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Unsupervised Representations Predict Popularity of Peer-Shared Artifacts in an Online Learning Environment

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 Added by Renzhe Yu
 Publication date 2021
and research's language is English




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In online collaborative learning environments, students create content and construct their own knowledge through complex interactions over time. To facilitate effective social learning and inclusive participation in this context, insights are needed into the correspondence between student-contributed artifacts and their subsequent popularity among peers. In this study, we represent student artifacts by their (a) contextual action logs (b) textual content, and (c) set of instructor-specified features, and use these representations to predict artifact popularity measures. Through a mixture of predictive analysis and visual exploration, we find that the neural embedding representation, learned from contextual action logs, has the strongest predictions of popularity, ahead of instructors knowledge, which includes academic value and creativity ratings. Because this representation can be learnt without extensive human labeling effort, it opens up possibilities for shaping more inclusive student interactions on the fly in collaboration with instructors and students alike.



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We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the long-term dynamics of individual submissions from initial data. In the case of Digg, measuring access to given stories during the first two hours allows us to forecast their popularity 30 days ahead with remarkable accuracy, while downloads of Youtube videos need to be followed for 10 days to attain the same performance. The differing time scales of the predictions are shown to be due to differences in how content is consumed on the two portals: Digg stories quickly become outdated, while Youtube videos are still found long after they are initially submitted to the portal. We show that predictions are more accurate for submissions for which attention decays quickly, whereas predictions for evergreen content will be prone to larger errors.
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