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Register a new userGetting a CLUE: A Method for Explaining Uncertainty Estimates
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Both uncertainty estimation and interpretability are important factors for trustworthy machine learning systems. However, there is little work at the intersection of these two areas. We address this gap by proposing a novel method for interpreting uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, like Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). Our method, Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUE), indicates how to change an input, while keeping it on the data manifold, such that a BNN becomes more confident about the inputs prediction. We validate CLUE through 1) a novel framework for evaluating counterfactual explanations of uncertainty, 2) a series of ablation experiments, and 3) a user study. Our experiments show that CLUE outperforms baselines and enables practitioners to better understand which input patterns are responsible for predictive uncertainty.
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To interpret uncertainty estimates from differentiable probabilistic models, recent work has proposed generating Counterfactual Latent Uncertainty Explanations (CLUEs). However, for a single input, such approaches could output a variety of explanations due to the lack of constraints placed on the explanation. Here we augment the original CLUE approach, to provide what we call $delta$-CLUE. CLUE indicates $it{one}$ way to change an input, while remaining on the data manifold, such that the model becomes more confident about its prediction. We instead return a $it{set}$ of plausible CLUEs: multiple, diverse inputs that are within a $delta$ ball of the original input in latent space, all yielding confident predictions.
Class imbalanced datasets are common in real-world applications that range from credit card fraud detection to rare disease diagnostics. Several popular classification algorithms assume that classes are approximately balanced, and hence build the accompanying objective function to maximize an overall accuracy rate. In these situations, optimizing the overall accuracy will lead to highly skewed predictions towards the majority class. Moreover, the negative business impact resulting from false positives (positive samples incorrectly classified as negative) can be detrimental. Many methods have been proposed to address the class imbalance problem, including methods such as over-sampling, under-sampling and cost-sensitive methods. In this paper, we consider the over-sampling method, where the aim is to augment the original dataset with synthetically created observations of the minority classes. In particular, inspired by the recent advances in generative modelling techniques (e.g., Variational Inference and Generative Adversarial Networks), we introduce a new oversampling technique based on variational autoencoders. Our experiments show that the new method is superior in augmenting datasets for downstream classification tasks when compared to traditional oversampling methods.
Wasserstein distance plays increasingly important roles in machine learning, stochastic programming and image processing. Major efforts have been under way to address its high computational complexity, some leading to approximate or regularized variations such as Sinkhorn distance. However, as we will demonstrate, regularized variations with large regularization parameter will degradate the performance in several important machine learning applications, and small regularization parameter will fail due to numerical stability issues with existing algorithms. We address this challenge by developing an Inexact Proximal point method for exact Optimal Transport problem (IPOT) with the proximal operator approximately evaluated at each iteration using projections to the probability simplex. The algorithm (a) converges to exact Wasserstein distance with theoretical guarantee and robust regularization parameter selection, (b) alleviates numerical stability issue, (c) has similar computational complexity to Sinkhorn, and (d) avoids the shrinking problem when apply to generative models. Furthermore, a new algorithm is proposed based on IPOT to obtain sharper Wasserstein barycenter.
Tensor decomposition methods allow us to learn the parameters of latent variable models through decomposition of low-order moments of data. A significant limitation of these algorithms is that there exists no general method to regularize them, and in the past regularization has mostly been performed using bespoke modifications to the algorithms, tailored for the particular form of the desired regularizer. We present a general method of regularizing tensor decomposition methods which can be used for any likelihood model that is learnable using tensor decomposition methods and any differentiable regularization function by supplementing the training data with pseudo-data. The pseudo-data is optimized to balance two terms: being as close as possible to the true data and enforcing the desired regularization. On synthetic, semi-synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that our method can improve inference accuracy and regularize for a broad range of goals including transfer learning, sparsity, interpretability, and orthogonality of the learned parameters.
We develop a Bregman proximal gradient method for structure learning on linear structural causal models. While the problem is non-convex, has high curvature and is in fact NP-hard, Bregman gradient methods allow us to neutralize at least part of the impact of curvature by measuring smoothness against a highly nonlinear kernel. This allows the method to make longer steps and significantly improves convergence. Each iteration requires solving a Bregman proximal step which is convex and efficiently solvable for our particular choice of kernel. We test our method on various synthetic and real data sets.
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