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Register a new userReview of Low Voltage Load Forecasting: Methods, Applications, and Recommendations
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Added by
Georgios Giasemidis Dr
Publication date
2021
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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The increased digitalisation and monitoring of the energy system opens up numerous opportunities to decarbonise the energy system. Applications on low voltage, local networks, such as community energy markets and smart storage will facilitate decarbonisation, but they will require advanced control and management. Reliable forecasting will be a necessary component of many of these systems to anticipate key features and uncertainties. Despite this urgent need, there has not yet been an extensive investigation into the current state-of-the-art of low voltage level forecasts, other than at the smart meter level. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape, current approaches, core applications, challenges and recommendations. Another aim of this paper is to facilitate the continued improvement and advancement in this area. To this end, the paper also surveys some of the most relevant and promising trends. It establishes an open, community-driven list of the known low voltage level open datasets to encourage further research and development.
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Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This paper proposes a two-stage probabilistic load forecasting framework by integrating point forecast as a key probabilistic forecasting feature into PLF. In the first stage, all related features are utilized to train a point forecast model and also obtain the feature importance. In the second stage the forecasting model is trained, taking into consideration point forecast features, as well as selected feature subsets. During the testing period of the forecast model, the final probabilistic load forecast results are leveraged to obtain both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Numerical results obtained from ISO New England demand data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in the hour-ahead load forecasting, which uses the gradient boosting regression for the point forecasting and quantile regression neural networks for the probabilistic forecasting.
With the advances in tools and the rise of popularity, Bayesian statistics is becoming more important for undergraduates. In this study, we surveyed whether an undergraduate Bayesian course is offered or not in our sample of 152 high-ranking research universities and liberal arts colleges. For each identified Bayesian course, we examined how it fits into the institutions undergraduate curricula, such as majors and prerequisites. Through a series of course syllabi analyses, we explored the topics covered and their popularity in these courses, the adopted teaching and learning tools, such as software. This paper presents our findings on the current practices of Bayesian education at the undergraduate level. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations for programs that may consider offering Bayesian education to their students.
This paper presents a convolutional neural network (CNN) which can be used for forecasting electricity load profiles 36 hours into the future. In contrast to well established CNN architectures, the input data is one-dimensional. A parameter scanning of network parameters is conducted in order to gain information about the influence of the kernel size, number of filters, and dense size. The results show that a good forecast quality can already be achieved with basic CNN architectures.The method works not only for smooth sum loads of many hundred consumers, but also for the load of apartment buildings.
Short term load forecasts will play a key role in the implementation of smart electricity grids. They are required to optimise a wide range of potential network solutions on the low voltage (LV) grid, including integrating low carbon technologies (such as photovoltaics) and utilising battery storage devices. Despite the need for accurate LV level load forecasts, previous studies have mostly focused on forecasting at the individual household or building level using data from smart meters. In this study we provide detailed analysis of a variety of methods in terms of both point and probabilistic forecasting accuracy using data from 100 real LV feeders. Moreover, we investigate the effect of temperature (both actual and forecasts) on the accuracy of load forecasts. We present some important results on the drivers of LV forecasting accuracy that are crucial for the management of LV networks, along with an empirical comparison of forecast measures.
Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the mean square error (MSE) is a common-used loss function to guide the training of an accurate load forecasting model. However, the MSE loss function is unable to precisely reflect the real costs associated with forecasting errors because the cost caused by forecasting errors in the real power system is probably neither symmetric nor quadratic. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes a generalized cost-oriented load forecasting framework. Specifically, how to obtain a differentiable loss function that reflects real cost and how to integrate the loss function with regression models are studied. The economy and effectiveness of the proposed load forecasting method are verified by the case studies of an optimal dispatch problem that is built on the IEEE 30-bus system and the open load dataset from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 (GEFCom2012).
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