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Register a new userDust productivity and impact collision of the asteroid (596) Scheila
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Photometric observations of asteroid (596) Scheila were obtained during and after its 2010 outburst. The estimated radius of the body (spherical approximation of the asteroidal body) was 51.2 km and 50.67 km for different methods. The ejected dust mass from the asteroid ranged from 2.5*10e7 to 3.4*10^7 kg for different methods. An impact mechanism for triggering Scheilas activity is discussed. A few days before the impact, Scheila passed through the corridors of two potential cometary streams.
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The June 2, 2018, impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroids position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireballs main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. 23 meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as a HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of about 156 cm diameter with high bulk density about 2.85 g/cm3, a relatively low albedo pV about 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of about 0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth-impacting orbit via the nu_6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit towards Earth occurred 22.8 +/- 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U-Pb age of 4563 +/- 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 +/- 6 Ma. A much younger Pb-Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 +/- 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vestas Veneneia impact basin.
Near-Earth asteroid 2014 AA entered the Earths atmosphere on 2014 January 2, only 21 hours after being discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey. In this paper we compute the trajectory of 2014 AA by combining the available optical astrometry, seven ground-based observations over 69 minutes, and the International Monitoring system detection of the atmospheric impact infrasonic airwaves in a least-squares orbit estimation filter. The combination of these two sources of observations results in a tremendous improvement in the orbit uncertainties. The impact time is 3:05 UT with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 6 min, while the impact location corresponds to a west longitude of 44.7 deg and a latitude of 13.1 deg with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 140 km. The minimum impact energy estimated from the infrasound data and the impact velocity result in an estimated minimum mass of 22.6 t. By propagating the trajectory of 2014 AA backwards we find that the only window for finding precovery observations is for the three days before its discovery.
ESA and NASA maintain asteroid hazard lists that contain all known asteroids with a non zero chance of colliding with the Earth in the future. Some software tools exist that are, either, capable of calculating the impact points of those asteroids, or that can estimate the impact effects of a given impact incident. However, no single tool is available that combines both aspects and enables a comprehensive risk analysis. The question is, thus, whether tools that can calculate impact location may be used to obtain a qualitative understanding of the asteroid impact risk distribution. To answer this question, two impact risk distributions that control for impact effect modelling were generated and compared. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool, in conjunction with the freely available software OrbFit, was used to project the impact probabilities of listed asteroids with a minimum diameter of 30 m onto the surface of the Earth representing a random sample (15% of all objects) of the hazard list. The resulting 261 impact corridors were visualized on a global map. Furthermore, the impact corridors were combined with Earth population data to estimate the simplified risk (without impact effects) and advanced risk (with impact effects) associated with the direct asteroid impacts that each nation faces from present to 2100 based on this sample. The relationship between risk and population size was examined for the 40 most populous countries and it was apparent that population size is a good proxy for relative risk. The advanced and simplified risk distributions were compared and the alteration of the results based on the introduction of physical impact effects was discussed. Population remained a valid proxy for relative impact risk, but the inclusion of impact effects resulted in significantly different risks, especially when considered at the national level.
The collisional and sticking properties of sub-mm-sized aggregates composed of protoplanetary dust analogue material are measured, including the statistical threshold velocity between sticking and bouncing, their surface energy and tensile strength within aggregate clusters. We performed an experiment on the REXUS 12 suborbital rocket. The protoplanetary dust analogue materials were micrometre-sized monodisperse and polydisperse SiO2 particles prepared into aggregates with sizes around 120 $mu$m and 330 $mu$m, respectively and volume filling factors around 0.37. During the experimental run of 150 s under reduced gravity conditions, the sticking of aggregates and the formation and fragmentation of clusters of up to a few millimetres in size was observed. The sticking probability of the sub-mm-sized dust aggregates could be derived for velocities decreasing from 22 to 3 cm/s. The transition from bouncing to sticking collisions happened at 12.7 cm/s for the smaller aggregates composed of monodisperse particles and at 11.5 and 11.7 cm/s for the larger aggregates composed of mono- and polydisperse dust particles, respectively. Using the pull-off force of sub-mm-sized dust aggregates from the clusters, the surface energy of the aggregates composed of monodisperse dust was derived to be 1.6x10-5 J/m2, which can be scaled down to 1.7x10-2 J/m2 for the micrometre-sized monomer particles and is in good agreement with previous measurements for silica particles. The tensile strengths of these aggregates within the clusters were derived to be 1.9 Pa and 1.6 Pa for the small and large dust aggregates, respectively. These values are in good agreement with recent tensile strength measurements for mm-sized silica aggregates. Using our data on the sticking-bouncing threshold, estimates of the maximum aggregate size can be given. For a minimum mass solar nebula model, aggregates can reach sizes of 1 cm.
In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in the long-term integration, and the different accelerations acting on the asteroid. The main source of uncertainty is the Yarkovsky effect, which we statistically model starting from 1950 DAs available physical characterization, astrometry, and dynamical properties. Before the release of 2012 radar data, this modeling suggests that 1950 DA has 99% likelihood of being a retrograde rotator. By using a 7-dimensional Monte Carlo sampling we map 1950 DAs uncertainty region to the 2880 close approach b-plane and find a 5 x 10^-4 impact probability. With the recently released 2012 radar observations, the direct rotation is definitely ruled out and the impact probability decreases to 2.5 x 10^-4.
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