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Register a new user{delta}-CLUE: Diverse Sets of Explanations for Uncertainty Estimates
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Dan Ley
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of explanations due to the lack of constraints placed on the explanation. Here we augment the original CLUE approach, to provide what we call $delta$-CLUE. CLUE indicates $it{one}$ way to change an input, while remaining on the data manifold, such that the model becomes more confident about its prediction. We instead return a $it{set}$ of plausible CLUEs: multiple, diverse inputs that are within a $delta$ ball of the original input in latent space, all yielding confident predictions.
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Recent work proposed $delta$-relevant inputs (or sets) as a probabilistic explanation for the predictions made by a classifier on a given input. $delta$-relevant sets are significant because they serve to relate (model-agnostic) Anchors with (model-accurate) PI- explanations, among other explanation approaches. Unfortunately, the computation of smallest size $delta$-relevant sets is complete for ${NP}^{PP}$, rendering their computation largely infeasible in practice. This paper investigates solutions for tackling the practical limitations of $delta$-relevant sets. First, the paper alternatively considers the computation of subset-minimal sets. Second, the paper studies concrete families of classifiers, including decision trees among others. For these cases, the paper shows that the computation of subset-minimal $delta$-relevant sets is in NP, and can be solved with a polynomial number of calls to an NP oracle. The experimental evaluation compares the proposed approach with heuristic explainers for the concrete case of the classifiers studied in the paper, and confirms the advantage of the proposed solution over the state of the art.
Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for interpreting uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, like Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). Our method, Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUE), indicates how to change an input, while keeping it on the data manifold, such that a BNN becomes more confident about the inputs prediction. We validate CLUE through 1) a novel framework for evaluating counterfactual explanations of uncertainty, 2) a series of ablation experiments, and 3) a user study. Our experiments show that CLUE outperforms baselines and enables practitioners to better understand which input patterns are responsible for predictive uncertainty.
We consider the core reinforcement-learning problem of on-policy value function approximation from a batch of trajectory data, and focus on various issues of Temporal Difference (TD) learning and Monte Carlo (MC) policy evaluation. The two methods are known to achieve complementary bias-variance trade-off properties, with TD tending to achieve lower variance but potentially higher bias. In this paper, we argue that the larger bias of TD can be a result of the amplification of local approximation errors. We address this by proposing an algorithm that adaptively switches between TD and MC in each state, thus mitigating the propagation of errors. Our method is based on learned confidence intervals that detect biases of TD estimates. We demonstrate in a variety of policy evaluation tasks that this simple adaptive algorithm performs competitively with the best approach in hindsight, suggesting that learned confidence intervals are a powerful technique for adapting policy evaluation to use TD or MC returns in a data-driven way.
Explainability for machine learning models has gained considerable attention within our research community given the importance of deploying more reliable machine-learning systems. In computer vision applications, generative counterfactual methods indicate how to perturb a models input to change its prediction, providing details about the models decision-making. Current counterfactual methods make ambiguous interpretations as they combine multiple biases of the model and the data in a single counterfactual interpretation of the models decision. Moreover, these methods tend to generate trivial counterfactuals about the models decision, as they often suggest to exaggerate or remove the presence of the attribute being classified. For the machine learning practitioner, these types of counterfactuals offer little value, since they provide no new information about undesired model or data biases. In this work, we propose a counterfactual method that learns a perturbation in a disentangled latent space that is constrained using a diversity-enforcing loss to uncover multiple valuable explanations about the models prediction. Further, we introduce a mechanism to prevent the model from producing trivial explanations. Experiments on CelebA and Synbols demonstrate that our model improves the success rate of producing high-quality valuable explanations when compared to previous state-of-the-art methods. We will publish the code.
Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which multiple, dependent actions are taken sequentially over time. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of actions and states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Building upon this characterization, we formally state the problem of finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes. In our problem formulation, the counterfactual explanation specifies an alternative sequence of actions differing in at most k actions from the observed sequence that could have led the observed process realization to a better outcome. Then, we introduce a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming to build a counterfactual policy that is guaranteed to always provide the optimal counterfactual explanation on every possible realization of the counterfactual environment dynamics. We validate our algorithm using both synthetic and real data from cognitive behavioral therapy and show that the counterfactual explanations our algorithm finds can provide valuable insights to enhance sequential decision making under uncertainty.
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