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Register a new userSemi-supervised Neural Networks solve an inverse problem for modeling Covid-19 spread
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Studying the dynamics of COVID-19 is of paramount importance to understanding the efficiency of restrictive measures and develop strategies to defend against upcoming contagion waves. In this work, we study the spread of COVID-19 using a semi-supervised neural network and assuming a passive part of the population remains isolated from the virus dynamics. We start with an unsupervised neural network that learns solutions of differential equations for different modeling parameters and initial conditions. A supervised method then solves the inverse problem by estimating the optimal conditions that generate functions to fit the data for those infected by, recovered from, and deceased due to COVID-19. This semi-supervised approach incorporates real data to determine the evolution of the spread, the passive population, and the basic reproduction number for different countries.
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Neural architecture search (NAS) relies on a good controller to generate better architectures or predict the accuracy of given architectures. However, training the controller requires both abundant and high-quality pairs of architectures and their accuracy, while it is costly to evaluate an architecture and obtain its accuracy. In this paper, we propose SemiNAS, a semi-supervised NAS approach that leverages numerous unlabeled architectures (without evaluation and thus nearly no cost). Specifically, SemiNAS 1) trains an initial accuracy predictor with a small set of architecture-accuracy data pairs; 2) uses the trained accuracy predictor to predict the accuracy of large amount of architectures (without evaluation); and 3) adds the generated data pairs to the original data to further improve the predictor. The trained accuracy predictor can be applied to various NAS algorithms by predicting the accuracy of candidate architectures for them. SemiNAS has two advantages: 1) It reduces the computational cost under the same accuracy guarantee. On NASBench-101 benchmark dataset, it achieves comparable accuracy with gradient-based method while using only 1/7 architecture-accuracy pairs. 2) It achieves higher accuracy under the same computational cost. It achieves 94.02% test accuracy on NASBench-101, outperforming all the baselines when using the same number of architectures. On ImageNet, it achieves 23.5% top-1 error rate (under 600M FLOPS constraint) using 4 GPU-days for search. We further apply it to LJSpeech text to speech task and it achieves 97% intelligibility rate in the low-resource setting and 15% test error rate in the robustness setting, with 9%, 7% improvements over the baseline respectively.
We develop an agent-based model on a network meant to capture features unique to COVID-19 spread through a small residential college. We find that a safe reopening requires strong policy from administrators combined with cautious behavior from students. Strong policy includes weekly screening tests with quick turnaround and halving the campus population. Cautious behavior from students means wearing facemasks, socializing less, and showing up for COVID-19 testing. We also find that comprehensive testing and facemasks are the most effective single interventions, building closures can lead to infection spikes in other areas depending on student behavior, and faster return of test results significantly reduces total infections.
We established a Spatio-Temporal Neural Network, namely STNN, to forecast the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak worldwide in 2020. The basic structure of STNN is similar to the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) incorporating with not only temporal data but also spatial features. Two improved STNN architectures, namely the STNN with Augmented Spatial States (STNN-A) and the STNN with Input Gate (STNN-I), are proposed, which ensure more predictability and flexibility. STNN and its variants can be trained using Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm and its improved variants (e.g., Adam, AdaGrad and RMSProp). Our STNN models are compared with several classical epidemic prediction models, including the fully-connected neural network (BPNN), and the recurrent neural network (RNN), the classical curve fitting models, as well as the SEIR dynamical system model. Numerical simulations demonstrate that STNN models outperform many others by providing more accurate fitting and prediction, and by handling both spatial and temporal data.
Semi-supervised learning algorithms typically construct a weighted graph of data points to represent a manifold. However, an explicit graph representation is problematic for neural networks operating in the online setting. Here, we propose a feed-forward neural network capable of semi-supervised learning on manifolds without using an explicit graph representation. Our algorithm uses channels that represent localities on the manifold such that correlations between channels represent manifold structure. The proposed neural network has two layers. The first layer learns to build a representation of low-dimensional manifolds in the input data as proposed recently in [8]. The second learns to classify data using both occasional supervision and similarity of the manifold representation of the data. The channel carrying label information for the second layer is assumed to be silent most of the time. Learning in both layers is Hebbian, making our network design biologically plausible. We experimentally demonstrate the effect of semi-supervised learning on non-trivial manifolds.
Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50 states in the U.S. and have exhibited evolutionary clustering and complex triggering patterns. It is essential to understand the complex spacetime intertwined propagation of this disease so that accurate prediction or smart external intervention can be carried out. In this paper, we model the propagation of the COVID-19 as spatio-temporal point processes and propose a generative and intensity-free model to track the spread of the disease. We further adopt a generative adversarial imitation learning framework to learn the model parameters. In comparison with the traditional likelihood-based learning methods, this imitation learning framework does not need to prespecify an intensity function, which alleviates the model-misspecification. Moreover, the adversarial learning procedure bypasses the difficult-to-evaluate integral involved in the likelihood evaluation, which makes the model inference more scalable with the data and variables. We showcase the dynamic learning performance on the COVID-19 confirmed cases in the U.S. and evaluate the social distancing policy based on the learned generative model.
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