No Arabic abstract
Optimal control under uncertainty is a prevailing challenge in control, due to the difficulty in producing tractable solutions for the stochastic optimization problem. By framing the control problem as one of input estimation, advanced approximate inference techniques can be used to handle the statistical approximations in a principled and practical manner. Analyzing the Gaussian setting, we present a solver capable of several stochastic control methods, and was found to be superior to popular baselines on nonlinear simulated tasks. We draw connections that relate this inference formulation to previous approaches for stochastic optimal control, and outline several advantages that this inference view brings due to its statistical nature.
Optimal control of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is a major challenge in the domain of robot learning. Given the intractability of the global control problem, state-of-the-art algorithms focus on approximate sequential optimization techniques, that heavily rely on heuristics for regularization in order to achieve stable convergence. By building upon the duality between inference and control, we develop the view of Optimal Control as Input Estimation, devising a probabilistic stochastic optimal control formulation that iteratively infers the optimal input distributions by minimizing an upper bound of the control cost. Inference is performed through Expectation Maximization and message passing on a probabilistic graphical model of the dynamical system, and time-varying linear Gaussian feedback controllers are extracted from the joint state-action distribution. This perspective incorporates uncertainty quantification, effective initialization through priors, and the principled regularization inherent to the Bayesian treatment. Moreover, it can be shown that for deterministic linearized systems, our framework derives the maximum entropy linear quadratic optimal control law. We provide a complete and detailed derivation of our probabilistic approach and highlight its advantages in comparison to other deterministic and probabilistic solvers.
We study batch normalisation in the context of variational inference methods in Bayesian neural networks, such as mean-field or MC Dropout. We show that batch-normalisation does not affect the optimum of the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Furthermore, we study the Monte Carlo Batch Normalisation (MCBN) algorithm, proposed as an approximate inference technique parallel to MC Dropout, and show that for larger batch sizes, MCBN fails to capture epistemic uncertainty. Finally, we provide insights into what is required to fix this failure, namely having to view the mini-batch size as a variational parameter in MCBN. We comment on the asymptotics of the ELBO with respect to this variational parameter, showing that as dataset size increases towards infinity, the batch-size must increase towards infinity as well for MCBN to be a valid approximate inference technique.
In this paper, we propose an analytical method for performing tractable approximate Gaussian inference (TAGI) in Bayesian neural networks. The method enables the analytical Gaussian inference of the posterior mean vector and diagonal covariance matrix for weights and biases. The method proposed has a computational complexity of $mathcal{O}(n)$ with respect to the number of parameters $n$, and the tests performed on regression and classification benchmarks confirm that, for a same network architecture, it matches the performance of existing methods relying on gradient backpropagation.
This paper focuses on learning a model of system dynamics online while satisfying safety constraints. Our objective is to avoid offline system identification or hand-specified models and allow a system to safely and autonomously estimate and adapt its own model during operation. Given streaming observations of the system state, we use Bayesian learning to obtain a distribution over the system dynamics. Specifically, we propose a new matrix variate Gaussian process (MVGP) regression approach with an efficient covariance factorization to learn the drift and input gain terms of a nonlinear control-affine system. The MVGP distribution is then used to optimize the system behavior and ensure safety with high probability, by specifying control Lyapunov function (CLF) and control barrier function (CBF) chance constraints. We show that a safe control policy can be synthesized for systems with arbitrary relative degree and probabilistic CLF-CBF constraints by solving a second order cone program (SOCP). Finally, we extend our design to a self-triggering formulation, adaptively determining the time at which a new control input needs to be applied in order to guarantee safety.
Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov equivalence class thereof. However, a crucial aspect to acting intelligently upon the knowledge about causal structure which has been inferred from finite data demands reasoning about its uncertainty. For instance, planning interventions to find out more about the causal mechanisms that govern our data requires quantifying epistemic uncertainty over DAGs. While Bayesian causal inference allows to do so, the posterior over DAGs becomes intractable even for a small number of variables. Aiming to overcome this issue, we propose a form of variational inference over the graphs of Structural Causal Models (SCMs). To this end, we introduce a parametric variational family modelled by an autoregressive distribution over the space of discrete DAGs. Its number of parameters does not grow exponentially with the number of variables and can be tractably learned by maximising an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). In our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed variational posterior is able to provide a good approximation of the true posterior.