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Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the mean square error (MSE) is a common-used loss function to guide the training of an accurate load forecasting model. However, the MSE loss function is unable to precisely reflect the real costs associated with forecasting errors because the cost caused by forecasting errors in the real power system is probably neither symmetric nor quadratic. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes a generalized cost-oriented load forecasting framework. Specifically, how to obtain a differentiable loss function that reflects real cost and how to integrate the loss function with regression models are studied. The economy and effectiveness of the proposed load forecasting method are verified by the case studies of an optimal dispatch problem that is built on the IEEE 30-bus system and the open load dataset from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 (GEFCom2012).
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The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and its variants have been extensively employed in the load and renewable forecasting literature. Using this multiresolution decomposition, time series (TS) related to the historical load and renewable generation are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are less non-stationary and non-linear. As such, the prediction of the components can theoretically be carried out with notably higher precision. The EMD method is prone to several issues, including modal aliasing and boundary effect problems, but the TS decomposition-based load and renewable generation forecasting literature primarily focuses on comparing the performance of different decomposition approaches from the forecast accuracy standpoint; as a result, these problems have rarely been scrutinized. Underestimating these issues can lead to poor performance of the forecast model in real-time applications. This paper examines these issues and their importance in the model development stage. Using real-world data, EMD-based models are presented, and the impact of the boundary effect is illustrated.
Security is one of the biggest concern in power system operation. Recently, the emerging cyber security threats to operational functions of power systems arouse high public attention, and cybersecurity vulnerability thus become an emerging topic to evaluate compromised operational performance under cyber attack. In this paper, vulnerability of cyber security of load frequency control (LFC) system, which is the key component in energy manage system (EMS), is assessed by exploiting the system response to attacks on LFC variables/parameters. Two types of attacks: 1) injection attack and 2) scale attack are considered for evaluation. Two evaluation criteria reflecting the damage on system stability and power generation are used to quantify system loss under cyber attacks. Through a sensitivity-based method and attack tree models, the vulnerability of different LFC components is ranked. In addition, a post-intrusion cyber attack detection scheme is proposed. Classification-based schemes using typical classification algorithms are studied and compared to identify different attack scenarios.
The availability of large datasets is crucial for the development of new power system applications and tools; unfortunately, very few are publicly and freely available. We designed an end-to-end generative framework for the creation of synthetic bus-level time-series load data for transmission networks. The model is trained on a real dataset of over 70 Terabytes of synchrophasor measurements spanning multiple years. Leveraging a combination of principal component analysis and conditional generative adversarial network models, the scheme we developed allows for the generation of data at varying sampling rates (up to a maximum of 30 samples per second) and ranging in length from seconds to years. The generative models are tested extensively to verify that they correctly capture the diverse characteristics of real loads. Finally, we develop an open-source tool called LoadGAN which gives researchers access to the fully trained generative models via a graphical interface.
Demand response (DR) programs engage distributed demand-side resources, e.g., controllable residential and commercial loads, in providing ancillary services for electric power systems. Ensembles of these resources can help reducing system load peaks and meeting operational limits by adjusting their electric power consumption. To equip utilities or load aggregators with adequate decision-support tools for ensemble dispatch, we develop a Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach to optimally control load ensembles in a privacy-preserving manner. To this end, the concept of differential privacy is internalized into the MDP routine to protect transition probabilities and, thus, privacy of DR participants. The proposed approach also provides a trade-off between solution optimality and privacy guarantees, and is analyzed using real-world data from DR events in the New York University microgrid in New York, NY.
Stream applications are widely deployed on the cloud. While modern distributed streaming systems like Flink and Spark Streaming can schedule and execute them efficiently, streaming dataflows are often dynamically changing, which may cause computation imbalance and backpressure. We introduce AutoFlow, an automatic, hotspot-aware dynamic load balance system for streaming dataflows. It incorporates a centralized scheduler which monitors the load balance in the entire dataflow dynamically and implements state migrations correspondingly. The scheduler achieves these two tasks using a simple asynchronous distributed control message mechanism and a hotspot-diminishing algorithm. The timing mechanism supports implicit barriers and a highly efficient state-migration without global barriers or pauses to operators. It also supports a time-window based load-balance measurement and feeds them to the hotspot-diminishing algorithm without user interference. We implemented AutoFlow on top of Ray, an actor-based distributed execution framework. Our evaluation based on various streaming benchmark dataset shows that AutoFlow achieves good load-balance and incurs a low latency overhead in highly data-skew workload.
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