could dynamically assess mortality risk with disease deterioration. We also identify several significant novel predictors of COVID-19 mortality with equivalent or greater predictive value than established high-risk comorbidities, such as detailed anthropometrics and prior acute kidney failure, urinary tract infection, and pneumonias. The model design and feature selection enables utility in outpatient settings. Possible applications include supporting individual-level risk profiling and monitoring disease progression across patients with COVID-19 at-scale, especially in hospital-at-home settings.
We analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting point in each country the first day $d_i$ with 30 cases and we fitted for 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth. We looked then for linear correlations of the exponents $alpha$ with other variables, for a sample of 126 countries. We find a positive correlation, {it i.e. faster spread of COVID-19}, with high confidence level with the following variables, with respective $p$-value: low Temperature ($4cdot10^{-7}$), high ratio of old vs.~working-age people ($3cdot10^{-6}$), life expectancy ($8cdot10^{-6}$), number of international tourists ($1cdot10^{-5}$), earlier epidemic starting date $d_i$ ($2cdot10^{-5}$), high level of physical contact in greeting habits ($6 cdot 10^{-5}$), lung cancer prevalence ($6 cdot 10^{-5}$), obesity in males ($1 cdot 10^{-4}$), share of population in urban areas ($2cdot10^{-4}$), cancer prevalence ($3 cdot 10^{-4}$), alcohol consumption ($0.0019$), daily smoking prevalence ($0.0036$), UV index ($0.004$, 73 countries). We also find a correlation with low Vitamin D levels ($0.002-0.006$, smaller sample, $sim 50$ countries, to be confirmed on a larger sample). There is highly significant correlation also with blood types: positive correlation with types RH- ($3cdot10^{-5}$) and A+ ($3cdot10^{-3}$), negative correlation with B+ ($2cdot10^{-4}$). Several of the above variables are intercorrelated and likely to have common interpretations. We performed a Principal Component Analysis, in order to find their significant independent linear combinations. We also analyzed a possible bias: countries with low GDP-per capita might have less testing and we discuss correlation with the above variables.
The world is currently witnessing dangerous shifts in the epidemic of emerging SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of (COVID-19) coronavirus. The infection, and death numbers reported by World Health Organization (WHO) about this epidemic forecasts an increasing threats to the lives of people and the economics of countries. The greatest challenge that most governments are currently suffering from is the lack of a precise mechanism to detect unknown infected cases and predict the infection risk of COVID-19 virus. In response to mitigate this challenge, this study proposes a novel innovative approach for mitigating big challenges of (COVID-19) coronavirus propagation and contagion. This study propose a blockchain-based framework which investigate the possibility of utilizing peer-to peer, time stamping, and decentralized storage advantages of blockchain to build a new system for verifying and detecting the unknown infected cases of COVID-19 virus. Moreover, the proposed framework will enable the citizens to predict the infection risk of COVID-19 virus within conglomerates of people or within public places through a novel design of P2P-Mobile Application. The proposed approach is forecasted to produce an effective system able to support governments, health authorities, and citizens to take critical decision regarding the infection detection, infection prediction, and infection avoidance. The framework is currently being developed and implemented as a new system consists of four components, Infection Verifier Subsystem, Blockchain platform, P2P-Mobile Application, and Mass-Surveillance System. This four components work together for detecting the unknown infected cases and predicting and estimating the infection Risk of Corona Virus (COVID-19).
Labeling training examples at scale is a perennial challenge in machine learning. Self-supervision methods compensate for the lack of direct supervision by leveraging prior knowledge to automatically generate noisy labeled examples. Deep probabilistic logic (DPL) is a unifying framework for self-supervised learning that represents unknown labels as latent variables and incorporates diverse self-supervision using probabilistic logic to train a deep neural network end-to-end using variational EM. While DPL is successful at combining pre-specified self-supervision, manually crafting self-supervision to attain high accuracy may still be tedious and challenging. In this paper, we propose Self-Supervised Self-Supervision (S4), which adds to DPL the capability to learn new self-supervision automatically. Starting from an initial seed, S4 iteratively uses the deep neural network to propose new self supervision. These are either added directly (a form of structured self-training) or verified by a human expert (as in feature-based active learning). Experiments show that S4 is able to automatically propose accurate self-supervision and can often nearly match the accuracy of supervised methods with a tiny fraction of the human effort.
Studying the dynamics of COVID-19 is of paramount importance to understanding the efficiency of restrictive measures and develop strategies to defend against upcoming contagion waves. In this work, we study the spread of COVID-19 using a semi-supervised neural network and assuming a passive part of the population remains isolated from the virus dynamics. We start with an unsupervised neural network that learns solutions of differential equations for different modeling parameters and initial conditions. A supervised method then solves the inverse problem by estimating the optimal conditions that generate functions to fit the data for those infected by, recovered from, and deceased due to COVID-19. This semi-supervised approach incorporates real data to determine the evolution of the spread, the passive population, and the basic reproduction number for different countries.
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