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Register a new userPreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-relativistic Electrons inside Earths Outer Radiation Belt
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Energetic electrons inside Earths outer Van Allen belt pose a major radiation threat to space-borne electronics that often play vital roles in our modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two Megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest due to their high penetrating ability, and thus forecasting these >=2 MeV electron levels has significant meaning to all space sectors. Here we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons inside the Earths outer radiation belt. The new version, called PreMevE-2E, focuses on forecasting ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer radiation belt, with no need of in-situ measurements except for at the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit. Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earth-orbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind conditions (speeds and densities) from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated a total of 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and also successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in-situ electron data from NASAs Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model generally outperforms individual models overs L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model provides reliable and high-fidelity 25-hr (~1-day) and 50-hr (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency values. Our results also suggest this new model is dominated by non-linear components at low L-shells (< ~4) for ultra-relativistic electrons, which is different from the dominance of linear components at all L-shells for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.
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Here we present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for Megaelectron-Volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earths outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, is demonstrated to make much improved forecasts, particularly at outer Lshells, by including upstream solar wind speeds to the models input parameter list. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial machine learning algorithms, a list of models were constructed, trained, validated and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts with Lshell-averaged performance efficiency values ~ 0.87 (~0.82). Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful one when compared to other models, which indicates the relationship between 1 MeV electron dynamics and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. It is also shown that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. This improved PreMevE model is driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure (a NOAA satellite in low-Earth-orbit, the solar wind monitor at the L1 point, and one LANL satellite in geosynchronous orbit) to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, and thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.
Aims. To better understand the radiation environment in low Earth orbit (LEO), the analysis of in-situ observations of a variety of particles, at different atmospheric heights, and in a wide range of energies, is needed. Methods. We present an analysis of energetic particles, indirectly detected by the Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) instrument on board ESAs Project for On-board Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) satellite as background signal. Combining Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT) observations with LYRA data for an overlapping period of time, we identified these particles as electrons with an energy range of 2 to 8 MeV. Results. The observed events are strongly correlated to geo-magnetic activity and appear even during modest disturbances. They are also well confined geographically within the L=4-6 McIlwain zone, which makes it possible to identify their source. Conclusions. Although highly energetic particles are commonly perturbing data acquisition of space instruments, we show in this work that ultra-relativistic electrons with energies in the range of 2-8 MeV are detected only at high latitudes, while not present in the South Atlantic Anomaly region.
We present multi-satellite observations indicating a strong correlation between large amplitude radiation belt whistler-mode waves and relativistic electron precipitation. On separate occasions during the Wind petal orbits and STEREO phasing orbits, Wind and STEREO recorded intense whistler-mode waves in the outer nightside equatorial radiation belt with peak-to-peak amplitudes exceeding 300 mV/m. During these intervals of intense wave activity, SAMPEX recorded relativistic electron microbursts in near magnetic conjunction with Wind and STEREO. The microburst precipitation exhibits a bursty temporal structure similar to that of the observed large amplitude wave packets, suggesting a connection between the two phenomena. Simulation studies corroborate this idea, showing that nonlinear wave--particle interactions may result in rapid energization and scattering on timescales comparable to those of the impulsive relativistic electron precipitation.
Energetic particle fluxes in the outer magnetosphere present a significant challenge to modelling efforts as they can vary by orders of magnitude in response to solar wind driving conditions. In this article, we demonstrate the ability to propagate test particles through global MHD simulations to a high level of precision and use this to map the cross-field radial transport associated with relativistic electrons undergoing drift orbit bifurcations (DOBs). The simulations predict DOBs primarily occur within an Earth radius of the magnetopause loss cone and appears significantly different for southward and northward interplanetary magnetic field orientations. The changes to the second invariant are shown to manifest as a dropout in particle fluxes with pitch angles close to 90$^circ$ and indicate DOBs are a cause of butterfly pitch angle distributions within the night-time sector. The convective electric field, not included in previous DOB studies, is found to have a significant effect on the resultant long term transport, and losses to the magnetopause and atmosphere are identified as a potential method for incorporating DOBs within Fokker-Planck transport models.
Foreshock transients upstream of Earths bow shock have been recently observed to accelerate electrons to many times their thermal energy. How such acceleration occurs is unknown, however. Using THEMIS case studies, we examine a subset of acceleration events (31 of 247 events) in foreshock transients with cores that exhibit gradual electron energy increases accompanied by low background magnetic field strength and large-amplitude magnetic fluctuations. Using the evolution of electron distributions and the energy increase rates at multiple spacecraft, we suggest that Fermi acceleration between a converging foreshock transients compressional boundary and the bow shock is responsible for the observed electron acceleration. We then show that a one-dimensional test particle simulation of an ideal Fermi acceleration model in fluctuating fields prescribed by the observations can reproduce the observed evolution of electron distributions, energy increase rate, and pitch-angle isotropy, providing further support for our hypothesis. Thus, Fermi acceleration is likely the principal electron acceleration mechanism in at least this subset of foreshock transient cores.
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