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Register a new userGraph Neural Network Based VC Investment Success Prediction
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Added by
Shiwei Lyu
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Predicting the start-ups that will eventually succeed is essentially important for the venture capital business and worldwide policy makers, especially at an early stage such that rewards can possibly be exponential. Though various empirical studies and data-driven modeling work have been done, the predictive power of the complex networks of stakeholders including venture capital investors, start-ups, and start-ups managing members has not been thoroughly explored. We design an incremental representation learning mechanism and a sequential learning model, utilizing the network structure together with the rich attributes of the nodes. In general, our method achieves the state-of-the-art prediction performance on a comprehensive dataset of global venture capital investments and surpasses human investors by large margins. Specifically, it excels at predicting the outcomes for start-ups in industries such as healthcare and IT. Meanwhile, we shed light on impacts on start-up success from observable factors including gender, education, and networking, which can be of value for practitioners as well as policy makers when they screen ventures of high growth potentials.
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An effective understanding of the contextual environment and accurate motion forecasting of surrounding agents is crucial for the development of autonomous vehicles and social mobile robots. This task is challenging since the behavior of an autonomous agent is not only affected by its own intention, but also by the static environment and surrounding dynamically interacting agents. Previous works focused on utilizing the spatial and temporal information in time domain while not sufficiently taking advantage of the cues in frequency domain. To this end, we propose a Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network (SpecTGNN), which can capture inter-agent correlations and temporal dependency simultaneously in frequency domain in addition to time domain. SpecTGNN operates on both an agent graph with dynamic state information and an environment graph with the features extracted from context images in two streams. The model integrates graph Fourier transform, spectral graph convolution and temporal gated convolution to encode history information and forecast future trajectories. Moreover, we incorporate a multi-head spatio-temporal attention mechanism to mitigate the effect of error propagation in a long time horizon. We demonstrate the performance of SpecTGNN on two public trajectory prediction benchmark datasets, which achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of prediction accuracy.
Community detection, aiming to group the graph nodes into clusters with dense inner-connection, is a fundamental graph mining task. Recently, it has been studied on the heterogeneous graph, which contains multiple types of nodes and edges, posing great challenges for modeling the high-order relationship between nodes. With the surge of graph embedding mechanism, it has also been adopted to community detection. A remarkable group of works use the meta-path to capture the high-order relationship between nodes and embed them into nodes embedding to facilitate community detection. However, defining meaningful meta-paths requires much domain knowledge, which largely limits their applications, especially on schema-rich heterogeneous graphs like knowledge graphs. To alleviate this issue, in this paper, we propose to exploit the context path to capture the high-order relationship between nodes, and build a Context Path-based Graph Neural Network (CP-GNN) model. It recursively embeds the high-order relationship between nodes into the node embedding with attention mechanisms to discriminate the importance of different relationships. By maximizing the expectation of the co-occurrence of nodes connected by context paths, the model can learn the nodes embeddings that both well preserve the high-order relationship between nodes and are helpful for community detection. Extensive experimental results on four real-world datasets show that CP-GNN outperforms the state-of-the-art community detection methods.
Link prediction is one of the central problems in graph mining. However, recent studies highlight the importance of higher-order network analysis, where complex structures called motifs are the first-class citizens. We first show that existing link prediction schemes fail to effectively predict motifs. To alleviate this, we establish a general motif prediction problem and we propose several heuristics that assess the chances for a specified motif to appear. To make the scores realistic, our heuristics consider - among others - correlations between links, i.e., the potential impact of some arriving links on the appearance of other links in a given motif. Finally, for highest accuracy, we develop a graph neural network (GNN) architecture for motif prediction. Our architecture offers vertex features and sampling schemes that capture the rich structural properties of motifs. While our heuristics are fast and do not need any training, GNNs ensure highest accuracy of predicting motifs, both for dense (e.g., k-cliques) and for sparse ones (e.g., k-stars). We consistently outperform the best available competitor by more than 10% on average and up to 32% in area under the curve. Importantly, the advantages of our approach over schemes based on uncorrelated link prediction increase with the increasing motif size and complexity. We also successfully apply our architecture for predicting more arbitrary clusters and communities, illustrating its potential for graph mining beyond motif analysis.
Network embedding methods map a networks nodes to vectors in an embedding space, in such a way that these representations are useful for estimating some notion of similarity or proximity between pairs of nodes in the network. The quality of these node representations is then showcased through results of downstream prediction tasks. Commonly used benchmark tasks such as link prediction, however, present complex evaluation pipelines and an abundance of design choices. This, together with a lack of standardized evaluation setups can obscure the real progress in the field. In this paper, we aim to shed light on the state-of-the-art of network embedding methods for link prediction and show, using a consistent evaluation pipeline, that only thin progress has been made over the last years. The newly conducted benchmark that we present here, including 17 embedding methods, also shows that many approaches are outperformed even by simple heuristics. Finally, we argue that standardized evaluation tools can repair this situation and boost future progress in this field.
The graph-based model can help to detect suspicious fraud online. Owing to the development of Graph Neural Networks~(GNNs), prior research work has proposed many GNN-based fraud detection frameworks based on either homogeneous graphs or heterogeneous graphs. These work follow the existing GNN framework by aggregating the neighboring information to learn the node embedding, which lays on the assumption that the neighbors share similar context, features, and relations. However, the inconsistency problem is hardly investigated, i.e., the context inconsistency, feature inconsistency, and relation inconsistency. In this paper, we introduce these inconsistencies and design a new GNN framework, $mathsf{GraphConsis}$, to tackle the inconsistency problem: (1) for the context inconsistency, we propose to combine the context embeddings with node features, (2) for the feature inconsistency, we design a consistency score to filter the inconsistent neighbors and generate corresponding sampling probability, and (3) for the relation inconsistency, we learn a relation attention weights associated with the sampled nodes. Empirical analysis on four datasets indicates the inconsistency problem is crucial in a fraud detection task. The extensive experiments prove the effectiveness of $mathsf{GraphConsis}$. We also released a GNN-based fraud detection toolbox with implementations of SOTA models. The code is available at https://github.com/safe-graph/DGFraud.
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