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Register a new userImpacts of export restrictions on the global personal protective equipment trade network during COVID-19
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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a dramatic surge in demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) worldwide. Many countries have imposed export restrictions on PPE to ensure the sufficient domestic supply. The surging demand and export restrictions cause shortage contagions on the global PPE trade network. Here, we develop an integrated network model, which integrates a metapopulation model and a threshold model, to investigate the shortage contagion patterns. The metapopulation model captures disease contagion across countries. The threshold model captures the shortage contagion on the global PPE trade network. Results show that, the shortage contagion patterns are mainly decided by top exporters. Export restrictions exacerbate the shortages of PPE and cause the shortage contagion to transmit even faster than the disease contagion. Besides, export restrictions lead to ineffective and inefficient allocation of PPE around the world, which has no benefits for the world to fight against the pandemic.
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In the first half of 2020, several countries have responded to the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic by restricting their export of medical supplies. Such measures are meant to increase the domestic availability of critical goods, and are commonly used in times of crisis. Yet, not much is known about their impact, especially on countries imposing them. Here we show that export bans are, by and large, counterproductive. Using a model of shock diffusion through the network of international trade, we simulate the impact of restrictions under different scenarios. We observe that while they would be beneficial to a country implementing them in isolation, their generalized use makes most countries worse off relative to a no-ban scenario. As a corollary, we estimate that prices increase in many countries imposing the restrictions. We also find that the cost of restraining from export bans is small, even when others continue to implement them. Finally, we document a change in countries position within the international trade network, suggesting that export bans have geopolitical implications.
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