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Register a new userRevealing drivers and risks for power grid frequency stability with explainable AI
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Stable operation of the electrical power system requires the power grid frequency to stay within strict operational limits. With millions of consumers and thousands of generators connected to a power grid, detailed human-build models can no longer capture the full dynamics of this complex system. Modern machine learning algorithms provide a powerful alternative for system modelling and prediction, but the intrinsic black-box character of many models impedes scientific insights and poses severe security risks. Here, we show how eXplainable AI (XAI) alleviates these problems by revealing critical dependencies and influences on the power grid frequency. We accurately predict frequency stability indicators (such as RoCoF and Nadir) for three major European synchronous areas and identify key features that determine the power grid stability. Load ramps, specific generation ramps but also prices and forecast errors are central to understand and stabilize the power grid.
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Frequency fluctuations in power grids, caused by unpredictable renewable energy sources, consumer behavior and trading, need to be balanced to ensure stable grid operation. Standard smart grid solutions to mitigate large frequency excursions are based on centrally collecting data and give rise to security and privacy concerns. Furthermore, control of fluctuations is often tested by employing Gaussian perturbations. Here, we demonstrate that power grid frequency fluctuations are in general non-Gaussian, implying that large excursions are more likely than expected based on Gaussian modeling. We consider real power grid frequency measurements from Continental Europe and compare them to stochastic models and predictions based on Fokker-Planck equations. Furthermore, we review a decentral smart grid control scheme to limit these fluctuations. In particular, we derive a scaling law of how decentralized control actions reduce the magnitude of frequency fluctuations and demonstrate the power of these theoretical predictions using a test grid. Overall, we find that decentral smart grid control may reduce grid frequency excursions due to both Gaussian and non-Gaussian power fluctuations and thus offers an alternative pathway for mitigating fluctuation-induced risks.
Deterministic frequency deviations (DFDs) critically affect power grid frequency quality and power system stability. A better understanding of these events is urgently needed as frequency deviations have been growing in the European grid in recent years. DFDs are partially explained by the rapid adjustment of power generation following the intervals of electricity trading, but this intuitive picture fails especially before and around noonday. In this article, we provide a detailed analysis of DFDs and their relation to external features using methods from explainable Artificial Intelligence. We establish a machine learning model that well describes the daily cycle of DFDs and elucidate key interdependencies using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Thereby, we identify solar ramps as critical to explain patterns in the Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF).
The modern power grid features the high penetration of power converters, which widely employ a phase-locked loop (PLL) for grid synchronization. However, it has been pointed out that PLL can give rise to small-signal instabilities under weak grid conditions. This problem can be potentially resolved by operating the converters in grid-forming mode, namely, without using a PLL. Nonetheless, it has not been theoretically revealed how the placement of grid-forming converters enhances the small-signal stability of power systems integrated with large-scale PLL-based converters. This paper aims at filling this gap. Based on matrix perturbation theory, we explicitly demonstrate that the placement of grid-forming converters is equivalent to increasing the power grid strength and thus improving the small-signal stability of PLL-based converters. Furthermore, we investigate the optimal locations to place grid-forming converters by increasing the smallest eigenvalue of the weighted and Kron-reduced Laplacian matrix of the power network. The analysis in this paper is validated through high-fidelity simulation studies on a modified two-area test system and a modified 39-bus test system. This paper potentially lays the foundation for understanding the interaction between PLL-based (i.e., grid-following) converters and grid-forming converters, and coordinating their placements in future converter-dominated power systems.
The grid-forming converter is an important unit in the future power system with more inverter-interfaced generators. However, improving its performance is still a key challenge. This paper proposes a generalized architecture of the grid-forming converter from the view of multivariable feedback control. As a result, many of the existing popular control strategies, i.e., droop control, power synchronization control, virtual synchronous generator control, matching control, dispatchable virtual oscillator control, and their improved forms are unified into a multivariable feedback control transfer matrix working on several linear and nonlinear error signals. Meanwhile, unlike the traditional assumptions of decoupling between AC and DC control, active power and reactive power control, the proposed configuration simultaneously takes all of them into consideration, which therefore can provide better performance. As an example, a new multi-input-multi-output-based grid-forming (MIMO-GFM) control is proposed based on the generalized configuration. To cope with the multivariable feedback, an optimal and structured $H_{infty}$ synthesis is used to design the control parameters. At last, simulation and experimental results show superior performance and robustness of the proposed configuration and control.
The transition to a renewable energy system poses challenges for power grid operation and stability. Secondary control is key in restoring the power system to its reference following a disturbance. Underestimating the necessary control capacity may require emergency measures, such as load shedding. Hence, a solid understanding of the emerging risks and the driving factors of control is needed. In this contribution, we establish an explainable machine learning model for the activation of secondary control power in Germany. Training gradient boosted trees, we obtain an accurate description of control activation. Using SHapely Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, we investigate the dependency between control activation and external features such as the generation mix, forecasting errors, and electricity market data. Thereby, our analysis reveals drivers that lead to high reserve requirements in the German power system. Our transparent approach, utilizing open data and making machine learning models interpretable, opens new scientific discovery avenues.
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