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Register a new userSelf-driven criticality in a stochastic epidemic model
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We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective reproduction rate fluctuates close to the critical value one, as observed for different epidemics. The main assumptions underlying the model are that the rate at which each individual becomes infected changes stochastically in time with a heavy-tailed steady state. The critical regime is characterized by an extremely long duration of the epidemic. Its stability is analyzed both numerically and analytically.
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We introduce a nonlinear structured population model with diffusion in the state space. Individuals are structured with respect to a continuous variable which represents a pathogen load. The class of uninfected individuals constitutes a special compartment that carries mass, hence the model is equipped with generalized Wentzell (or dynamic) boundary conditions. Our model is intended to describe the spread of infection of a vertically transmitted disease, for example Wolbachia in a mosquito population. Therefore the (infinite dimensional) nonlinearity arises in the recruitment term. First we establish global existence of solutions and the Principle of Linearised Stability for our model. Then, in our main result, we formulate simple conditions, which guarantee the existence of non-trivial steady states of the model. Our method utilizes an operator theoretic framework combined with a fixed point approach. Finally, in the last section we establish a sufficient condition for the local asymptotic stability of the positive steady state.
It has been proposed that adaptation in complex systems is optimized at the critical boundary between ordered and disordered dynamical regimes. Here, we review models of evolving dynamical networks that lead to self-organization of network topology based on a local coupling between a dynamical order parameter and rewiring of network connectivity, with convergence towards criticality in the limit of large network size $N$. In particular, two adaptive schemes are discussed and compared in the context of Boolean Networks and Threshold Networks: 1) Active nodes loose links, frozen nodes aquire new links, 2) Nodes with correlated activity connect, de-correlated nodes disconnect. These simple local adaptive rules lead to co-evolution of network topology and -dynamics. Adaptive networks are strikingly different from random networks: They evolve inhomogeneous topologies and broad plateaus of homeostatic regulation, dynamical activity exhibits $1/f$ noise and attractor periods obey a scale-free distribution. The proposed co-evolutionary mechanism of topological self-organization is robust against noise and does not depend on the details of dynamical transition rules. Using finite-size scaling, it is shown that networks converge to a self-organized critical state in the thermodynamic limit. Finally, we discuss open questions and directions for future research, and outline possible applications of these models to adaptive systems in diverse areas.
A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced following the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronisation state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronisation of stochastic oscillator is discussed.
In this paper we provide the derivation of a super compact pairwise model with only 4 equations in the context of describing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic dynamics on heterogenous networks. The super compact model is based on a new closure relation that involves not only the average degree but also the second and third moments of the degree distribution. Its derivation uses an a priori approximation of the degree distribution of susceptible nodes in terms of the degree distribution of the network. The new closure gives excellent agreement with heterogeneous pairwise models that contain significantly more differential equations.
The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage, but it also efficiently prevents the spread of the disease. In this work, the spread of COVID-19 under local quarantine measures is modeled using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model on complex networks. In this network approach, the links connected to isolated people are disconnected and then reinstated when they are released. This link dynamics leads to time-dependent reproduction number. Numerical simulations are performed on networks with reaction rates estimated from empirical data. The temporal pattern of the cumulative number of confirmed cases is then reproduced. The results show that a large number of asymptomatic infected patients are detected as they are quarantined together with infected patients. Additionally, possible consequences of the breakdowns of local quarantine measures and social distancing are considered.
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