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Register a new userDrift Orbit Bifurcations and Cross-field Transport in the Outer Radiation Belt: Global MHD and Integrated Test-Particle Simulations
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Energetic particle fluxes in the outer magnetosphere present a significant challenge to modelling efforts as they can vary by orders of magnitude in response to solar wind driving conditions. In this article, we demonstrate the ability to propagate test particles through global MHD simulations to a high level of precision and use this to map the cross-field radial transport associated with relativistic electrons undergoing drift orbit bifurcations (DOBs). The simulations predict DOBs primarily occur within an Earth radius of the magnetopause loss cone and appears significantly different for southward and northward interplanetary magnetic field orientations. The changes to the second invariant are shown to manifest as a dropout in particle fluxes with pitch angles close to 90$^circ$ and indicate DOBs are a cause of butterfly pitch angle distributions within the night-time sector. The convective electric field, not included in previous DOB studies, is found to have a significant effect on the resultant long term transport, and losses to the magnetopause and atmosphere are identified as a potential method for incorporating DOBs within Fokker-Planck transport models.
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Here we present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for Megaelectron-Volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earths outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, is demonstrated to make much improved forecasts, particularly at outer Lshells, by including upstream solar wind speeds to the models input parameter list. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial machine learning algorithms, a list of models were constructed, trained, validated and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts with Lshell-averaged performance efficiency values ~ 0.87 (~0.82). Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful one when compared to other models, which indicates the relationship between 1 MeV electron dynamics and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. It is also shown that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. This improved PreMevE model is driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure (a NOAA satellite in low-Earth-orbit, the solar wind monitor at the L1 point, and one LANL satellite in geosynchronous orbit) to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, and thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.
Data from the Van Allen Probes have provided the first extensive evidence of non-linear (as opposed to quasi-linear) wave-particle interactions in space with the associated rapid (fraction of a bounce period) electron acceleration to hundreds of keV by Landau resonance in the parallel electric fields of time domain structures (TDS) and very oblique chorus waves. The experimental evidence, simulations, and theories of these processes are discussed. {bf Key words:} the radiation belts, wave-particle interaction, plasma waves and instabilities
Space plasma simulations have seen an increase in the use of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) with embedded Particle-in-Cell (PIC) models. This combined MHD-EPIC algorithm simulates some regions of interest using the kinetic PIC method while employing the MHD description in the rest of the domain. The MHD models are highly efficient and their fluid descriptions are valid for most part of the computational domain, thus making large-scale global simulations feasible. However, in practical applications, the regions where the kinetic effects are critical can be changing, appearing, disappearing and moving in the computational domain. If a static PIC region is used, this requires a much larger PIC domain than actually needed, which can increase the computational cost dramatically. To address the problem, we have developed a new method that is able to dynamically change the region of the computational domain where a PIC model is applied. We have implemented this new MHD with Adaptively Embedded PIC (MHD-AEPIC) algorithm using the BATS-R-US Hall MHD and the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS) as the semi-implicit PIC models. We describe the algorithm and present a test case of two merging flux ropes to demonstrate its accuracy. The implementation uses dynamic allocation/deallocation of memory and load balancing for efficient parallel execution. We evaluate the performance of MHD-AEPIC compared to MHD-EPIC and the scaling properties of the model to large number of computational cores.
Energetic electrons inside Earths outer Van Allen belt pose a major radiation threat to space-borne electronics that often play vital roles in our modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two Megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest due to their high penetrating ability, and thus forecasting these >=2 MeV electron levels has significant meaning to all space sectors. Here we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons inside the Earths outer radiation belt. The new version, called PreMevE-2E, focuses on forecasting ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer radiation belt, with no need of in-situ measurements except for at the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit. Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earth-orbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind conditions (speeds and densities) from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated a total of 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and also successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in-situ electron data from NASAs Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model generally outperforms individual models overs L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model provides reliable and high-fidelity 25-hr (~1-day) and 50-hr (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency values. Our results also suggest this new model is dominated by non-linear components at low L-shells (< ~4) for ultra-relativistic electrons, which is different from the dominance of linear components at all L-shells for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.
Fast reverse shocks (FRSs) cause the magnetosphere to expand, by contrast to the well-known compressions caused by the impact of fast forward shocks (FFS). Usually, FFSs are more geoeffective than FRSs, and consequently, the inner magnetosphere dynamic responses to both shock types can be quite different. In this study, we investigate for the first time the radiation belt response to an FRS impact using multi-satellite observations and numerical simulations. Spacecraft on the dayside observed decreases in magnetic field strength and energetic (~ 40-475 keV) particle fluxes. Timing analysis shows that the magnetic field signature propagated from the dayside to the nightside magnetosphere. Particles with different energies vary simultaneously at each spacecraft, implying a non-dispersive particle response to the shock. Spacecraft located at lower L-shells did not record any significant signatures. The observations indicate a local time dependence of the response associated with the shock inclination, with the clearest signatures being observed in the dusk-midnight sector. Simulations underestimate the amplitude of the magnetic field variations observed on the nightside. The observed decreases in the electron intensities result from a combination of radial gradient and adiabatic effects. The radial gradients in the spectral index appear to be the dominant contributor to the observed variations of electrons seen on the dayside (near noon and dusk) and on the nightside (near midnight). This study shows that even an FRS can affect the radiation belts significantly and provides an opportunity to understand their dynamic response to a sudden expansion of the magnetosphere.
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